New Think Tank Rules?

[HedgeHog]

Did I miss the memo on the new Think Tank rules? This week alone we've had a self-proclaimed "King" posting his -EV picks here, followed by a devil worshipper shilling for a "Psychic". It's actually quite humorous, but I find that the ground rules are blurred now. Systems, for example, are prohibited in the Think Tank. So I need to know what is or isn't allowed here currently. So consider the following:

1) I have a home dog system that has hit over 60% ATS the past 10 seasons. Allowed/Disallowed?

2) I line my bird cage with the sports section each day and bet the team name that he craps closest to. I think he's psychic because he is 202-163 the past year (55.3%). Allowed/Disallowed?

Answers to the above examples will help guide me in posting appropriate Think Tank material.

[Tomato]

Tomato wishes BIGDADDYQH could share his invaluable opinion in the think tank.

[Peeig]

Tomato wishes BIGDADDYQH could share his invaluable opinion in the think tank.

He provided a ton of entertainment

[Dark Horse]

Sink tank.

[CrimsonQueen]

Did I miss the memo on the new Think Tank rules? This week alone we've had a self-proclaimed "King" posting his -EV picks here, followed by a devil worshipper shilling for a "Psychic". It's actually quite humorous, but I find that the ground rules are blurred now. Systems, for example, are prohibited in the Think Tank. So I need to know what is or isn't allowed here currently. So consider the following:

1) I have a home dog system that has hit over 60% ATS the past 10 seasons. Allowed/Disallowed?

2) I line my bird cage with the sports section each day and bet the team name that he craps closest to. I think he's psychic because he is 202-163 the past year (55.3%). Allowed/Disallowed?

Answers to the above examples will help guide me in posting appropriate Think Tank material.

thank you for posting this, I was think the EXACT same thing... (except the system I use is my dog crapping on newspaper, opposed to your bird. My dog is really smart; circles the team name and puts the amount of units to bet on each game with her urine)

[Bluehorseshoe]

There definitely needs a sweeping in here.

[CrimsonQueen]

Perhaps someone is too busy with the release of their new book to do a sweeping?

[iifold]

[Flying Dutchman]

True story: my GF can do this psychic stuff.

One year, I asked her if she would pick my football selection in the office pool ($1000+ per week payout, lots of guys played at $20 per week, and the pool is ATS). She follows the NFL (sort of) but only knows a few college teams. Anyway, usually she refuses to gamble, but this one time she relented because I told here any money we made I would put 10% in her favorite charity. So, she marks all twenty games and as a result was perfect (10-0) on the pros, and totally imperfect on college (0-10).

After that result, I asked her what the heck was going on? She replies, "well, the first 10 or so teams were easy, and I had a really easy time picking a team I liked, but then the teams got weird, and I didn't recognize any of them."

I then say, "the second 10 teams were college teams."

"Oh, no wonder, they really confused me."

She would never do another. Oh well.

[Data]

True story: my GF can do this psychic stuff.

Don't get too hung up on this. Always stay focused. The real question is, can she cook?

[Peeig]

The questions or systems by the droolers sometimes make the sharps disclose thangz

[Cheese1976]

Handicapper Think Tank (49 Viewing)
Handicapping Theories, Systems, Tips, Tricks and Math

No systems allowed? Are you sure about that? I mean its right there in the subtitle!

[HedgeHog]

I for one would like to see the Think Tank opened up to systems. I'm not talking about team trends, where Team A has covered 4 out of the last 5 on MNF. Instead, a system of say playiing underdogs this week after losing outright as a huge favorite (-10 or more) the previous game may have merit and thus worthy of discussion. Unfortunately, such topics are currently taboo in the TT.

[Optional]

25 years ago a work colleague raved on about this quite simple system he had. I ignored him mostly, until he quit to punt full time. I can see it's flawed with what I know now, but think it could have potential with a little thought and development.

I would have posted about it but for the no systems thing.

And speaking of female relatives making picks for you. My mother swears by her on-track horse system; if you are down for the day at the last race, always take the highest weighted horse in the field that ran 3rd at it's last start. No idea if there is any logic behind it, but it is truly weird how often it comes off.

(maybe someone with a horse racing database could easily extract how often that happens generally?)

