Here's The Situation...

**Maverick22** · 05-28-10, 01:30 AM

Originally posted by forsberg21

At one book I get a 50% rebate on losses. I have to run down my account to $0.00 to get the full 50% rebate on the total of my deposit.

At the other book, I get a 15% rebate on losses. I can claim the rebate at any time.

I get 10 cent run lines on MLB at both books.

What is the best way to maximize the return in this particular situation?

Dont lose... Then you have nothing to worry about

**forsberg21** · 05-28-10, 01:44 AM

Originally posted by Maverick22

Dont lose... Then you have nothing to worry about

Is there anyway to remove this brilliant response?

N - O - R - O - M

**mathdotcom** · 05-28-10, 08:50 AM

forsberg, ignoring limits for now, you're better off with the 50% rebate.

If you deposit $100, bet $100, you expect to lose it half the time. That's an expected profit of $25 with the 50% rebate.
Given this deposit and bet size, this clearly beats the 15% rebate ($7.5 expected profit).

If you win your first bet and rack it up to $200, then you can bet $200 and repeat. The 50% rebate wins again. If you go on a winning streak, you're unlikely to end up back below $100 to claim your initial rebate from either book. So the 50% rebate wins here in every way.

If you deposit $10,000 however and have limits of $1000/bet, you're unlikely to run your balance to 0. But if you do, the 50% rebate would be extremely profitable. On the other hand, with the 15% rebate, you can bet $1000 and hope it loses, then get $150 back immediately. In expected value terms, the 50% rebate is still better, but your probability of running your balance to 0 is pretty low and could take a lot of time, and if you're not getting perfect scalps at the other book, this is costing you time/money. And your money has an opportunity cost.

Now you're probably asking, why deposit $10,000 into a place with $1k limits? And that's a good question... you can increase the probability of running your balance to 0 by lowering your deposit with the 50% rebate. So I'd probably deposit 2-3 times their limit bet and bet the max each time. The extra 35% one book is offering you is too much to pass up just to increase your chances of a withdrawal. You'll w/d losses less often but when you do they will be a lot bigger.

**forsberg21** · 05-28-10, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

forsberg, ignoring limits for now, you're better off with the 50% rebate. If you deposit $100, bet $100, you expect to lose it half the time. That's an expected profit of $25 with the 50% rebate. Given this deposit and bet size, this clearly beats the 15% rebate ($7.5 expected profit). If you win your first bet and rack it up to $200, then you can bet $200 and repeat. The 50% rebate wins again. If you go on a winning streak, you're unlikely to end up back below $100 to claim your initial rebate from either book. So the 50% rebate wins here in every way. If you deposit $10,000 however and have limits of $1000/bet, you're unlikely to run your balance to 0. But if you do, the 50% rebate would be extremely profitable. On the other hand, with the 15% rebate, you can bet $1000 and hope it loses, then get $150 back immediately. In expected value terms, the 50% rebate is still better, but your probability of running your balance to 0 is pretty low and could take a lot of time, and if you're not getting perfect scalps at the other book, this is costing you time/money. And your money has an opportunity cost. Now you're probably asking, why deposit $10,000 into a place with $1k limits? And that's a good question... you can increase the probability of running your balance to 0 by lowering your deposit with the 50% rebate. So I'd probably deposit 2-3 times their limit bet and bet the max each time. The extra 35% one book is offering you is too much to pass up just to increase your chances of a withdrawal. You'll w/d losses less often but when you do they will be a lot bigger.

Now that's a good response, thanks Mathy...what I'm trying to do right now is lose at the 50% book while offsetting my wager at the 15% book, but I've actually added to my balance at the 50% book...but from what you're saying, I should keep my deposits close to the wager limit since having 10-15 "max wagers" in the account will make it difficult to get it down to $0. Makes a ton of sense.

**mathdotcom** · 05-28-10, 06:53 PM

You're probably paying some painful juice doing that. It's probably best to do them separately with a book like matchbook/pinnacle (if you have access to it). The way you're doing it now guarantees some profit, but at quite a cost.

Good luck sir

**mathdotcom** · 05-28-10, 07:30 PM

Peter,

May I ask what shop is offering you the 15% back (I assume the 50% is rebatewager)?

**forsberg21** · 05-29-10, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

Peter, May I ask what shop is offering you the 15% back (I assume the 50% is rebatewager)?

It is costing me, and I've run up my balance at the 50% book, which is RW, so I've netted a loss right now on this venture.

The other book is 5Dimes. I do have access to both Pinny and Matchbook too, one of the numerous benefits of being Canadian

**mathdotcom** · 05-31-10, 07:21 AM

thanks peter