Advice on Hedging a bet?

**sickler** · 09-09-10, 01:09 AM

You could middle. Wait until closer to kickoff. Vikings will prolly be +5.5 or +6. If Saints win by 5 you middle.

**sickler** · 09-09-10, 01:14 AM

Also if you can get vikings +6 and are able to buy a half point to make it +6.5, a Saints win by 5 or 6 would win both your bets.

**Patrick McIrish** · 09-09-10, 01:18 AM

We hedge too much, it costs us whether we realize it or not. Unless it is a bankroll concern I would keep the bets you have. If someone told you last week they would give you Saints -4 risking $344 to win $893 you probably would ask can I get down more on the game at that price? Not look to give it away. Lot of value in what you hold right now.

In the future if you are going to hedge the last leg of your parlays just play smaller ones in the future and save yourself the trouble. Anyway if you absolutely must give away some of your profit maybe consider teasing the Vikes up to 10- or so? Saints win by 4 you push, win by 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10 you hit both sides. Work the math, either way you are guaranteed to win something.

Still do not like all this hedging, it is very expensive and costly to the roll. We find ourself in a great position and look to give it away. Good luck.

**Patrick McIrish** · 09-09-10, 01:23 AM

Disregard the tease information, it is late and I got a buzz. In fact disregard the whole post, LOL. Maybe someone sober will wonder bye. Good night.

**Gee** · 09-09-10, 02:16 AM

The question i suppose is whether there is any value in hedging a bet. You currently are getting +160 on the Saints, which you have $344 on.

If you hedged perfectly, you'd need to have $470ish on the Vikings at -110 to guarantee yourself $81.00 whoever wins. that can be adjusted in either direction.

It depends on you, your roll and what potentially losing $344 means to you. It probably isn't worth it if you're betting $343 across 3 parlays and the scalp is only $81.00... if $343 means a lot to you, then hedge for a portion of your liability.

you may get a middle if the line moves, but i wouldn't rely on that.

**Pokerjoe** · 09-09-10, 02:52 AM

Originally posted by Patrick McIrish

We hedge too much, it costs us whether we realize it or not. Unless it is a bankroll concern I would keep the bets you have. If someone told you last week they would give you Saints -4 risking $344 to win $893 you probably would ask can I get down more on the game at that price? Not look to give it away. Lot of value in what you hold right now.

In the future if you are going to hedge the last leg of your parlays just play smaller ones in the future and save yourself the trouble. Anyway if you absolutely must give away some of your profit maybe consider teasing the Vikes up to 10- or so? Saints win by 4 you push, win by 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10 you hit both sides. Work the math, either way you are guaranteed to win something.

Still do not like all this hedging, it is very expensive and costly to the roll. We find ourself in a great position and look to give it away. Good luck.

This is the right answer for the future.

But for now: wait until gametime and bet the other side.

Bet enough so that you don't feel stupid if the Saints don't cover, but not so much that you feel stupid if they do cover.

And understand that I'm only talking about how you'll feel because "how you'll feel" appears to be your only motivation to hedge.

Good luck.

**Pokerjoe** · 09-09-10, 02:54 AM

DP, obv.

**That Foreign Guy** · 09-09-10, 05:29 AM

More importantly, why bet a parlay if you then want to back out of it? Unless you were getting some special offer on this parlay I don't see the point of making a short term bet you intend to hedge out of.

Ironically I came here to post a hedge question so I am going to threadjack.

I am in a couple of soccer Survivor / Last Man Standing contents (started with ~1000 players in each middle of last season) and am down to the last 19 and 30 players respectively. Prizepool is £20,000 in one and £10,000 in the other so I have a good chunk of EV (I don't know exactly what it is because it depends on my opponents' teams left) - I am assuming it is prizepool / remaining players.

Problem is I have a weak pick this week so I want to hedge - I'm already using my once only "+draw" but still feel nervous. The complicating factor is obviously that I don't win if my Survivor pick wins, and I don't even know how much my EV increases. Is there any worthwhile math solution to how much to bet against my picks each week?

I approximated by dividing EV by number of weeks it is likely to take to realise that EV but there might be a better way or do I just gut feel it and bet enough on my picks' opponents so that the amount I win makes me semi-happy if my pick fails?

**ngates815** · 09-09-10, 05:44 AM

Take Vikings +3 @ +1XX

**Pokerjoe** · 09-09-10, 05:48 AM

Originally posted by That Foreign Guy

More importantly, why bet a parlay if you then want to back out of it? Unless you were getting some special offer on this parlay I don't see the point of making a short term bet you intend to hedge out of.

It doesn't matter at this point. As McIrish pointed out, he should have bet less to begin with. Nonetheless, given that he's sitting here now with more at risk than he wanted, hedging isn't horrible. Not learning from the mistake is horrible, but paying a little EV for the lesson isn't.

**wtt0315** · 09-09-10, 06:09 AM

hedge it why not

**RudyRuetigger** · 09-09-10, 06:11 AM

Patty McIrish is sharp as a fukkin nail

**AceKingHigh** · 09-09-10, 08:17 AM

They are going to win hopefully by a TD! so If $340 means a lot to you HEDGE , otherwise, you have a good bet going on here =)

**RudyRuetigger** · 09-09-10, 08:19 AM

if you ever consider hedging in this spot, patty mac and pokerjoe are right...it means you bet too much to begin with

**Wrecktangle** · 09-09-10, 08:20 AM

Agree with Irish, we tend to hedge too much and give away advantage for the "sure" thing. I wrote up a post in another forum (that I can't find) to the effect. Crap.

**u21c3f6** · 09-09-10, 12:39 PM

I don't play parlays but I do a lot of hedging. Before I can answer based on my perspective, what happens to the wager if the Saints win by exactly 4?

Joe.

PS. And do you win $893 or $549 (893-344)?

**gomiamigo** · 09-09-10, 12:41 PM

hedges never win

**ronjon619** · 09-09-10, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by gomiamigo

hedges never win

i agree......

wait until half time. If you LOVE the Saints so much you can watch the 1st half and have an idea if the Saints will cover.

**Pokerjoe** · 09-09-10, 06:52 PM

Here's the common mistake for parlay players:
They're comfortable betting x dollars a game, so they bet x dollars on a parlay. But when they get to the last leg, they find they have an 8x or 12x or whatever bet riding on that last game. And since we've already defined X as their comfort zone, they're out of their comfort zone with a high multiple of x. Thus, the hedge, which might be - financial EV but + emotional EV.

If you're betting for fun--for emotional EV--then a hedge is a good idea. You lock up that "good feeling that comes from winning" while allowing for more "good feeling that comes from winning" without risking "bad feeling that comes from losing."

**Pokerjoe** · 09-09-10, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by gomiamigo

hedges never win

Actually, properly done, hedges never lose. That's their point.

**HedgeHog** · 09-09-10, 07:10 PM

If you want to back off of your position, take Minn +4.5 +102 at MB.

**brxbmbers42** · 09-09-10, 07:10 PM

my head is ready to explode reading these responses

**Pokerjoe** · 09-09-10, 10:24 PM

Hopefully you hedged with Minny +5 and are loving life right now.

**ronjon619** · 09-09-10, 10:26 PM

that would be a nice call if he did

**Brp27345** · 09-09-10, 10:28 PM

He took Minny +7.5... saw it in another thread... made himself some nice money tonight!!!

**Brp27345** · 09-09-10, 10:29 PM

bought points but still!