[bztips]

I for one would like to see the Think Tank opened up to systems. I'm not talking about team trends, where Team A has covered 4 out of the last 5 on MNF. Instead, a system of say playiing underdogs this week after losing outright as a huge favorite (-10 or more) the previous game may have merit and thus worthy of discussion. Unfortunately, such topics are currently taboo in the TT.

I don't see much difference between these 2 examples; they're both just trends that are likely the result of data mining (though with the first one you don't have to mine very much). If you look hard and long enough, you'll find literally hundreds of these types of trends; idiots like Marc Lawrence and many others spout off a bunch of these trends as justification for every pick they make.

Systems, trends, whatever you want to call them -- whose underlying assumption is that the market systematically under- or over-prices certain types of easily identifiable games -- are the bread and butter of everyone who DOESN'T read or understand the concepts in the think tank.

Keep 'em out!

[Justin7]

HH,

Feel free to discuss line value or perceived line misinformation due to a team getting blown out. As long as your approach also considers the current line (or what the line should otherwise be).

I hate seeing threads about systems where you bet "X", regardless of spread/price, any time "Y" occurs.

[Cheese1976]

I hate seeing threads about systems where you bet "X", regardless of spread/price, any time "Y" occurs.

Well, something like this is not truly a system...so how can real "quantified" systems be banned from an area of the forum that has the word system in its title? This is truly confusing to me

Handicapper Think Tank (49 Viewing)
Handicapping Theories, Systems, Tips, Tricks and Math

[That Foreign Guy]

So does that mean "Bet X, if Price between P and Q, any time Y occurs" is kosher?

[HedgeHog]

HH,

Feel free to discuss line value or perceived line misinformation due to a team getting blown out. As long as your approach also considers the current line (or what the line should otherwise be).

I hate seeing threads about systems where you bet "X", regardless of spread/price, any time "Y" occurs.

Fair enough. TY.

[shipsn2010]

wong teasers

Being new to the wong teasers, I have a question: it says to bet favorites that are -9 to -7 and bet dogs that are +1 t o +2.5, and road dog s +4.5 to +6 and home dogs +1 to +10 and dogs +1 to+ 3. there are a number of these plays this week just wondering how to detrmine what teams and how many for each teaser. .And is thi s just for preseason or the whole season and is ths just for pro or does this work for college and pro. Thanks in advance

[Cheese1976]

Being new to the wong teasers, I have a question: it says to bet favorites that are -9 to -7 and bet dogs that are +1 t o +2.5, and road dog s +4.5 to +6 and home dogs +1 to +10 and dogs +1 to+ 3. there are a number of these plays this week just wondering how to detrmine what teams and how many for each teaser. .And is thi s just for preseason or the whole season and is ths just for pro or does this work for college and pro. Thanks in advance

I think you're in the wrong thread

[20Four7]

Tomato wishes BIGDADDYQH could share his invaluable opinion in the think tank.

Please Mary mother of God.... NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111

[Peregrine Stoop]

yeah, I'm getting tired of the shortbus toutamenters. I understand you can learn from them. But, they have their place to do that.

[Cheese1976]

Either way, the thread title indicates that this is the appropriate arena to discuss "systems", if someone doesn't like it then they should just ignore any particular thread that upsets them and move on.

[skrtelfan]

Feel free to discuss line value or perceived line misinformation due to a team getting blown out. As long as your approach also considers the current line (or what the line should otherwise be).

I hate seeing threads about systems where you bet "X", regardless of spread/price, any time "Y" occurs.

Actually I have a few methods that essentially work like that but it considers betting the side/total/whatever ASAP before the line moves since the line almost always moves against these plays. Obviously I can't post a lot of these publicly but the most obvious example is betting an NFL side after they've locked up a seeding but the line hasn't adjusted. I guess there I'm technically considering "what the line should otherwise be" but I've been betting that stuff since before I had a clue about what NFL lines should be, I just knew the line would move. I've seen teams move from as far as -2.5 to +7 because the game became irrelevant.

[HedgeHog]

I do think logical systems have a place here and I'm glad Justin opened the door, if only a crack. But they don't replace sound handicapping. For example, take the situation I gave earlier: play dogs this week that lost outright as heavy favorite (-10 or more) in their most recent game. Now what if that team had their quarterback injured in that huge upset. This would be a significant factor in explaining the shocking loss and the fact that they are dog this week, especially if the qb is still out for it. So I understand the disdain of many for playing systems blindly, but they have their place when incorporated in the overall handicapping process.

