The past couple of days I've been interested in coming up with some "synthetic" positions with regards to betting on baseball - I don't have any background in financials, so this is mostly just running in circles.
I got around to thinking about taking both the -2.5 RL on team A and the 1.5 RL on Team B. This however leaves me wide open if Team A won by exactly 2, and since I can't find a bet of "Team A wins by exactly 2" there's no insurance to cover this.
Granted, I only have accounts at a handful of books (and I haven't looked that hard to find this option) - does anyone know if this type of bet exists? I thought I might have seen something along the lines of this at 5Dimes on a prop for an ESPN game, but I can't recall.
I guess my question is - why isn't this bet more prevalent? We've certainly got quite a bit of options for gambling on MLB (team totals, H+R+E, score first, etc). Why doesn't the "exact win amount" bet exist? If it's because books don't want to offer the insurance I was talking about above, why doesn't a market exist then.
Joe Schmoe can open a book that deals only with "wins exactly by" bets, based on historical odds, MLs, Totals, etc. He can then collect the juice and most likely prosper in the long haul.
I imagine this would be similar to pinnacle's situation with regards to arbs - buy a line simply because it fits with an arb at a slower moving book; you sell the insurance based on some edge at another book that could exist w/ insurance.
Or is this way off?
(Justin - I saw a post you had way back (http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...challenge.html) about about an arb challenge, and you mentioned a (hypothetical?) bet at MB for winning exactly by x to fit with the rules of the challenge. This started me on my thinking)
I got around to thinking about taking both the -2.5 RL on team A and the 1.5 RL on Team B. This however leaves me wide open if Team A won by exactly 2, and since I can't find a bet of "Team A wins by exactly 2" there's no insurance to cover this.
Granted, I only have accounts at a handful of books (and I haven't looked that hard to find this option) - does anyone know if this type of bet exists? I thought I might have seen something along the lines of this at 5Dimes on a prop for an ESPN game, but I can't recall.
I guess my question is - why isn't this bet more prevalent? We've certainly got quite a bit of options for gambling on MLB (team totals, H+R+E, score first, etc). Why doesn't the "exact win amount" bet exist? If it's because books don't want to offer the insurance I was talking about above, why doesn't a market exist then.
Joe Schmoe can open a book that deals only with "wins exactly by" bets, based on historical odds, MLs, Totals, etc. He can then collect the juice and most likely prosper in the long haul.
I imagine this would be similar to pinnacle's situation with regards to arbs - buy a line simply because it fits with an arb at a slower moving book; you sell the insurance based on some edge at another book that could exist w/ insurance.
Or is this way off?
(Justin - I saw a post you had way back (http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...challenge.html) about about an arb challenge, and you mentioned a (hypothetical?) bet at MB for winning exactly by x to fit with the rules of the challenge. This started me on my thinking)
