Prop ideas re: Randy Moss TD catches

**INVEGA MAN** · 02-01-08, 05:31 PM

I think the Giants are going to take Moss out of the game by double teaming him. My bet would be the under.

**NEP Dynasty** · 02-01-08, 06:31 PM

Giants don't have the corners to cover Moss like the Jags and Chargers did in Mathis and Cromartie..but I think I'd still take the under.

**Justin7** · 02-01-08, 06:49 PM

Look at Moss's game log. In almost every game, he scores 2 TDs or 0... I think Invega Man might be on point.

Can you look at each Moss game, and say "here it was man-man the whole game" where he had 2, and say "here it was double coverage on him" where he had 0?

It's hard to double up on him the whole game though... Someone else will get open, especially if they know Moss is getting doubled the whole game.

**Dark Horse** · 02-02-08, 08:17 AM

That's the weak part in Giants defense. They don't have someone like Cromartie to take Moss out. Basically, Brady goes to Moss for long distance, Welker for medium distance, and Maroney for short distance.

Depending on odds, is it worth it to parlay a Moss over with a Welker under, and vice versa?

**mofome** · 02-02-08, 08:22 AM

will moss have a td
yes -115

no idea, im not a line maker. theres my guess.

**mofome** · 02-02-08, 08:24 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

Look at Moss's game log. In almost every game, he scores 2 TDs or 0... I think Invega Man might be on point.

Can you look at each Moss game, and say "here it was man-man the whole game" where he had 2, and say "here it was double coverage on him" where he had 0?

It's hard to double up on him the whole game though... Someone else will get open, especially if they know Moss is getting doubled the whole game.

ive watched moss catch a couple td passes that looked like punts into triple coverage this season. the first miami game comes to mind.

**cobra_king** · 02-02-08, 01:37 PM

Looking thru the Moss props, i think that if you feel Moss will be a factor in the game, taking Moss over 5.5 catches is the way to go. Juice is only -105 right now on the over, whereas Moss making a TD catch, the best juice i could find is -200, tho i'm sure there is a better number out there somewhere. If you feel Moss will be taken out of the game than +160 on the No TD catch would be the way to go IMO.

**Justin7** · 02-02-08, 06:33 PM

I made the fair price on "Moss score a TD" Yes at -300... so I played it at -180.

I was a bit surprised at the price on "Score 2 TDs" for him also - I took the +210 (+140 is fair).

Moss had a lot of 2-TD games... But guess what - this was a pretty normal distribution for "Poisson mean=1.5"

**SBR Lou** · 02-02-08, 06:36 PM

Looks good to me, Justin.

All signs point to Moss being worked in a bit more for this game, and the Giants are not sophisticated enough to contain him deep. The over 90yds or whatever it was once I last checked has value too.