[u21c3f6]

...I hate seeing threads about systems where you bet "X", regardless of spread/price, any time "Y" occurs.

The statement above is also too generic.

This is not a topic that can be discussed quickly. There are factors in any market (not just sports wagering) that overly influence the price of an "asset" such that it is priced either too low or too high. One does not have to "know" what the price should be to profit from these situations. "Knowing" that on average when certain factors are present that the price of the asset will be too high or too low regardless of what that price is, is what gives one an edge.

Joe.

[HedgeHog]

Well put, Joe.

[bztips]

The statement above is also too generic.

This is not a topic that can be discussed quickly. There are factors in any market (not just sports wagering) that overly influence the price of an "asset" such that it is priced either too low or too high. One does not have to "know" what the price should be to profit from these situations. "Knowing" that on average when certain factors are present that the price of the asset will be too high or too low regardless of what that price is, is what gives one an edge.

Joe.

Can you provide an example?

[Justin7]

The statement above is also too generic.

This is not a topic that can be discussed quickly. There are factors in any market (not just sports wagering) that overly influence the price of an "asset" such that it is priced either too low or too high. One does not have to "know" what the price should be to profit from these situations. "Knowing" that on average when certain factors are present that the price of the asset will be too high or too low regardless of what that price is, is what gives one an edge.

Joe.

In sports betting, if you have no clue what the right price is, following blind trends is a quick path to ruin.

I don't mind system discussion, but there are really two things I want to avoid:
1. Any type of progressive or chase system. I'm sick of trying to explain why these are bad.
2. Any system that does not consider the current spread. Whatever you have that works today, it will lose tomorrow if you don't evaluate what the fair price should be. This is as black and white as #1.

[u21c3f6]

In sports betting, if you have no clue what the right price is, following blind trends is a quick path to ruin.

I will agree with the following: In sports betting, if you have no clue what the right price is, following blind trends is a quick path to ruin.

I don't mind system discussion, but there are really two things I want to avoid:
1. Any type of progressive or chase system. I'm sick of trying to explain why these are bad.

Agreed.

2. Any system that does not consider the current spread. Whatever you have that works today, it will lose tomorrow if you don't evaluate what the fair price should be. This is as black and white as #1.

Not worded properly IMO and nowhere near black and white. Of course if you "know" the correct price, you are set. However, you don't need to "know" what the price should be or in fact even consider what the current spread is if you have some way of "knowing" when the pricing will be too high or too low (essentially underlay or overlay).

I assume that what you do is very successful. It is my opinion that because what you do is so successful, it must also blind you to other ways to attack the same problem. Nothing I do refutes your ability to do what you do. However, I have been doing what I do successfully for over three decades and I assure you that I have never created a model whereby I tried to assign odds/lines/prices to any of my selections whether it be horse/harness/dog racing, jai alai, sports wagering or stock options.

I will respond bztips request for an example. I will copy my Jai Alai example which I actually posted on this message board previously and relate it to this topic.

Joe.

[u21c3f6]

Can you provide an example?

This is probably not exactly what you were looking for, but to start, since I had already posted this previously to this message board I will reuse it. Here is a copy of my Jai Alai post:

Let's discuss. Unfortunately this will be long but I hope it will be worth it.

I was introduced to Jai Alai over 2 decades ago. I enjoyed watching the game and since I also like to "gamble", I tried to find a way to make a profit betting on Jai Alai. There are singles and doubles games and I started by keeping additional stats that were not readily available in the program. There were stats of how often a player finished first, second or third in the program but the program did not break that down by post position or whether it was in a singles or a doubles game. I also kept track of the results of doubles teams by post position in the hope of finding an edge. Long story short, I couldn't find an edge with my additional statistics. Even though the data that I had was not published, it was obvious that the betting crowd was sufficiently aware of the better players and doubles combinations to keep the returns on wagers in the negative expectation area.

After that did not work, I approached it differently. Instead of looking at the players, I looked at the return based on post position only. (For those unfamiliar with Jai Alai, the game is played in a certain order which allows certain post positions to win, place or show more often than others and also has an impact on quinella, exacta and trifecta combinations). When I looked at straight bets, quinellas and exactas, still no edge as again the betting public was sufficiently aware of the statistics to keep the returns in the negative expectation area. However, the trifecta was different.

