Would you trust the Sharpness of this Prop?

**Justin7** · 06-16-10, 11:14 PM

Did you price these options?

Two things to do when you see a new prop:
1. Evaluate the overall house edge. The higher, the less likely you are to find value.
2. Price each option. I would do this at least a couple times for any book, just to get a feel for how sharp their prop pricing is. I have found plenty of value at Bodog, and am not discouraged if they have a house edge of 10%+ on their props.

**mathdotcom** · 06-21-10, 05:31 PM

Seems like a lot of effort for little reward. What stats would you use? Average homers given up by each pitcher? Average homers given up by each pitcher in the ballpark (might not have any data on this for some pitchers)? Of course you should account for the lineup, but do you just take each player's HR probability, their HR probability in the park, against the particular pitcher? My gut says pitcher-batter matchup data is pretty useless given the small samples.

Or you could use a count model given pitcher, HR probability of all batters, maybe a dummy for whether the pitcher is LH or RH, and a dummy for the park?

I am too lazy for props.

**durito** · 06-21-10, 11:53 PM

If your question is: would you trust that a bodog prop is priced correctly, the answer is NO.

**Rich Boy** · 06-22-10, 12:46 AM

If Pinny posted this prop I wouldnt question it but since its bodog I am a little concerned.

Ive been tracking the prop for a few days, it will take a few months before I get a good sample.

**Justin7** · 06-22-10, 10:41 AM

If I had to attack this one quickly, I would run a regression of HRs versus a game's total.

**rm18** · 06-22-10, 11:15 AM

that particular line was probably decent but for 97% of games you can't hang +600 on 0.

**Arilou** · 06-24-10, 07:44 AM

It is a good idea to price this sort of thing because if you find a weakness you can often exploit it for many bets before the book shuts you down; yes it's probably unbeatable given the 1.2227 market but you can and should give it a shot if you have the data you need. I would assume however that this does NOT follow from the total as HR rates depend on pitcher/park/hitter types beyond what those types do to the total.

**Thomas_Garber** · 06-25-10, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

I have found plenty of value at Bodog, and am not discouraged if they have a house edge of 10%+ on their props.

Bodog always have value bets for sharps. However, if your account is still in plus and growing after 1 month of betting with them they will politely show you the door and give you ridiculously low limit that is not even enough for a beer.

I opened an account with them during the college football season because they always had the best underdog lines on the underdogs that i was betting on. I opened the account with around $1800 and with the bonus I started at about $2000. I used their account only to bet the college football spreads, after four weeks I couldn't bet more than $10 on anything. All the bets that I made were between $200 and $750. At the end of 4th week, My account had grown to little over $5k. Keep in mind that the $2k that I had in bodog was just a portion of my bankroll.

After numerous emails they decided to close my account for stupid made up reasons. They did let me withdraw my deposit and winnings, so I wouldn't call them a scam book.

**rm18** · 06-25-10, 06:22 PM

bodog

**rm18** · 06-25-10, 06:22 PM

.....

**pilike** · 06-26-10, 03:38 AM

:S:S

**JC 420** · 07-05-10, 02:47 AM

Is that prop up 4 every game?