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Can anyone eplain the relevance? of line moves
Using example from game in ncaaf this coming week
michigan @ minnesota
opens at MI-16.5 now at -20.5
-looking at the money 68% on MI
Question is what this would mean if the money was somewhat 50/50 split??
another example say NBA
line opens fav is -5 moves to -9 before gametime and the money is very close on both sides?? What does this mean?
never paid heed to this type wagering, but know some do
thanks
-veri-
Some line moves are real some are fake. Money % are manipulated.
Don’t use line moves as your only resource unless you have years and years of data.
No one is going to be able to teach you the amount of stuff you’re going to need to know on this forum.
The old explanation was line moves were adjusted to balance betting action. That’s garbage now
only time I use this factor is in ncaab ranked team games. so much biased $$ comes in, usually on the fave indicating a square play that you can find value on the dog, esp. the unranked hm dog.
this is a system I came across when the mall was alive and it usually has good returns.
for some reason I havent seen much value in the other majors, but it isnt on my radar and if I do see large line movement, usually stems back to a key player resting or injured.
It is interesting to watch and try to figure out what the mindset of the book is as they adjust either the points or they money as wagers come in tho.
Do you know how many years i have tried to explain to complete idiots that the line doesn't move to balance the action. You seen it with the KC game last night. 90 percent of the money was on KC and the line went the other way. That is called the book taking a position and they can do that when they have guys like Mahones bought and paid for and he does shit like he did last night.Originally Posted by goduke
This!!!!.......End all these garbage spotrsbetting myths..... Line moves don't mean nothing at all to the bettor. It is a manipulation tactic use by sportsbooks
Books move lines in an attempt to get half the bettors to bet one side and the other half to bet the other side. The Book takes the VIG. It really isn't anymore complicated than that.
Sportsbook owners aren't in the gambling business. Their customers are. Vegas doesn't exist because there are so many winners. Neither do sportsbooks.
Books pay a line manager good money to be on top of things. It could mean a loss or profit of several hundreds of thousands of dollars a day or even a game. A big book won't be affected much by a big loss day or week, because eventually they will get it all, and then some, back. A smaller book could be wiped out.
For years I would ask line managers who do we need today? The best reply is "Team A for little". The worst was "we are all Team X fans today!" Many times I would bet based on what the book needed and it worked out more times than not.
Last edited by DwightShrute; 10-02-23 at 01:07 PM.
Veri, it's a great question. I might post some opinion later.
I do think the Oddsmaker takes a different stance than BALANCE THE ACTION to ensure a 50/50 split and a tidy profit. I think the BEST oddsmaker knows the fair #. Set the # to induce action.
It's nice to be holding +110 on all tickets. Hard to go wrong.
I had an old friend of mine that last time I heard was still doing that (asking for that info).
You can incorporate line moves into your handicapping, but there is no way I would bet a game based on it alone. Nor, would I bet a game thinking this site or that site says all the money is on team A. Or, the public is on team B (Deep-throats not-so-new angle).
It matters if it moves off/past key lines especially nfl.
People are still trying to predict sports events?
That's what I gathered after reading this thread.
Line moves mean nothing. The books are going to decide on the last play who is going to cover the spread. Fav or dog. You see it every week in the NFL with your own eyes.
If line moves were solely based on evening out action/handle, it would be sooooo easy to beat. Like printing money.
What about the ~ 1 in 20 games that middle the line move. Then does it mean something? Flipping to win an extra 1 in 20 is the difference between winning 50% and winning 55% aka the difference between a big loser and a big winner.
To the young guys in here, or anyone with a lot of time dedication who love playing angles/theory's multiples at once. This could be worth the effort. My personal impression of this, well plain and simple I don't have one. Model shows value vs the line that's me. Unexpectedly some model plays get caught up in this movement.
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Can you ask this dim bulb why did the KC line move the complete opposite way of where the money was? His whole post shows why so many people think he is borderline retarded. To think there are still people left who believe this absolute garbage is incredible. Mahomes brings more money to these books than anyone and next week Josh Allen will shit the bed. Bank on it
That is not what I said.
Europeans cannot comprehend American entertainment.
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) October 2, 2023
Only Spain can perhaps appreciate this. https://t.co/haVq0c9AKa
. Think about this for a second. You ever see each book at once move a line? Is every single book in the nation being bet at the exact same time with the same team? Of course it isn’t so it can’t be evening out the action. Dwight is so clueless it hysterical
Why is it always the dumbest people who pretend they have someone on ignore but still communicate indirectly? As if that kind of virtue signaling will somehow convince others you aren't a lunatic. You are the kind of person who downs a bottle of whiskey before heading into the AA meeting and brags how he's been sober for a year now.
