Betting on a -200 Line / Consistent winners?

**LT Profits** · 09-04-10, 08:36 PM

Even if you assume a No Vig Line of -200 on each play, the odds of winning 10 in a row is only 1.7%.

**ufcmma36** · 09-07-10, 10:16 AM

not necessarily, depending if you made those plays say 1 a day or every other day.. Very focused its quite easy

**That Foreign Guy** · 09-07-10, 10:41 AM

It doesn't matter when you make the plays if the Fair Line is -200 the chance of winning all 10 is still 1.7%

Now if by making one play a day you actually mean "find plays where the fair line is -250 or better" then it makes a difference but that's an entirely different discussion.

**PatrickBateman** · 09-08-10, 09:18 AM

Why not just try and win three and then restart? Better chance of hitting three in a row

**Chow** · 09-10-10, 11:33 AM

**HedgeHog** · 09-10-10, 11:43 AM

Hitting three in a row has less than a 30% chance.

**JayRow** · 09-10-10, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by That Foreign Guy

It doesn't matter when you make the plays if the Fair Line is -200 the chance of winning all 10 is still 1.7%

Now if by making one play a day you actually mean "find plays where the fair line is -250 or better" then it makes a difference but that's an entirely different discussion.

this is correct.

**Cheme82** · 09-10-10, 02:55 PM

Just to clarify in case anybody is wondering where LT and Foreign guy got the 1.7%.

If you assume a no Vig line of -200 (or a fair line of -200) then that means the favorite will lose 1 out of 3 games. They win 2 games and make you 2 units but then they drop one at -200 and give the 2 units back so the EV is 0 if you bet them at those odds.

You want to bet them at those odds and hit 10 times in a row so you have to calculate the probability of that happening. Since the probability of a win is 2/3 then to find the probability of that happening 10 times in a row is (2/3)^10 = 0.01734 you multiply by 100 and get 1.734%.

HedgeHog just posted that even if you only try to hit 3 in a row then you will have (2/3)^3 = 0.2963 times 100 and you get 29.63% so not even 30%.

Now ufc said that if you stay focused it is quite easy to do. Foreign guy mentioned that being focused or taking a month between picks has nothing to do with the probability of hitting so many in a row. He also mentioned that if by "focused" and taking your time to make the plays you mean finding good value (like a -250 favorite being offered at -200 then that's a different issue). Even if you were able to find 10 plays where the line was off by 50 cents it is still very unlikely you will hit 10 in a row.

Let's calculate the chance to hit the 10 in a row at -200 but with teams you actually found to be -250 as their true no-vig line.

If a team's fair price is -250 it means they will win 5 out of 7 games. They make you 5 units but they also lose 2 games at -250 so the 5 units are given back and the EV = 0.

Now let's calculate to hit this play 10 times in a row: probability of hitting one game = 5/7, probability of 10 in a row = (5/7)^10 = 0.03457 times 100 = 3.457 %.

Even if you were getting "paid" at -200 odds on the -250 team, you still have a very small chance of hitting the 10th. play in a row without losing all your bankroll. The risk of having all your bankroll in play every game is just too big, that's why money management is so important.

In fact, to have a 50/50 chance of hitting 10 plays in a row you will have to be betting on an event that is 93.3% likely to happen. If something happens 93.3 out of 100 times then the probability of 10 in a row is (93.3/100)^10 = 0.4998 times 100 = 49.98 %. Even then you are a small underdog!

**HedgeHog** · 09-10-10, 03:54 PM

Excellent post Cheme82.

**LostBankroll** · 09-10-10, 05:26 PM

good shit here.

**AceKingHigh** · 09-10-10, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by cheme82

Just to clarify in case anybody is wondering where LT and Foreign guy got the 1.7%. If you assume a no Vig line of -200 (or a fair line of -200) then that means the favorite will lose 1 out of 3 games. They win 2 games and make you 2 units but then they drop one at -200 and give the 2 units back so the EV is 0 if you bet them at those odds. You want to bet them at those odds and hit 10 times in a row so you have to calculate the probability of that happening. Since the probability of a win is 2/3 then to find the probability of that happening 10 times in a row is (2/3)^10 = 0.01734 you multiply by 100 and get 1.734%. HedgeHog just posted that even if you only try to hit 3 in a row then you will have (2/3)^3 = 0.2963 times 100 and you get 29.63% so not even 30%. Now ufc said that if you stay focused it is quite easy to do. Foreign guy mentioned that being focused or taking a month between picks has nothing to do with the probability of hitting so many in a row. He also mentioned that if by "focused" and taking your time to make the plays you mean finding good value (like a -250 favorite being offered at -200 then that's a different issue). Even if you were able to find 10 plays where the line was off by 50 cents it is still very unlikely you will hit 10 in a row. Let's calculate the chance to hit the 10 in a row at -200 but with teams you actually found to be -250 as their true no-vig line. If a team's fair price is -250 it means they will win 5 out of 7 games. They make you 5 units but they also lose 2 games at -250 so the 5 units are given back and the EV = 0. Now let's calculate to hit this play 10 times in a row: probability of hitting one game = 5/7, probability of 10 in a row = (5/7)^10 = 0.03457 times 100 = 3.457 %. Even if you were getting "paid" at -200 odds on the -250 team, you still have a very small chance of hitting the 10th. play in a row without losing all your bankroll. The risk of having all your bankroll in play every game is just too big, that's why money management is so important. In fact, to have a 50/50 chance of hitting 10 plays in a row you will have to be betting on an event that is 93.3% likely to happen. If something happens 93.3 out of 100 times then the probability of 10 in a row is (93.3/100)^10 = 0.4998 times 100 = 49.98 %. Even then you are a small underdog!

Awesome post man! Thanks a lot for the share!! learned a lot =)

**Cheme82** · 09-10-10, 09:57 PM

No problem bro, just trying to share anything I know.

**agharah1** · 09-10-10, 11:01 PM

Upsets happen more often than you think. Just look at Maryland over Navy. On the other hand, look at Marshall/WVU tonight.

**Flight** · 09-14-10, 07:49 PM

This is why I only bet -1000 and above. I like long winning streaks.

< /sarcasm >

**filter15** · 09-14-10, 10:08 PM

that post should be nominated!

**over5.5** · 09-15-10, 01:26 AM

thanks for the info

**PatrickBateman** · 09-16-10, 01:16 PM

How has this been working out?

**craigpb** · 09-16-10, 02:34 PM

Probably not worth it.