Isn't taking 2:1 like stealing here?

**yisman** · 09-14-10, 10:09 PM

to make it easier to track you could've just entered an entry on espn or nflpicks.bman.com

I have entries ATS on both sites.

**clarkacal** · 09-14-10, 11:09 PM

Isn't taking 2:1 like stealing here?

I made a bet with a friend who used to book that I could beat the spread on 50% or more of every regular season game this upcoming nfl year. There is no vig, just pick winners, ties don't count. It seems to me this is a very good bet and he is on tilt...what do you think? With no vig it seems there is no mathematical disadvantage. The only argument i'm hearing seems to be psycholigical biases when picking being a common downfall. Is this legitimate? I plan on making completely random picks to offset this possibility. Isn't this like getting 2:1 on a coin flip?[/

**clarkacal** · 09-14-10, 11:11 PM

After nfl week 1 with this bet I am 6-9-1...

**beach nut** · 09-14-10, 11:29 PM

It's not a coin flip because you are picking every game.

**Peeig** · 09-14-10, 11:42 PM

OP, if you run bad on this bet, it will tilt me so bad...................I hate to see a sucker (your friend) get to keep their money

**clarkacal** · 09-14-10, 11:45 PM

What difference does that make?(To beach nut's comment)

**Sean81** · 09-15-10, 12:39 AM

Take the underdog in every game. Dogs have hit over 50% for all games since 1983.

**clarkacal** · 09-15-10, 12:48 AM

Agreed, I am taking mostly underdogs, if its a pick Im takin the home team, and a spread of 2.5 or less is the only time I take the fav. Of course this loses in the long run with the vig but I'm pretty sure it's way up since '83 without vig. Doesn't mean it will win this year but for 2:1 I'll take the chance...

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-15-10, 12:52 AM

Bet the ol' lady, house dog and truck on this, bro! Easy money!!

**Pokerjoe** · 09-15-10, 02:38 AM

What book did you choose for the lines? Like Durito said, you should have picked SIA, then every week picked the sides differing from Pinnacle.

But whatever book you chose, you should still do that. Keeps your emotions out of it and gives you a slight edge.

**yisman** · 09-15-10, 02:40 AM

I probably would've done BetUS or Bodog lines. Easy money. No handicapping involved.

**subs** · 09-22-10, 12:28 AM

i hope you and your friend understand each other properly?

does he really mean 2:1 + return of original stake or did he mean if you bet at even money $100 you get $200 back only or $300? if its 300 i feel sorry for your friend...

are you getting 2.0 or 3.0 euro odds?

**clarkacal** · 09-26-10, 10:29 PM

There is no return of original stake because no money has changed hands yet. If I win he pays me $1000, if he wins I pay him $500.

**clarkacal** · 09-26-10, 10:50 PM

Through Sunday #3 I'm 25-21-1

**clarkacal** · 11-01-10, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by clarkacal

[COLOR=#000000 !important]I made a bet with a friend who used to book that I could beat the spread on 50% or more of every regular season game this upcoming nfl year. If I win I get $1000, if he wins I pay $500. There is no vig, just pick winners, ties don't count. It seems to me this is a very good bet and he is on tilt...what do you think? With no vig it seems there is no mathematical disadvantage. The only argument i'm hearing seems to be psycholigical biases when picking being a common downfall. Is this legitimate? I plan on making completely random picks to offset this possibility. Isn't this like getting 2:1 on a coin flip?[/color]

Through Sunday 10/31 I am +19 and he is talking about a deal. What would be a good offer to take here? $800? $700? I'm in real good shape now but it's so volatile that 2 bad weeks I could be back close to even...or should I just hold out for the whole amount to teach him a lesson?

**FreeFall** · 11-01-10, 02:58 PM

if he will let you leave early and pay $800 I'd take it. The value of that money you have invested would be best spent elsewhere IMO. Not to mention he might start this deal up again later wondering what would've happened.

**Jeffrey2010** · 11-01-10, 04:15 PM

Have you considered hedging? neither have I actually. But, since you are up 19 games, you could bet $25 on every game against your pick at Matchbook or Pinny. If you lose more than 20 games for the rest of the season, you'd at least win $500 at the book to pay off this guy. If you lose between 1 and 18 games on your picks (but win $25 per at the book), you can add $25 for every game you "lose" to your $1000 winning. If you get up another 10 or so games, just stop hedging, you're so far up only an act of God could make you lose the bet, and you'd make at least $750. Guess some of it depends on just how good a "friend" this guy is.