Why do people bet Futures?

**rise** · 07-23-10, 10:22 PM

sometimes only because its a bet from there heart and 2 some people hedge there bets if there team makes playoffs they bet other side to make a profit its like a free roll get a team at 30-1 in playoffs start to bet other side

**Justin7** · 07-23-10, 10:37 PM

Futures and props are much softer than game sides and totals. If you are doing this to make money, you should pay attention to futures, even it it ties your money up awhile.

**Jrod124** · 07-23-10, 10:44 PM

justin is 100% correct i bet futures all the time for hedging purposes as well

**PRC** · 07-23-10, 10:48 PM

hedging probably not the best idea for your long term EV

**HauntingTheHoly** · 07-23-10, 11:23 PM

Let's have some good exaples of hedging. It seems to me, the only time to hedge is the championship game, super bowl, whatever. It wouldn't be smart to hedge playoff games, would it?

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 07-23-10, 11:27 PM

I didnt read that whole first post, way too much to read, but I bet futures when I see value. My last future bet was Spain to win the world cup.

**thebayareabeast** · 07-23-10, 11:31 PM

They are either a homer or think that they know what team is going to pull it off

**scottie2005** · 07-23-10, 11:34 PM

Some books are slow to move numbers on futures and you can find good value. Found some good CFB season win totals yesterday for example that would also have been a 10-20 point scalp

**Jasonal_98** · 07-23-10, 11:35 PM

Futures are great as hedges. Next year's LA Lakers will be a prime example. They're still the class of the West, but the Heat are going to be the sexy futures team. If you tie up some money in a Lakers future, you're probably going to have a nice money-making opportunity next June.

**skrtelfan** · 07-23-10, 11:37 PM

As a simple rule of thumb most recreational bettors would be better off avoiding futures since the juice is high and you often get a better price betting individual games. Most futures I bet are of the season wins variety as opposed to odds on winning a championship or conference/league.

**NY Playa** · 07-23-10, 11:49 PM

Sometimes there is value....san diego padres were 200-1...not so bad now.

**thebayareabeast** · 07-24-10, 01:30 AM

Would still love for someone to explain to me how the Padres are 16 games over .500

That team is garbage

**arwar** · 07-24-10, 01:42 AM

i think SDG Padres were 200-1 at start of season

**Dark Horse** · 07-24-10, 02:26 AM

Futures basically allow you to trade teams like stocks throughout the season. Buy low, sell high. This trading potential would be far more attractive if exchanges offered the futures. In the past Tradesports used to offer this.

Futures can translate into very easy money. For instance, if you have a few teams that make the playoffs, you will typically make a profit. You need to shop around for best prices. For the recent World Cup I found value with Holland +1500 and Argentina +975 before the tournament. Once both reached the knockout stages it was easy to make a decent profit off those. I should also have grabbed Spain after they lost their first game, but missed that opportunity (had passed on Spain's pre-tournament prices).

Futures offer great trading opportunities, and an exchange like Matchbook could be far more involved in this field. The 'hedging' that is possible at books is much more expensive than trading would be.

**Monk** · 07-24-10, 03:14 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

For the recent World Cup I found value with Holland +1500 and Argentina +975 before the tournament. Once both reached the knockout stages it was easy to make a decent profit off those. I should also have grabbed Spain after they lost their first game, but missed that opportunity (had passed on Spain's pre-tournament prices).

Nice futures betting. Spain pre-tournament prices were too low for me as well. On the other hand Germany seemed too high and was also very nice investment.

**Johnny 55** · 07-24-10, 05:48 AM

People bet futures for the same reason people bet the WNBA, Arena Football, and smaller soccer leagues, you can make money in these markets.

**u21c3f6** · 07-24-10, 06:26 AM

When I wager in a futures market it is for the purpose of trying to create a profitable hedge. I do not intend to have let-it-ride wagers to the end.

The World Cup was interesting as it was a relatively short time period. Even then, when I made my futures wagers, I was almost completely hedged out by the time it was down to 8 teams. As far as wagering less money, it is quite the opposite. I wager a larger % of my bankroll because I know going in that I am going to hedge so the entire amount is never really at risk. In fact, when all was said and done, I had actually wagered twice my bankroll on the World Cup.

Joe.

**Blutarski** · 07-24-10, 06:39 AM

Great way to make money. I made a profit of $2600 on the Netherlands to win the World Cup. I just knew they would make the final 8. I put $500 on them to win the whole thing with odds of 13 to 1 before the tournament started. Started betting against them once they met Brazil. Every bet was made to make at least a profit of $500 along the way if the other team won. Once they got to final I placed a large wager on Spain. Came out $2600 after all was said and done. Would I be angry if the Netherlands won the whole thing, sacrificing large sums along the way, no. I could have won $6500 if I let it ride and they won, they didn't though. Better to have 40% of something than 100% of nothing.

**brooks85** · 07-24-10, 10:20 AM

i love betting futures and as it stands, im in the black doing it. So until I cant make profit on it, ill stop.

**TakeIt** · 07-24-10, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Futures can translate into very easy money. For instance, if you have a few teams that make the playoffs, you will typically make a profit. You need to shop around for best prices. For the recent World Cup I found value with Holland +1500 and Argentina +975 before the tournament. Once both reached the knockout stages it was easy to make a decent profit off those.

jus so i'm clear let me pose an example. you take holland at 15 to 1 for $100. in the knockout stages you start betting $100 on the opposing teams. correct so far?

if holland loses the first knockout game you are basically even. if they lose the second you are + $100.

is this pretty close? is $100 the amount you would hedge with, or is their a more efficient number?

