Can you make money betting winners 77% of the time?

[BetWeather]

Check out www.ThePredictionTracker.com a free web site that
tracks more than 50 different handicapper systems.

Some of these systems do better than 77% predicting NFL & NCAA winners and
even beat the spread more than 55% of the time.

They have history showing systems who are in the high 75% every year
for 10 years in a row.

Is it possible to make money betting 77% winners on the moneyline or is the
low moneyline payouts/Juice prohibitive ? (betting favorites...)

If so how much would you have to win on moneyline bets, on average to make money at a 77% win rate ?

[iifold]

just listen to the King..

[Sportslover]

Money risked/amount returned = break even percentage

So it depends on what line you are betting. For example, the break even percentage will be different for a -200 line than it would be for a -125 line.

The question you asked was too general. Determine what price you are playing at and then determine the break even percentage.

In my spreadsheet where I track my targets and results I break down my line into different catagories:

-140 to -136
-135 to -131
-130 to -126
-125 to -121
-120 to -116
-115 to -111
-110 to -106
-105 to -101

and so on for the +100 wagers etc.......

I find it easier to group them into groups of 5 rather than listing each line individually. Then I list my target win percentage, the break even percentage and my current win percentage for the week, month and year. I do this for each sport.

I think its best to keep track of all your plays and all your results so that you can see for yourself whether you are profitable.

[BetWeather]

Sport Lover - Good ideas.... especially your week,month and year idea.

I guess I see what you are saying....

So what if you win 75% of the time. (money line) You win so
little betting the favorites that even a 75% win rate won't break even?

The website I mentioned www.ThePredictionTracker.com says that
the LV Hilton also gets win/lose right 75% of the time.

I guess that it depends how much you beat the line for...
(and how bad it beats) you not just how often you win.

Last year 19 systems beat the LV Hilton on NCAA for the year.
The best around 55% of the time.

Or... is it possible that other bettors are driving the money line..

What if you stayed away from the worst 25% poor paying lines...
i.e. all of the -700 favorites... your win percentage would go down
but your actual ROI would be much better?

[do5000]

free website means somebody is paying for it... its possible the handicappers themselves are paying and therefore the results might not be 100% accurate

[BetWeather]

free website means somebody is paying for it... its possible the handicappers themselves are paying and therefore the results might not be 100% accurate

Did you go there and look ?

[welsknight]

I guess that it depends how much you beat the line for...
(and how bad it beats) you not just how often you win.

Which is ABSOLUTELY true. My current overall record is a perfect example:

37-25-1 (forget about the push.

That's a 59.67% wining percentage. What's my total moneywise?

-1.15 units

[BetWeather]

Which is ABSOLUTELY true. My current overall record is a perfect example:

37-25-1 (forget about the push.

That's a 59.67% wining percentage. What's my total moneywise?

-1.15 units

Wow... somebody who actually gets it !

But what fun it is to risk something, once in a while in life !

[u21c3f6]

... I guess that it depends how much you beat the line for...
(and how bad it beats) you not just how often you win. ...

I would say this differently (and it may be semantics to some) but it is not necessarily about beating "the line". It is about collecting more in total on your winning wagers than you lose on your losing wagers. Your wagers may or may not beat the line.

Just because your individual wager does not beat a particular line does not mean that your wager is not a +EV wager for your subset of wagers.

Joe.