Hypothetical wager

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  • Justin7
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-31-06
    • 8577

    #1
    Hypothetical wager
    If you have the opportunity to bet every single college football dog, getting 8 extra points but laying -240, would you?

    Same thing for favorites. Would you lay -240 to buy 8 points on favs? You can choose to not cross the "0" with the point buying... pass on all favs of 7.5 or less (or any other cutoff you choose).
  • xyz
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 02-14-08
    • 521

    #2
    Using the half point calculator, it seems like there is value in taking -240 to buy 8 points on the favorite when the spread is around 10 points. There are probably other spreads that would work. But crossing key numbers like 10, 7, and 3 seems valuable.
    Comment
    • Toples
      SBR Sharp
      • 12-18-07
      • 275

      #3
      yea there's value in those bets, but where can you get those odds???
      Comment
      • RickySteve
        Restricted User
        • 01-31-06
        • 3415

        #4
        Not blindly profitable, but many good spots.

        Originally posted by xyz
        Using the half point calculator, it seems like there is value in taking -240 to buy 8 points on the favorite when the spread is around 10 points. There are probably other spreads that would work. But crossing key numbers like 10, 7, and 3 seems valuable.
        You're doing it wrong.
        Comment
        • Cookie Monster
          SBR MVP
          • 12-05-08
          • 2251

          #5
          And you must parlay 2 bets or more... it is called teaser / pleaser
          Comment
          • trixtrix
            Restricted User
            • 04-13-06
            • 1897

            #6
            Originally posted by Cookie Monster
            And you must parlay 2 bets or more... it is called teaser / pleaser
            you get 8pts in a +100 teaser?? where?
            Comment
            • wrongturn
              SBR MVP
              • 06-06-06
              • 2228

              #7
              quick, somebody run a database query to see if 71+% of games covers the spread plus 8 points. if they do, the answer is yes, otherwise no.
              Comment
              • CHUBNUT
                SBR Sharp
                • 06-30-09
                • 321

                #8
                People need to understand odds like these quoted are across the board and literally hypothetical like most questions on here. In reality there's a good chance you will hit a bad run and go skint as you will not be getting the best of it on a regular basis. When are posters like Austin 7 going to give real life situations where prices move before you know it and betting stale lines mean discontinued accounts.
                Comment
                • HedgeHog
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 09-11-07
                  • 10128

                  #9
                  There's definitely value if you can pick your spots. For example, taking dogs of +2.5 and favs of -10.5, an 8pt buy has fair value of -300 if my math is right.

                  PS Betting all games at -240 with the 8 points would be -ev.
                  Last edited by HedgeHog; 09-14-10, 06:02 PM.
                  Comment
                  • Nomadik
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-03-10
                    • 1723

                    #10
                    No...
                    Comment
                    • HedgeHog
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 09-11-07
                      • 10128

                      #11
                      [quote=Justin7;6315093]If you have the opportunity to bet every single college football dog, getting 8 extra points but laying -240, would you?

                      Same thing for favorites. Would you lay -240 to buy 8 points on favs? You can choose to not cross the "0" with the point buying... pass on all favs of 7.5 or less (or any other cutoff you choose).[/quote]

                      I choose to only bet 2.5 dogs and 10.5 favs. How would I do at the 8pt buy for -240?
                      Comment
                      • Justin7
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 07-31-06
                        • 8577

                        #12
                        I think at 8.5, it becomes profitable to bet all of them. But at 8, the ones ID'ed by Hedgehog work well.
                        Comment
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