Best game to use a half-time surrender option

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  • mathdotcom
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-24-08
    • 11689

    #1
    Best game to use a half-time surrender option
    Which game is most likely to be informative, by halftime, about who will eventually win.

    A low scoring game with a team favored by 3 points, 7points?
    A game where there is a huge dog?

    I like the huge dog option. I feel by halftime you have a good idea of whether the Colts are going to cover 14 points or not against the Bills, whereas the 3 point games are often quite close at halftime.

    Thoughts gentlemen?
  • ronald
    SBR MVP
    • 10-31-05
    • 4918

    #2
    Matthew,

    Which books offer this?
    Comment
    • Justin7
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 07-31-06
      • 8577

      #3
      Can you play MLs on it?
      Comment
      • mathdotcom
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 03-24-08
        • 11689

        #4
        Just spreads
        Comment
        • Justin7
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 07-31-06
          • 8577

          #5
          That's a very interesting problem. Is it a 1-shot opportunity? Or can you keep doing it each week, or for every game?
          Comment
          • Data
            SBR MVP
            • 11-27-07
            • 2236

            #6
            The lower the posted total, the lower the variance. The lower the variance, the higher the correlation between 1H and game results.
            Comment
            • mathdotcom
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 03-24-08
              • 11689

              #7
              Thank you sir

              Holding the total constant is there any reason to prefer a 7 pt spread to a 3 pt spread?
              Comment
              • Data
                SBR MVP
                • 11-27-07
                • 2236

                #8
                I think the bigger the spread, the higher the probability of the better team having a lack of motivation in either half resulting in higher variance making 1H results the lesser predictors. This hypothesis can be easily checked against a database that I do not posses due to my lack of interest in betting NFL.
                Last edited by Data; 10-02-10, 02:45 PM. Reason: ESL
                Comment
                • mathdotcom
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 03-24-08
                  • 11689

                  #9
                  That makes two of us Data

                  Thank you sir
                  Comment
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