**Dark Horse** · 07-24-10, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by TakeIt

jus so i'm clear let me pose an example. you take holland at 15 to 1 for $100. in the knockout stages you start betting $100 on the opposing teams. correct so far?

if holland loses the first knockout game you are basically even. if they lose the second you are + $100.

is this pretty close? is $100 the amount you would hedge with, or is their a more efficient number?

That's the general idea, but it's more flexible. Before the tournament I only had a rough outline of how to play it. It makes a big difference if the opponent is favorite or underdog. And other futures can play into the calculation. Basically, I kept an eye on all four brackets of the knockout stages, and would find value there (looking a game or two ahead, and including such futures as 'team to reach final four'). I did hedge Holland when they played Brazil, put a little on Uruguay in their next game (big dog), and put half of the future's remaining value on Spain in the final. I had laid out Holland's path to the final before the tournament and determined that only Brazil or Spain could beat them (a subjective observation, but one that proved accurate). From start to finish, for all WC futures, I ended up with about 15 pages of analysis. This included some unexpected plays that popped up as opportunities that fit the puzzle. So value shopping continued throughout the tournament. I hope this doesn't sound complex, because it wasn't. The key word would be flexibility.

Example of losing bet without paying for it: I had a pretournament middle on Brazil or Argentina to finish as best team from South-America. But a few games in, Uruguay's path suddenly opened up. Uruguay's price was still good enough to get out of the other bet. Futures often allow for that type of flexibility.

**Bluehorseshoe** · 09-22-10, 05:58 PM

I just checked out the futures for the NBA and I think the Clippers are a great team to bet at 95-1 to win it all. They hopefully get Blake Griffen for a whole year and having a new coach might be enough to at least get them an 8th spot. The rest of the West is getting old. Spurs, Mavs and Suns have to be on the decline. Throw in Carmelo getting traded out of the West and it's wide open.

You bet the Clips at 95-1, hope they make the playoffs and start hedging against them every series in the playoffs.

**agharah1** · 09-22-10, 07:08 PM

Bodog's got the Clips at 100-1.

**Bluehorseshoe** · 09-22-10, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by agharah1

Bodog's got the Clips at 100-1.

Thanks for the heads up.

One more thing, if Chris Paul gets traded to Orlando, that's another team out of the equation in the West.

**Peregrine Stoop** · 09-23-10, 01:52 AM

some of us are too lazy to put in the work and get bets in daily to compound growth on our bankroll
soft futures can be a lazy way to winning a little

**pedro803** · 09-23-10, 06:08 AM

Originally posted by Bluehorseshoe

One more thing, if Chris Paul gets traded to Orlando, that's another team out of the equation in the West.

I kinda don't think the Hornets are much of a factor in who wins the Western Conference with or without CP3

out

**statnerds** · 09-23-10, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by skrtelfan

As a simple rule of thumb most recreational bettors would be better off avoiding futures since the juice is high and you often get a better price betting individual games.

I will call this a valid point as so far as to say that any rec bettors considering futures need to put some homework in on it first.

Get the futures from several books and convert all the odds into expected winning percentages. None of them will equal 100%, thus the juice reference above.

However, if the book you use adds up to 150% or more, you are getting ripped off, and the juice is indeed to high. I did 5Dimes NFL futures before the season started it was ~107% I think.

Am I the only one that uses Futures Markets to judge a book? That and 10 cent or 20 cent MLB lines.

**Johnny 55** · 09-23-10, 03:45 PM

Yes, you are the only one who judged a book by 10 and 20 cent MLB lines, I like to give all my action to the 20 cent books, it is more of a challenge that way.

**statnerds** · 09-24-10, 03:43 PM

Reading Comprehension Definition:

The ability to provide accurate responses regarding questions concerning written language. Reading comprehension is dependent accurate reading ability, reasoning skills, attention and memory.

Correct. Most people use the final sentence of a post, paragraph, essay or argument to assert a premise. Well done.

**Glitch** · 09-24-10, 06:15 PM

this last tennis major had kolshreiber at around +85000 1 or 2 matches into the tournament.

**skrtelfan** · 09-24-10, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

I will call this a valid point as so far as to say that any rec bettors considering futures need to put some homework in on it first.

Get the futures from several books and convert all the odds into expected winning percentages. None of them will equal 100%, thus the juice reference above.

However, if the book you use adds up to 150% or more, you are getting ripped off, and the juice is indeed to high.

True, but I don't really care what the book's aggregate juice is if they happen to have the best price on a given side. Even the books with ripoff vig will sometimes have a stale line or will misprice a certain team. I think the key is to have as many outs as possible if you want to bet futures. That's good advice in general but the diminishing returns on additional books seems to happen a lot faster with standard bets than futures.

Am I the only one that uses Futures Markets to judge a book? That and 10 cent or 20 cent MLB lines.

Yes and no. Greek has 20c MLB lines but they're still one of the best and most reliable books out there.

**Glitch** · 09-24-10, 06:47 PM

that was 5dimes by the way

**byronbb** · 09-24-10, 08:02 PM

96% ROI on my MLB regular season wins bets this year. I have to say betting RSW is pretty fun way to gamble.