Calculating FV ML based on historical evidence

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  • statnerds
    SBR MVP
    • 09-23-09
    • 4047

    #1
    Calculating FV ML based on historical evidence
    would 838 games be enough to start drawing conclusions?

    my data tells me a fair value money line on several NFL games in week one is +/- 210 and the lines are 10 to 35 cents away from that

    corrupt data?

    sample size too small?

    +EV wagers?
  • djiddish98
    SBR Sharp
    • 11-13-09
    • 345

    #2
    How are you arriving at your ml number?

    Ml is a derivative of the spread I believe, so any off ml should have an off spread as well
    Comment
    • bztips
      SBR Sharp
      • 06-03-10
      • 283

      #3
      Must be one hell of a model that allows you to accurately project money lines when you have no data yet on this season's teams.
      Comment
      • Justin7
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 07-31-06
        • 8577

        #4
        statnerds,

        ML is a function of both spread and total. If you don't use total, you'll misplay every dog ML in very low totaled games with big spreads.
        Comment
        • uva3021
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 03-01-07
          • 537

          #5
          pyth...i've said too much
          Comment
          • statnerds
            SBR MVP
            • 09-23-09
            • 4047

            #6
            Originally posted by Justin7
            statnerds,

            ML is a function of both spread and total. If you don't use total, you'll misplay every dog ML in very low totaled games with big spreads.

            damn i'm stupid sometimes

            okay most of the time

            thanks Justin
            Comment
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