There are 336 trifecta combinations in a Jai Alai game (8*7*6). When I compared the returns on the different combinations to the expected returns, a pattern emerged. There were 10 combinations that were consistently underbet by the public and I could see why. Because of the way the game is played, the public tended to make their trifecta wagers with numbers that did not touch which is usually a good strategy. But what I found out was that there were some combinations that while having touching numbers, won more frequently than the public's expectation and showed a positive return.

I spent many years taking thousands of dollars out of the Jai Alai trifecta pools. Unfortunately, the popularity of Jai Alai dwindled many years ago and the trifecta pools are anemic. They are so anemic that due to the pari-mutuel system (25% take), wagering on the "good" combinations reduces the return on the winners to break even or less. It was good while it lasted. Money can still be won in the twin-tri pools (which I have won) but frankly it is too much time and effort because you have to be physically there so I don't bother.

If I could have found an edge by "handicapping" the players, I would have bet it. But because I found an edge using "math", I bet that. It is this same methodolgy that I use to find edges in anything that I wager on and I wager on just about everything!!! (End)

I was going to try to relate this by anticipating questions but I will just wait to see if there are actually any questions. Joe.

[Data]

There are 336 trifecta combinations in a Jai Alai game (8*7*6). When I compared the returns on the different combinations to the expected returns, a pattern emerged. There were 10 combinations that were consistently underbet by the public and I could see why. Because of the way the game is played, the public tended to make their trifecta wagers with numbers that did not touch which is usually a good strategy. But what I found out was that there were some combinations that while having touching numbers, won more frequently than the public's expectation and showed a positive return.
....
Joe.

u21c3f6, if you were not signing as Joe I would think that your name was Steven.

[bztips]

This is probably not exactly what you were looking for, but to start, since I had already posted this previously to this message board I will reuse it. Here is a copy of my Jai Alai post:

Let's discuss. Unfortunately this will be long but I hope it will be worth it.

...
After that did not work, I approached it differently. Instead of looking at the players, I looked at the return based on post position only. (For those unfamiliar with Jai Alai, the game is played in a certain order which allows certain post positions to win, place or show more often than others and also has an impact on quinella, exacta and trifecta combinations). When I looked at straight bets, quinellas and exactas, still no edge as again the betting public was sufficiently aware of the statistics to keep the returns in the negative expectation area. However, the trifecta was different.

There are 336 trifecta combinations in a Jai Alai game (8*7*6). When I compared the returns on the different combinations to the expected returns, a pattern emerged. There were 10 combinations that were consistently underbet by the public and I could see why. Because of the way the game is played, the public tended to make their trifecta wagers with numbers that did not touch which is usually a good strategy. But what I found out was that there were some combinations that while having touching numbers, won more frequently than the public's expectation and showed a positive return.
...

I have no reason to doubt your story. But it's still just a trend that you happened upon (that apparently lasted an unusually long time). The fact that you could find profit in trifectas, but not straight bets, exactas or quinellas, is a dead giveaway. Why would the public be "sufficiently aware of the statistics to keep the returns in the negative expectation area" for all these other bets, but not for trifectas??

For a few years you could make money by blindly betting home dogs in the NFL -- that doesn't mean that there are any useful insights to be gained from it. (There's MONEY to be gained, perhaps!), but I hope this forum isn't reduced to that -- identifying systems that are the successful betting trends du jour.

[sharpcat]

Joe.

I think you are nitpicking what Justin is saying what he is referring to are your martingale systems and any other crazy systems that do not consider the price you are paying for your wager and will tell you to bet no matter what your win probability is or what the wager price is.

In the Jai Alai example you provided the ending where you suggest that your strategy lost its value because of the 25% takeout you are showing that consideration of the price of your wager was a very important part of what you were doing. When Justin refers to taking price into consideration he is referring to the fact that a bet at -110 needs to win 52.38% or better in order for one not to lose money.

I know that you are die hard on your view that hedging is the optimal strategy and I am sure that because every hedge attempt you set up has to involve you in some way considering the price of the wager and where it will move in the future that hedging would not be considered a system and is more than welcome in the think tank.