When a losing streak implies you're now -EV

[josie88]

At what point in a losing streak should you start to question your edge calculations?

How might one quantify the probability of handicapping failure vs inevitable but safely ignored losing streaks?

[durito]

How are you doing against the closing line?

[JayTrotter]

you gotta have faith.

If you think you can, or you think you can't you are probably right. irregardless of expected value.

[josie88]

It's just a theoretical question and I thought others might benefit from the post. I'm not on a losing streak. I'm only betting MLB totals so pretty much all -110. I stopped wagering sides last year because I never did figure out a way to measure an edge.

Today's methods may not work tomorrow. I'm just trying to be proactive.

Let me see if I can rephrase. Is it possible to fill in the blanks in this sentence or is it a non quantifiable question?

My handicapping is no longer working because over the last ____ wagers my loss is _____ and at half-kelly wagering my theoretical profit should have been _______. Using the formula ______ it has been proven that the delta loss vs theoretical profit has exceeded x dollars and at y confidence level I am now -EV.

[uva3021]

A losing streak is not an indicator of model viability. Just by sheer chance its inevitable that you will have to endure some form of losing streak.

[josie88]

I acknowledge that in the first post.

There's a poster here who's had 10 years of MLB profit and then had a losing season last year. Inevitable losing streak or he's a square bettor now?

A bloke hit 54% totals over 500 bets and now is 46% over his last 200. Inevitable losing streak or he's a square bettor now?

A bloke has an ROI of >5% over 3 years and now he's -2% over his last 5 months. Inevitable losing streak or he's a square bettor now?

[Tomato]

Tomato kills the number in CBB and barely made a profit.

He does question his strategy pertaining to that sport.

Tons of idiots were winning before the last few weeks on Syracuse, Kentucky, and other top teams.

[ForgetWallStreet]

Tomato kills the number in CBB and barely made a profit.

He does question his strategy pertaining to that sport.

Tons of idiots were winning before the last few weeks on Syracuse, Kentucky, and other top teams.

Tomato should not worry about results over small samples.

[Pokerjoe]

Math can not answer such a question. Those who understand mathematical calculation but not mathematical philosophy will insist that it can, but math can not answer such a question. The sportsbetting equivalent of a chartist will insist that it can. They're wrong.

If your results drop off, it could be mere variance, even if extreme.

If your results drop off, it could be that the market has changed on you.

If your results drop off, it could be that you were never more than lucky to begin with and the cards are just breaking even now.

Some people will take solace in BTCL. I'm not one of them. BTCL will reduce the noise in your data set, but BTCL does not inevitably mean +EV, imo. But lets not open that can of worms. If we do, I will be shouted down faster than a health care reformer at at Tea Party rally, and with the same amount of emotionalism, LOL. Plus I'm not actually anti-BTCL, I'm just not obsessed with it. I think it's more or less trivial, unless you're grinding, not handicapping, in which case I admit it's pretty much everything.

But OP's question was about handicapping, so ...

[josie88]

...I will be shouted down faster than a health care reformer at at Tea Party rally