Calculated a 3% ev difference between 2 books no vig line what should i do?

[Winner_13]

yea thats why i avoided betting the dogs. Sharpcat.


I bet it at -175
pinny had it -193

I bet it 110
pinny had it -125

closing #s on pinny

[sharpcat]

I am not sure what market you are betting in but if you are beating pinnacles no-vig line by this much without betting hours in advance before a major line move I would imagine that this is some type of proposition bet.

I (just my opinion) would suggest that in a very small market ,that does not get much attention and probably has very low limits, that pinnacles no-vig line should be ignored because it is not going to be near as accurate as a .07 cent line that has $50,000 max wagers. If you are attacking these small prop markets IMO you really need to come up with your own win probabilities pinnacle no-vig lines are useless if there is no market volume to correct an off number.

[Winner_13]

yes sharpie.

Its $7000 limit at pinny....bodogs is $500.

I thought prop bets would be great. its boxing/mma

[hutennis]

now there were 3 bets 20 cents different and i bet all 3 and they lost.....how the fuk do you guys win? is this the wrong strategy?

was bettng a fav thats no vig line was -155 at bodog...and -179 vig line at pinny. The other one was no vig line at bodog -105 and pinnys was -115.
Are these methods not correct?

I think you are result oriented and don't seem to have enough appreciation to the amount of variance involved in wagering money on uncertain outcomes (aka gambling).

You are upset about not winning even once out of 3, supposedly +EV bets.
3!!!!!! are you kidding me?

Lets assume that your -155 bet was what you think it was and your prob of winning in fact was around 60%. And you did it 3 times and never won. So what?

If you would go all-in pre flop with AT vs KQ you would have the same chances of winning. Do you have any idea how many times in a row could you lose that hand?
It would make your head spin.

I don't know if you ever played poker, but I can tell you one thing.
If you would go on poker forum and start complaining about losing 60/40 proposition 3 times in a row, you would be laughed at so hard it's not even funny.
Never mind the fact that you don't even know for sure if it was 60/40.
But even if it was, your expectations as far as short term results of betting being ahead that much are very, very naive, at best.

[Winner_13]

Thanks for the response,

I think i mentioned in a post above Im not mad that I lost all 3.

I was just wondering if I was on the right track.

[Winner_13]

bump