Spread / ML converter = thoughts

[Shonner]

OK, so how much do you guys use this to bet ML's?

If based on the spread, the ML should be +130, but it's +145, do you consider that a +EV bet? Would you generally take it?

Just want to see if anyone has used this to make bets and get their thoughts.

Thanks guys.

[uva3021]

what is the total

answer lies in pyth

[Shonner]

what is the total

answer lies in pyth

How does the total factor in?

[jgilmartin]

How does the total factor in?

Hockey is a very strong example of this, due to the fact that the scoring is low. The puckline is just the term for a spread in hockey, with the spread always being -1.5 / +1.5. Suppose there are two games being played on a given day.

Game A has a total of o5 -110 / u5 -110 and a moneyline of -150 / +130
Game B has a total of o6 -110 / u6 -110 and a moneyline of -150 / +130

The moneylines are the same, but will the puckline (spread) prices be the same? No, because if the total of the game is set to 5, it is much more likely that the game will be decided by one goal than if the total of the game is set to 6.

Obviously the lower the amount of scoring a sport has, the greater the impact the total has on the spread / ML.

[Peregrine Stoop]

I don't use it at all

games don't always have the same sort of distribution of possible results even given the exact same spread and total.
For instance, if team A is run & shoot and team B is power run based, the points will come in different ways. Run & shoot often feast or famish (back in the day).

[lordswing]

I ask Mr. Kelly what he thinks

[Shonner]

Hockey is a very strong example of this, due to the fact that the scoring is low. The puckline is just the term for a spread in hockey, with the spread always being -1.5 / +1.5. Suppose there are two games being played on a given day.

Game A has a total of o5 -110 / u5 -110 and a moneyline of -150 / +130
Game B has a total of o6 -110 / u6 -110 and a moneyline of -150 / +130

The moneylines are the same, but will the puckline (spread) prices be the same? No, because if the total of the game is set to 5, it is much more likely that the game will be decided by one goal than if the total of the game is set to 6.

Obviously the lower the amount of scoring a sport has, the greater the impact the total has on the spread / ML.

Yeah that is what I was thinking.

So basically, the Spread / ML converter is not very effective because it doesn't account totals? Agreed?

[Data]

OK, so how much do you guys use this to bet ML's?

If based on the spread, the ML should be +130, but it's +145, do you consider that a +EV bet? Would you generally take it?

Just want to see if anyone has used this to make bets and get their thoughts.

Thanks guys.

I am not frequent to PT and cannot put my finger on it but I am 80% sure that you are a ghost. Please stay within PT. Thanks.

[Shonner]

I am not frequent to PT and cannot put my finger on it but I am 80% sure that you are a ghost. Please stay within PT. Thanks.

ok, first off, you are wrong. i am not a ghost.

secondly, don't tell me where i can and can't post.

[Data]

By no means I am in position to tell you where to post. That is why I asked nicely, mostly trying to reach out to SBR management to keep the TT ghost free.

Shonner is jjgold's ghost: +250
Shonner is one of the veteran paid poster's ghost: +250
Shonner is a real poster, a posting prodigy at that: +1000

[Shonner]

By no means I am in position to tell you where to post. That is why I asked nicely, mostly trying to reach out to SBR management to keep the TT ghost free.

Shonner is jjgold's ghost: +250
Shonner is one of the veteran paid poster's ghost: +250
Shonner is a real poster, a posting prodigy at that: +1000

i'm not running around posting nonsense, read some of my posts here, i'm looking to LEARN and provide feedback when i can. you can think what you want though.