I Bet I'll Have a Winning Day

**NY Playa** · 05-17-10, 05:58 PM

I think you can win 5/7 actually....good luck

**mathdotcom** · 05-17-10, 07:07 PM

If you can win 4/7 all the time then what's the problem?

**gryfyn1** · 05-17-10, 07:50 PM

just bet the same amount on all 7 .. if your right on 4 you win .. whats the issue?.

**Grind-It-Out** · 05-17-10, 09:14 PM

I understand that I will be profitable hitting 4/7 consistently. That's not my question though.

The difference is this.

If I bet $100 each on 7 games and win 4, then I have just won 4*$91 - $300 = $64
What I would like is to somehow create my own bet like:

Will I win 4 or more?
Yes +120
No -140

Then, I could bet all $700 on that one bet, and either win $840 or lose $700.

**NY Playa** · 05-18-10, 01:46 AM

Thats a lot of math...try it your way like Burger King.

**mathdotcom** · 05-18-10, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by Grind-It-Out

I understand that I will be profitable hitting 4/7 consistently. That's not my question though.

The difference is this.

If I bet $100 each on 7 games and win 4, then I have just won 4*$91 - $300 = $64
What I would like is to somehow create my own bet like:

Will I win 4 or more?
Yes +120
No -140

Then, I could bet all $700 on that one bet, and either win $840 or lose $700.

Simple - call me up and I will take all your bets (at the accurate odds).

**Shelton** · 05-18-10, 01:33 PM

good luck 4 team parlay

**Grind-It-Out** · 05-18-10, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by Shelton

good luck 4 team parlay

That goes back to the problem of giving too much value to 6 and 7 win days and not enough value to a 4 win day. I don't know which 4 teams are going to win, so I'd have to do a round robin consisting of 35 4-team parlays. I wouldn't even break even winning 4 out of 7.

**Peeig** · 05-18-10, 03:58 PM

Why is this in the think tank?

**Grind-It-Out** · 05-18-10, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by Peeig

Why is this in the think tank?

Where else would it go?

Although I haven't gotten any such answers, the idea was that this would require some math.

**mathdotcom** · 05-18-10, 06:50 PM

Nobody cares because you can't pick 4/7 anyways.

**Grind-It-Out** · 05-18-10, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

Nobody cares because you can't pick 4/7 anyways.

What's up your ass? Oh, nvm. Judging by your signature and your pic, I would guess another guy's dick.

**LT Profits** · 05-18-10, 06:58 PM

It all goes back to Kelly. If you have a ballpark figure of your edge and put it in the Kelly Calculator with full Kelly (Multiplier = 1), it will give the amount for each parlay as well as the straight amounts. As much as you try, you can't make your growth more optimal on your own.

**Grind-It-Out** · 05-18-10, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

It all goes back to Kelly. If you have a ballpark figure of your edge and put it in the Kelly Calculator with full Kelly (Multiplier = 1), it will give the amount for each parlay as well as the straight amounts. As much as you try, you can't make your growth more optimal on your own.

Woohoo, finally an intelligent answer

.

**DeluxeLiner** · 05-18-10, 07:02 PM

It kind of sounds like he wants to bet against his buddy that he will have a winning day.

**mathdotcom** · 05-18-10, 10:06 PM

If that's the case he should just take his buddy's bets and smile.

I'm simply speechless when people come in here asking questions like "I can pick coin flips right 60% of the time. How can I make $200/flip given I'm betting a dollar.....".

1] False assumption.
2] Silly question
3] Surely you should be happy hitting 4/7 every day...

**Grind-It-Out** · 05-18-10, 10:37 PM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

If that's the case he should just take his buddy's bets and smile.

I'm simply speechless when people come in here asking questions like "I can pick coin flips right 60% of the time. How can I make $200/flip given I'm betting a dollar.....".

1] False assumption.
2] Silly question
3] Surely you should be happy hitting 4/7 every day...

1) 57% and 60% are FAR different, but the fact that I said 4/7 doesn't mean that I think I will hit 57% long term. It was a reasonable fraction to use for the sake up of simplicity. Perhaps you would be more comfortable with 8/15. Either way, that's not the point. The point is, as stated in the title, that I am interested in betting that I will have a winning day.
2) You surely must believe that it is possible to pick higher than 52.4%, otherwise why would you be in a gambling forum? Given this assumption, why would you find it hard to believe that it is possible to have more winning days than losing days?
3) I'm asking how I can make $100/flip given I'm betting $100 dollars. I don't know where you came up with the idea that I'm trying to accomplish some ridiculous return.
4) Your useless answers are far more silly than this question. If you don't have the ability to intelligently answer a question, you are free to move on to the next thread.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 05-19-10, 07:06 AM

The reason why you won't find a way to accomplish this is because even a coinflipper (50% win rate) would hit at least 4 of 7 in exactly half of their trials in the long run. You're trying to find a way to return +120 for something that has a fair value of +100 (without vig). If you're looking to maximize your return, look to the Kelly Criterion as LT stated previously.

**Grind-It-Out** · 05-19-10, 09:28 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

The reason why you won't find a way to accomplish this is because even a coinflipper (50% win rate) would hit at least 4 of 7 in exactly half of their trials in the long run. You're trying to find a way to return +120 for something that has a fair value of +100 (without vig). If you're looking to maximize your return, look to the Kelly Criterion as LT stated previously.

In regards to the +120 thing, I was just throwing a number out there for an example. I realized that it was a poor number to use right after I wrote it. I should have used (Yes - 110), (No -110).

In regards to using Kelly, I don't doubt for a second that you are right. I'm just curious about this