Anyone know if there's a certain degree of rounding going on? I'm trying to match some calcs in excel to the calculator, and it's a little bit off.
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Here's a simple example to plug in - let me know if my math is off
MLB - Total of 8 (or whatever). Over of -101, Under of 100. Fill in 8% on the push prob for 8 (to make the math easy)
prob of -101 = .502488 = 101/(100+101)
prob of 100 = .5
No vig prob for over = .502488 / (.5 + .502488) = .501241
Subtact .04 based on 8% push = .501241 - .04 = .461241
When I highlight the Over Edge, it shows 46.11%.
If you then add the .08 to the .461241 representing a fall from 8 to 7.5, you should get .541241
Half Point calc shows over no-vig prob of .541177 on the fall.
I'm sure the real question is - where is my math wrong?Comment -
The calculator shows absolute probabilities. Your Pr(over) ≈ .501241 is a conditional probability (i.e., given no push).
Conditional overround is indeed ≈ 101 201 + 100 200 ≈ 100.2488% and hence absolute probability is given by:
Pr(over) = 101 201 * 1-8% 100.2488% ≈ 46.1141%
So Pr(over-½) ≈ 46.1141% + 8% ≈ 54.1141%
Factoring in vig of 1 - 1 overround ≈ 0.2481%, this gives us decimal odds on the over-½ ≈ 1-0.2481% 54.1141% ≈ or about -118.57 US.Comment -
A Ganch sighting!!
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Thanks for taking the time to answer this.Comment -
Ganch Lives!
I feel like savage on some island when one one the UFO gods lands and scoops up one of the native girls and then flies off in his saucer while putting on an amazing light show.Comment