Hey everyone. I know fishhead tells us he makes good money from finding scalps and arbs. Are scalps and arbs the same thing? I found some scalp earlier today on an MLB total but had problems with it. The big problem here is that one of those books i use to scalp is obviously matchbook and the commission always has me confused. I use scalpulator.com to get the numbers so i know how much to bet to gain a small profit. The main reason I like to do this is to help with rollover at my books. I know matchbook for baseball runlines is 0.8% commission if you take an offer and you actually get 0.1% rebate if you make a runline offer and it gets accepted.
But as an example, let say you find on
Matchbook
Giants/Dodgers Over +106
Under -107
Another Book
Giants/Dodgers Over +110
Under +100
You would make profit here if you bet Under -107 on Matchbook and Over +110 at another book. With scalpulator, let's just use $50 as an example. The reason why i don't want to use more is because if you bet $500 or $1000, and then the line moves if you don't make those 2 bets at same time, you are screwed and will have to take a small loss. Am i right here? I mean to be on the safe side, even if you want to put $2000 into a game, you shouldn't bet so much at a time, because someone might pull that offer away or the prices might change? I think betting it couple of times would be a good idea??
Let's just use the base amount as $50 for now.
According to scalpulator, lets just assume we got -107 and +110 at the 2 books and that both are regular books and NOT matchbook so there is no commission.
I would enter odds
-107
+110
And Max Bet: Win $50
The scalpulator comes out with
Bet 1: $53.50 to win $50 at -107
Bet 2: $49.29 to win $54.24 at +110
Total profit here shows $0.71. I mean if you win the first bet, you win $50 and lose $49.29 on 2nd bet so you win $0.71. If you win 2nd bet, you win $54.24 and lose $53.50 on 2nd bet so you win $.71.
But my main problem here is matchbook. Most of the time i take offers. Assuming this was the same situation but bet 1 was -107 for the Under at Matchbook and +110 for Book 2 for the over, how would i type the numbers into the scalpulator? Runlines are 0.8% commission when you accept so its essentially 100 X .08 = $.80 because at matchbook its on the base amount. So instead of the $50 base amount, it should be $49.20 base amount?
This scalpulator comes out with
Matchbook 1: $53.04 to win $49.57 at -107
Book 2: $48.68 to win $53.55 at +110
Total profit shows $0.52. If you win bet at matchbook, you win $49.57. But you have to deduct the 0.8% commission so its $49.57-.40= $49.17. $49.17-$48.68 loss at book 2 = $0.49 Profit. But if you win at book 2, you win $53.55 and lose $53.04 at matchbook for total profit of $0.51. Is there a reason the $0.49 and $0.51 don't match like it did with the first example? How is total profit with this arb according to scalpulator $0.52 and $0.49 if you win matchbook bet and $0.51 on winning the Book 2 bet. Can someone tell me what i did wrong here? Most importantly, is the way i am doing it correct with matchbook commission rates? Am i suppose to change the -107 to some other number as oppose to changing my base amount to $49.20 as oppose to $50?
I remembered i use to do this correctly easily back then when baseball had 1 percent commission rate no matter accept or offer and 2 percent commission for any other sport. It was really easy to do the arb because if its -107 and +110 with -107 on matchbook, all i had to do was change the odds to 107 X 1%= 1.07. Then 107+1.07 = 108.07 so all i had to do was plug -108.07 and +110 on scalpulator back when they had the old commission. Back then i recall they used the plus or negative sign you got but now they only take the base amount.
Thanks.
But as an example, let say you find on
Matchbook
Giants/Dodgers Over +106
Under -107
Another Book
Giants/Dodgers Over +110
Under +100
You would make profit here if you bet Under -107 on Matchbook and Over +110 at another book. With scalpulator, let's just use $50 as an example. The reason why i don't want to use more is because if you bet $500 or $1000, and then the line moves if you don't make those 2 bets at same time, you are screwed and will have to take a small loss. Am i right here? I mean to be on the safe side, even if you want to put $2000 into a game, you shouldn't bet so much at a time, because someone might pull that offer away or the prices might change? I think betting it couple of times would be a good idea??
Let's just use the base amount as $50 for now.
According to scalpulator, lets just assume we got -107 and +110 at the 2 books and that both are regular books and NOT matchbook so there is no commission.
I would enter odds
-107
+110
And Max Bet: Win $50
The scalpulator comes out with
Bet 1: $53.50 to win $50 at -107
Bet 2: $49.29 to win $54.24 at +110
Total profit here shows $0.71. I mean if you win the first bet, you win $50 and lose $49.29 on 2nd bet so you win $0.71. If you win 2nd bet, you win $54.24 and lose $53.50 on 2nd bet so you win $.71.
But my main problem here is matchbook. Most of the time i take offers. Assuming this was the same situation but bet 1 was -107 for the Under at Matchbook and +110 for Book 2 for the over, how would i type the numbers into the scalpulator? Runlines are 0.8% commission when you accept so its essentially 100 X .08 = $.80 because at matchbook its on the base amount. So instead of the $50 base amount, it should be $49.20 base amount?
This scalpulator comes out with
Matchbook 1: $53.04 to win $49.57 at -107
Book 2: $48.68 to win $53.55 at +110
Total profit shows $0.52. If you win bet at matchbook, you win $49.57. But you have to deduct the 0.8% commission so its $49.57-.40= $49.17. $49.17-$48.68 loss at book 2 = $0.49 Profit. But if you win at book 2, you win $53.55 and lose $53.04 at matchbook for total profit of $0.51. Is there a reason the $0.49 and $0.51 don't match like it did with the first example? How is total profit with this arb according to scalpulator $0.52 and $0.49 if you win matchbook bet and $0.51 on winning the Book 2 bet. Can someone tell me what i did wrong here? Most importantly, is the way i am doing it correct with matchbook commission rates? Am i suppose to change the -107 to some other number as oppose to changing my base amount to $49.20 as oppose to $50?
I remembered i use to do this correctly easily back then when baseball had 1 percent commission rate no matter accept or offer and 2 percent commission for any other sport. It was really easy to do the arb because if its -107 and +110 with -107 on matchbook, all i had to do was change the odds to 107 X 1%= 1.07. Then 107+1.07 = 108.07 so all i had to do was plug -108.07 and +110 on scalpulator back when they had the old commission. Back then i recall they used the plus or negative sign you got but now they only take the base amount.
Thanks.