I have worked in the sportsbook industry for 20 years. I forgot more about the industry than you will ever know. What garbage did I post? You won't answer because you are an incel and a grifter.
Literally wrong place wrong time �� pic.twitter.com/1P7e0hcqpV
— Wild content (@NoCapFights) October 2, 2023
Wow are you dumb. LOL
I'm not sure you can validate any of those % money numbers. In the past I looked at SBR vs Vegas Insider, or something, and the numbers were completely different.
Also, if its net bets vs net money, its a different result.
If the action was truely 50/50, and the line moved only because of money, then it would be the same line.
It could have moved for anything. The only thing that works like this is chasing steam, or finding off market lines.
Following situations could be true or false, also with contamination of not knowing the truth behind:
1. Public moves lines, public bets randomly, giving no information. Bet information is useless. Opening line is not more efficient then closing. If you bet against, its the equivalent of saying "Don't pass is better, because the public is betting the pass line"
2. Sharps only move the lines. You could think its useful, but it isn't. The sharps bet it a certain price. It moved. There is no way to know if it continues to be a good deal
3. Lines move on random stuff, like injuries, rankings, AP polls, weather. Those items are then accounted for.
In the end, though it sounds difficult, the answer is to know what you want and the price you are willing to pay for it, and then try to get the best deal. Or chase steam, and hit off market lines.
Salud, Dwight. Hope all is well.
I will post my Basic Ideas on % Bet and How Lines move. These are MY personal ideas:
1) $$ moves Lines. The sharpest bettors have the most $$. There's a saying that "A Fool and his Money will soon be separated."
2) The Ticket % can be telling. It is an Indicator of which side MOST bettors are playing.
3) I do put some validity on Reverse Line Movement. If you see high Ticket % on the Fav...and the line is SHRINKING, take note. That tells me that the masses are betting the Fav, but the Oddsmaker is responding to the Sharp bettors taking the Dog.
4) One basic rule in Sports-betting. It's not Parimutuel, it's Fixed Odds betting. It's all about the # on YOUR ticket. Small-margin game, so it's Compound Interest applied to many SMALL edges. You want to be on the +side of the equation.
5) You want to generate a Portfolio with positive BTCL value. Assume that lines become more efficient from Open to Close. If the closing line is close to 50/50, you want to build a portfolio where you have a Net Edge against the Closing line.
Good Luck, all.
I have no problem with anything you say here. As far as what I said earlier, I was of course being very simplistic with my post. There are several factors in line movements but I didn't want to post an essay. The bottom line is that books try not to be in the gambling business. Sometimes they just are because you can't move the line enough. Teasers and other things come into play. Then its a little tense around the office. More times than not, it works out for the book as most of us are aware. How many times have we seen the spread or total land on right around the number? I have joking said they are aliens because of how many times the line is spot on.
I have sat with a few line managers over the years and I have seen them look at certain Vegas sportsbooks' lines to determine what line they will some out with and/or adjust throughout the week. They see big money coming in on Chicago -8 and they will change their odd to -8.5 or 9. It also depends on the book. A small book will be in big trouble when they have 3 or 4 NFL weeks where the books get killed. That is why we have seen so many threads over the years about a book not paying or paying slow. They have no money. They are praying the next week goes their way. Bigger books don't care so much because they can afford to weather the storm and we all know the books always win in the long run.
Its virtually impossible to have it 50/50. So many other factors come in to play. Teasers and prop bets. Depends of the type of book as well. Is the book mostly credit players with high limits? Is it a bonus book with lots of bonus hounds who bet tons of bets every day? We have all seen the SBR odds page and others which show spreads and totals for several books. Many books are offer different lines. Why do you suppose this happens? Much of it is to do with the action they are holding. in a perfect world, they want half to bet on one side and the other half of bettors to bet the other side. That is just they way it is.
Take into account bonuses and special promos on certain games books may have when it comes to adjusting their lines for certain games as well. Again, I was being simplistic earlier.
I can write a book about my 17+ plus years in the online sports betting and casino industry. Some really good books full of great people. I would talk to Hollywood celebrities and give them thousands of dollars in free money. I would take six figure bets and deposits even higher. We would have great office parties for prize fights, super bowl games and other event. We would have fully catered parties at the boss's house. They would hire chefs to cook breakfast and lunch for us on Sundays.
On the other side of the coin, there are some shady ones which I couldn't leave fast enough. They talk a good game but that's all. They would change the rules on their website after someone won big in order not too pay, they would hire people to make sure none of us ever socialized outside the office and they would stiff us on pay. Real dirt bags.
I have seen players win hundreds of thousands in a weekend to lose it all in a day. Many many times. The bigger books don't care when the book loses big on Sunday. They know they will come back next week and many will bet even bigger because they finally figured out sports betting. You can guess what usually happens then.
