poisson quick check-up

[luegofuego]

Just wanted to make sure I haven't ****** anything up...

random book has a soccer prop that says "will team A score in both halves?"

i have team A's goal expectancy at 1.6, so roughly 0.8 in both halves (i know that's not entirely correct but it doesn't mater for this example). input into the poisson calculator, that means 55% chance of scoring in each. so it's really two -122 bets in one parlay, ie fair odds of +231. have i made a mistake anywhere here?

[Justin7]

If your assumptions are correct, your pricing is.

One of your assumptions is clearly wrong. If a team's goal expectancy is 1.6, it is NOT 0.8 in both halves.

[luegofuego]

cool justin7, thanks. you've been very helpful in this thread and many others. if there's anything i can do to make it up to you, just let me know.

and i guess you're hinting at goal distribution being higher in the other half. i accounted for that but didn't want to include it in the example because i didn't want to clutter it too much. i think it should be about 1.6*0.45=0.71=50.8%= -103 for the first half and 1.6*0.55=0.86=57.7%=-136 for the second half, so one -103 bet and one -136 bet in on parlay. ie +242. better?

[luegofuego]

actually that calc was for the exact 1.575 total goal expectancy for team A, sorry hehe

[luegofuego]

actually, come to think of it... if we are operating under the theory that goal distribution goes up after the first goal, shouldn't that mean that this bet is kind of like a correlated parlay in itself, increasing the value? or does the fact that goal distribution is skewed in the first halfs disadvantage remove that value, and then some? :S

[Justin7]

You're on the right track.