Opening Line Math question for week 2 NCAAF

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  • Ratard
    SBR Rookie
    • 07-11-10
    • 15

    #1
    Opening Line Math question for week 2 NCAAF
    Here's what I do not understand regarding NCAA Football: The Lines come out, and immediately they move BEFORE they are even posted!
    I've read about "outlaw lines" and how "sharps" move the line by betting immediately when the lines come out. Is this what is happening when I see the new lines on Sunday Night? A couple example, right now on SBR are:
    1.GT opening was -7. Now -13 against Kansas.
    2.Duke -3 open, immediately to -5.
    And if you look at the lines you can see a few more.
    Who moves these lines? Sharps? Public? Or Books?
  • Dark Horse
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-14-05
    • 13764

    #2
    Originally posted by Ratard
    Who moves these lines? Sharps? Public? Or Books?
    Sharps. Very early line movement is never the public.

    Books may give a few sharps first crack at the line, before posting it.
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    • Ratard
      SBR Rookie
      • 07-11-10
      • 15

      #3
      Thanks!
      Comment
      • MadTiger
        SBR MVP
        • 04-19-09
        • 2724

        #4
        Many bookies like to give sharps the privilege of first crack at the lines. They let the "sharpen" the line. It actually is to the book's benefit to let a FEW people tighten up their opening line for the public. This is like insurance, in that it costs them a bit (a higher-percentage bettor putting some $$$ in play on the line), but saves them big dollars if the general public went wild on a weak line.
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        • Ratard
          SBR Rookie
          • 07-11-10
          • 15

          #5
          Originally posted by MadTiger
          Many bookies like to give sharps the privilege of first crack at the lines. They let the "sharpen" the line. It actually is to the book's benefit to let a FEW people tighten up their opening line for the public. This is like insurance, in that it costs them a bit (a higher-percentage bettor putting some $$$ in play on the line), but saves them big dollars if the general public went wild on a weak line.
          May sound elementary but, so then, are the "sharps" that much better bettors or do they just have the money to move the line as compared to the public?
          Comment
          • Terry
            SBR Rookie
            • 09-04-10
            • 2

            #6
            It's not that they are necessarily better bettors (although they probably are; they understand the line better and know if the line is "off." The early sharps do not necessarily take a side. They may just help sharpen the line by taking the "right" side. They can come back later in the week and take the other side for a middle. And, yes they have the money.
            Comment
            • Arilou
              SBR Sharp
              • 07-16-06
              • 475

              #7
              There are players who sit there hitting refresh hoping to get the first bet in on mistakes. Sometimes I am one of them. We can be very fast at doing this, as we have a lot of practice.
              Comment
              • Peregrine Stoop
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 10-23-09
                • 869

                #8
                Pinny's "hundred dollar geniuses" according to a newsletter they put out a few years back bet away at the lines early to get them to a better spot before the limits go up
                Comment
                • durito
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 07-03-06
                  • 13173

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop
                  Pinny's "hundred dollar geniuses" according to a newsletter they put out a few years back bet away at the lines early to get them to a better spot before the limits go up
                  Except that they open at 2-3k limits and they copy bookmaker's #'s. Lot's of bs in the pinny pulse eh justin?
                  Comment
                  • Flying Dutchman
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-17-09
                    • 2467

                    #10
                    So no sharp collusion on an early line to make the larger money? I think not.

                    Comment
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