Last edited by DwightShrute; 10-03-23 at 10:34 AM.
Its a marathon, not a sprint. The books know it. All those things you mentioned are taken into account of course. I always found it funny when a bettor says a certain book doesn't have good lines. It depends on who you are betting doesn't it? It 9 out of 10 book have it -5 and the other book has it as -6, if you think the dog wins, then that is a good line. That is why most bettors have more than one book.
Dwight, that's great stuff. One game comes to mind when you mention small books at risk of going bust.
Go back to the first Brady Super Bowl. The Patriots are +14 vs the Rams. Moneyline = +500.
Here's the story I heard. Boston local bookies were sided to the moon with Patriot moneyline bets. Makes sense, that's the local team.
Bookies figure it's like Xmas. Write the +500 tickets. Expect the Big Fav to win outright, payday for the locals.
Well, they didn't manage their risk at all. Let's say a local writes $10,000 in action. Let's say it's an 80/20 Moneyline split toward the Patriots.
If Rams (and I'll give them -500 price) win:
*The $2000 pays out $400.
*The Patriot bets are profit. $8000.
...Net = +$7600.
What if the Patriots somehow win?
*The $2000 pays out nothing.
*Patriot bets of $8000 pay out $40,000!!
...Net = -$38,000.
Here's the story I heard. The Boston locals couldn't get the scratch to pay out 5/1. They tried to settle at 2/1...just so they could pay out.
LOL. Imagine if that's even close to true. Really no different than Wall Street:
*If we win, it's b/c we're brilliant.
*If we lose, we can write it off and get bailed out in the next tax bill.
There are a million stories over there years I am sure and many more to come.
I worked at a book once where I would spend a good chuck of my day making excuses as to why the money hasn't been paid to the player yet. Anywhere from she's in the basement looking into it to all sorts of stupid excuses I can't even remember them all anymore. That was my first experience with an online book back in 2003. Having nothing to comparing it to, and since it was rather early on in the offshore sports betting era, I assumed all these shop were dirt bags. I was having a beer at a pub close by the office when I was someone from the office and we drank a few together. Not long after, 2 big dudes come into the bar and physically removed her from the bar. The next day I was told no socializing with co workers! WTF? Needless to say, I didn't work there long.
Not long after, I helped out an affiliate manager at another book for a few days and met the bosses. They hired me and they were night and day compared to the other place. They paid their players fast. The players trusted them and that created loyalty. They hired good people and treated them well.
When Bush Jr. passed the law in 2006, the offshore industry never was the same. The good books grew but the profit margins shrunk big time. Neteller, fierpay and c redit crads were gone for the most part. Mnoeygran and Werstern Uonion were great but then they started to limit and blacklist players. Chargebacks and higher deposit/payout fees were a real thing. Then the shitty books started up by promising these huge bonuses hoping the players would keep losing. When the players won, then getting paid became a struggle.
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So many differing opinions on the industry.
This thread is a great read.
Dwight knows so much more than me LMFAO. Who Said Josh Allen would fake like he forgot how to play before the fact. This crook scored 48 points last week and is top three QB in the league and like Mahomes last week forgot how to play with all the money bet on him. They were telling the suckers that maybe Buff would be tire. Weird how the Jags weren’t the first week they played In London. Josh could have put up 80 against this shit team and their two shit corner backs. The funniest moment was the pass he had no rush and had a guy wide open and under threw him so he had to stop to make the catch because he would have easily score. Let me know if you guys wanna know who fakes like they don’t know how to Quarterback next week before the fact of course.
Lines move in 3 different ways today.
1. Faces - syndicate play.
2. Action - trying for 50/50.
3. Air - follow a book or DB. That's why the whole screen seems to move at once on DB.
For live betting I'd like to hear from Dwight since that's one I don't know for sure.
Last edited by raiders72001; 10-16-23 at 05:18 AM.
I have almost 2 decades of working at 5 different sportsbooks so I should know something about the industry. I only pointed out how books don't won't to be in the gambling business and try to get a 50/50 result as much as possible, whenever possible. Something that is true doesn't require your belief.
Your constant insults are boring and you really don't say much despite talking a lot.
That's pretty good.
Bookmaker made their own live betting office. They dedicated an entire floor to it. They had the fastest feeds. It was very impressive. Not sure that any other offshore book had their own in house live betting department.
Not sure how many books do their live betting on-site compared to books who outsource their live betting service. I suspect not many offshore books did or do.
I am sure you know that live betting varies from book to book when it comes to options and wager limits.
good stuff. Thanks
Dwight - share some more stories and tell us more about the books. Would like to know how big the offices were of some of the books, how many working there, etc.
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