Wong teasers and hedging HELP 4 POINTS PLEASE

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  • subs
    SBR MVP
    • 04-30-10
    • 1412

    #1
    Wong teasers and hedging HELP 4 POINTS PLEASE
    hello every 1 - hope that your wagers are going well for you

    just a quick maths question?

    i have found 6 wong-able plays that i like and played every 2, 3, 4 and 6 teamer teasers for every combo.

    so far 4 teams have won .

    i still have Kansas city +8 and cinci + 8.5. the maths is getting a little complicated but i am considering a hedge and play for the middles on the last 2.

    i can get their opponents the brown -2.5 @ 1.73 and the ravens -2.5 @ 1.909

    can any1 PLEASE PLEASE help me with the maths? would hedging be - EV and how can i quantify this.

    Another question is that i have heard that you will get negative attention from the books if you play teasers @ + EV, what is the best way to disguise this and not lose too much EV. i play mostly live soccer (up well in the last 8 months) so will be wagering other sports too.

    thanks so much for taking the time to help, much appreciated - i will be sure to send points for any help here.
  • Pancho sanza
    SBR Sharp
    • 10-18-07
    • 386

    #2
    If you can let me know:

    A) Your current bankroll
    B) What you stand to win on the teasers, seperate these by amounts if KC covers +8 and If Cinn Covers +8.5

    I can answer it for you.

    You can use fractional amounts if you don't want to spill the beans.
    Comment
    • subs
      SBR MVP
      • 04-30-10
      • 1412

      #3
      hi Pancho sanza

      thanks for the reply. as you can guess from the figures below my next move will be to factor my bet sizes according to kelly which i should do by next week's wagers. i am now seeing how much better i would have done if i had worked it out properly, and i have realised that i missed a few combination out.

      Kansas and cinci lose = -$120
      Kansas loses = $450
      cinci loses = $550
      everything wins = $1700

      i made a bit of a mess of things but there it is....

      my bank is $15,000 but as i'm new to teasers and so i'm taking it really easy so far. but half kelly next week.

      i am really interested in the maths involved so that i can get better at this. are there any books that you can recommend?

      thank you very much Pancho
      Last edited by subs; 09-19-10, 05:54 AM.
      Comment
      • Pancho sanza
        SBR Sharp
        • 10-18-07
        • 386

        #4
        Optimal hedge is zero, do nothing.

        On a 15K roll with only $120 at risk, and less than 10 % chance of actually losing the $120, you don't hedge here.

        I'll do up a spreadsheet and attach it later.
        Comment
        • subs
          SBR MVP
          • 04-30-10
          • 1412

          #5
          thanks Pancho - really look forward to the spreadsheet

          would very much like to know how you did the maths here so i will look very closely at anything you can help me with.

          also i am only losing $120 if both teams lose but will obviously lose my potential pot of $1700.

          much appreciated
          Comment
          • subs
            SBR MVP
            • 04-30-10
            • 1412

            #6
            thanks pancho - and thanks cicnci. guess there are some happy BS teaser players - well done fellas. gonna take the wife out for dinner and buy my daughter some toys.

            you know i hate gambling, its just treat it like work and i need the money......

            when i was 18 my mom took me to a casino - i lost my whole months minimum wage in 10 mins. i have never enjoyed it since then. thanks mom good lesson.

            Last edited by subs; 09-19-10, 06:39 PM.
            Comment
            • Pancho sanza
              SBR Sharp
              • 10-18-07
              • 386

              #7
              A small hedge was warranted, my intial answer was a guess, so you saved a bit of money.
              Attached Files
              Comment
              • dimon
                SBR MVP
                • 08-14-09
                • 1159

                #8
                can I ask you what teams did you play that all but 2 won on the 18th...most college football???
                Comment
                • jolmscheid
                  Restricted User
                  • 02-20-10
                  • 3256

                  #9
                  I have been reading up on the WONG teasers...if they are truly +EV then why do the books offer them? Thanks for the help!
                  Comment
                  • dimon
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-14-09
                    • 1159

                    #10
                    they do not offer wong teasers...but they do offer 6 point teasers...and it is upon you to play them
                    Comment
                    • sharpcat
                      Restricted User
                      • 12-19-09
                      • 4516

                      #11
                      Basic strategy teasers in NCAAF are more likely than not going to be -EV because the 3 does not hit anywhere near as frequently in NCAAF compared to the NFL.

