home dogs in any sport

**Pokerjoe** · 09-17-10, 08:46 AM

I was waiting for this idea to rear it's ugly head.

Nevada, did you know that, just a few years ago, posters were saying you could make money just betting big CFB faves on the moneyline because huge underdogs NEVER won outright? Guys were citing samples of hundreds of games without a loss ATML. Bridgejumping heaven ... until Stanford beat USC and App St beat Michigan and such.

Now we'll have to listen to the opposite theory for quite a few years, because as long as the past few year's results are in the sample, it'll be +units.

In fact, I predict we'll soon hear about what a goldmine it is to just bet FCS teams on the moneyline against FBS teams.

**Bill the cop** · 09-17-10, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by Nevada

does anyone have the numbers in all sports on how often home dogs win? I'm talking about straight u in basketball and football. It seems like in the college sports that if you took all the home dogs, and just 1 big upset happend, you could go something like 1-8 and still be up for the day.

Here's some data on football, but without parameters I don't know how much value it has.

College, last 10 years, HDs 642-1432 for 31%, all dogs, 1659-4679 for 26.2%

NFL, last 16 years, HDs 463-807-1 for 36.5%, all dogs, 1373-2775-4 for 33.1%

**wrongturn** · 09-17-10, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by Nevada

does anyone have the numbers in all sports on how often home dogs win? I'm talking about straight u in basketball and football. It seems like in the college sports that if you took all the home dogs, and just 1 big upset happend, you could go something like 1-8 and still be up for the day.

Definitely not working by paying full juice on them. It could work by using exchange book, but balance volatility is expected.

**HoulihansTX** · 09-17-10, 11:31 AM

What about ATS?

**Bill the cop** · 09-17-10, 12:29 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

What about ATS?

NFL, HD ATS, 632-593-46 for 51.6%

College, HD ATS, 1060-1007-35 for 51.3%

**GoBlue2404** · 09-17-10, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by Bill the cop

NFL, HD ATS, 632-593-46 for 51.6%

College, HD ATS, 1060-1007-35 for 51.3%

You should give this info to all of the sports betting scammer er I mean, professor who claims home dogs b/t +1 and +13 hit at leat 54% ATS and according to him, the ATS win % actually increases as the number gets higher. He claimed home dogs of +13 were hitting at a 70% clip the last 15 years.

I went back and did my own homework and found very similar #'s to yours from the last 3 years. Home Dogs cover about half the time, maybe a touch more, but not above the 52.4% break even threshold.

**Bill the cop** · 09-17-10, 01:30 PM

Originally posted by GoBlue2404

You should give this info to all of the sports betting scammer er I mean, professor who claims home dogs b/t +1 and +13 hit at leat 54% ATS and according to him, the ATS win % actually increases as the number gets higher. He claimed home dogs of +13 were hitting at a 70% clip the last 15 years.

I went back and did my own homework and found very similar #'s to yours from the last 3 years. Home Dogs cover about half the time, maybe a touch more, but not above the 52.4% break even threshold.

Here ya go, HD +1 to +13 ATS, 849-791-29 for 51.8%

HD +13 ATS, 21-20-0 for 51.2%

The same subset teased 6 points, 1104-549-16 for 66.8% (a loser).

These are based on closing lines from Don Best over the last 10 years for college games.

**cant call it** · 09-17-10, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by Bill the cop

Here's some data on football, but without parameters I don't know how much value it has.

College, last 10 years, HDs 642-1432 for 31%, all dogs, 1659-4679 for 26.2%

NFL, last 16 years, HDs 463-807-1 for 36.5%, all dogs, 1373-2775-4 for 33.1%

wow. information guru.

**Flight** · 09-17-10, 09:28 PM

I encourage all recreational players I know to bet home dogs in all sports as much as possible. It is not +EV, but it is better than the random ass picks that they make.

**Flight** · 09-17-10, 09:29 PM

Bill the cop - we appreciate you sharing your data.

**Pokerjoe** · 09-18-10, 06:12 AM

Originally posted by Flight

I encourage all recreational players I know to bet home dogs in all sports as much as possible. It is not +EV, but it is better than the random ass picks that they make.

This is true.

It also shows how ridiculous it is to make a no-vig line out to be the midpoint between the top price and the bottom.

**Nevada** · 10-11-10, 01:04 AM

Originally posted by Bill the cop

Here's some data on football, but without parameters I don't know how much value it has.

College, last 10 years, HDs 642-1432 for 31%, all dogs, 1659-4679 for 26.2%

NFL, last 16 years, HDs 463-807-1 for 36.5%, all dogs, 1373-2775-4 for 33.1%

33.1 % for all nfl dogs? I thought it would be more than that... I wonder if there would still be profit because I know some of those dogs were huge dogs (+400 - +500)