                      I would recommend that you not blindly tease the same numbers in NCAAF that you would tease in the NFL.
                      Comment
                      • sharpcat
                        Restricted User
                        • 12-19-09
                        • 4516

                        #12
                        Originally posted by jolmscheid
                        I have been reading up on the WONG teasers...if they are truly +EV then why do the books offer them? Thanks for the help!
                        BS teasers can quickly become -EV if you do not understand what you are doing and why you are doing it.
                        Comment
                        • jolmscheid
                          Restricted User
                          • 02-20-10
                          • 3256

                          #13
                          Originally posted by sharpcat
                          BS teasers can quickly become -EV if you do not understand what you are doing and why you are doing it.
                          Well the basic premise is just teasing across the 3 and the 7 correct? So basically teasing teams that are +1.5 to +2.5 and teams that are -7.5 to -8.5 and teasing them 6 points to catch both the 3 and the 7 since they are numbers that are landed on at a high rate in the NFL...
                          Comment
                          • That Foreign Guy
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 07-18-10
                            • 432

                            #14
                            Originally posted by jolmscheid
                            I have been reading up on the WONG teasers...if they are truly +EV then why do the books offer them? Thanks for the help!
                            Because every other teaser is a sucker bet and BS teasers can be too.
                            Comment
                            • subs
                              SBR MVP
                              • 04-30-10
                              • 1412

                              #15
                              Originally posted by dimon
                              can I ask you what teams did you play that all but 2 won on the 18th...most college football???

                              yea sure - i played LSU, georga tech, arkansas and miami ohio and NFL cinci and kansas

                              BS teasers can quickly become -EV if you do not understand what you are doing and why you are doing it.
                              Sharpcat (or any other sharps here) do you think it will be +EV if i play only the best ratios that i can find? are these called V spread? if i combine the 2 will i be pushing myself into +EV again?

                              so if the totals are really low and i am selective?

                              the other thing is will i need to disguise these a bit or play sides so that i do not get tossed out of the teasers or will i be ok?
                              i have been scalping and got tossed from 2 UK books already.


                              Pancho sanza thank you so much that excel is awesome. i have enrolled in an advanced excel course and i am going through the python and scraping tutorial so i'm not being lazy its just my skills are not there yet but they will be.

                              i sent you 100 points - much appreciated .
                              Last edited by subs; 09-20-10, 06:11 PM.
                              Comment
                              • subs
                                SBR MVP
                                • 04-30-10
                                • 1412

                                #16
                                edit sorry
                                Last edited by subs; 09-20-10, 11:56 PM.
                                Comment
                                • Peregrine Stoop
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 10-23-09
                                  • 869

                                  #17
                                  ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww at playing G Tech and Arkansas this past weekend

                                  I'm totally confused by only betting $120 out of a $15k bankroll on BS teasers, but it's a good thing you are betting so little with the teaser legs you are including and not including.
                                  Comment
                                  • djiddish98
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 11-13-09
                                    • 345

                                    #18
                                    anyone put in some thought on teasers that are NCAA + modest total (< 50) + teams with NFL-level of FG attempts?

                                    I might investigate, but if someone already has, let me know if it's a dead end.

                                    I also assume that while there are more college fball games available, the number of games that meet the criteria is low.
                                    Comment
                                    • hutennis
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 07-11-10
                                      • 847

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by sharpcat
                                      BS teasers can quickly become -EV if you do not understand what you are doing and why you are doing it.
                                      What are pitfalls?

                                      Over paying must be one. What else?
                                      Comment
                                      • subs
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 04-30-10
                                        • 1412

                                        #20
                                        Peregrine Stoop
                                        ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww at playing G Tech and Arkansas this past weekend

                                        I'm totally confused by only betting $120 out of a $15k bankroll on BS teasers, but it's a good thing you are betting so little with the teaser legs you are including and not including.
                                        thanks Peregrine Stoop, i am going to include only teams with a low total. if i do this will i still be -EV. BTW i think that u misunderstood -$120 was if only 4 NCAA teams won and no NFL wins (out of 6 only 2 were NFL). i bet relatively more on the NFL teasers and on teasers with NFL teams in the mix. what is the max % of your bank that you'd bet on these every week?

                                        i'll give all my remaining points away for a truthful yes or no or will owe 100 points to any1 who backs that up with some good data. some1 who is a pro please tell me if i'm still -EV on this. if you do not want to on the forum just message me "no" or "yes" - pretty please.

                                        thanks fellas.
                                        Last edited by subs; 09-21-10, 09:40 PM.
                                        Comment
                                        • Peregrine Stoop
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 10-23-09
                                          • 869

                                          #21
                                          the best you'll get are break-even legs IMO
                                          however, I still find some use for break-even legs to a teaser
                                          Comment
                                          • subs
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 04-30-10
                                            • 1412

                                            #22
                                            thanks Peregrine Stoop - sent all my points.
                                            Comment
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