I found a situation in live betting in which very often there is an arb oppurtunity between pinnacle and PaddyPower. How should I exploit it? Should I just go ahead and do the arb, in which case I will be putting a lot of money and probably will look suspicious and maybe get kicked out, or should i assume the pinnacle no vig line is the correct one and use the kelly criterion to just bet the paddypower line. In that case I am risking less money but there is no guranteed profit. I believe going with the kelly criterion will be more profitable long term. Opinions appreciated. Thank you.
-
-
If you arb Paddy, they will toss you fairly quickly. If the whole market agreed with Pinny and Paddy was off market, I would probably take a naked position at Paddy.Comment -
Thanks for the reply. I have a reason to believe that Paddy's line is off and Pinnacle's is closer to the "true probability". I have another question: how is Paddy going to know if I am arbing them? They only know that I placed a bet with them but don't know if I placed another bet elsewhere. Maybe if I am betting the max they will become suspicious but if I decide to go with a naked position I wouldn't be betting the max since my bankroll isn't that big. Should I expect to get kicked out in this case as well?Comment -
They are aware of the market prices, and where things end. If you keep making best on games at -110 that close at -130, it will not take long for them to figure it out. Expect to be tossed with your winnings, but possibly your bonuses voided.Comment -
They do analysis even on live betting?? I am talking about tennis where odds change after every point so it's hard for me to think that they follow the odds from all bookmakers.Comment -
I have been playing at Paddy for about a year now, and I like them. They do occasionally cut limits, but pay fast. If you are trying to arb Pinny I would be careful in that Paddy offers a three way line in the NBA.Comment -
noober don't listen to Justin. You have already noticed he can't read, so you should not pay much attention to his opinion.
1] you are arbing to clear a bonus
2] you are just arbing
Case 1:
If you don't beat the closing line to avoid 'detection' as Justin says, then the only way to clear this bonus is to bet into -110. That's a dumb play. You have to be beating a line at some point to make money.
Case 2:
If you don't arb here you make 0 money. If you do arb, you will make money until they toss you. So arb and if you get tossed you get tossed.
You're less likely to get tossed for hitting bad live numbers than tossed for beating the closing line (as Justin referred to) on pre-game lines.
-mathyComment -
im lost i dont get itComment -
Thanks for the reply, mathy.
I don't do bonus arbing so that's not my case.
My case is: I have found that under some circumstances, which happen about 1 in 10 tennis games, the software gives me a line which is definitely off and I can make money by doing arb with pinnacle (arbs vary from 1% to 8%). However, I remember ganchrow stating that whenever there is an arb opportunity you are better off identifying the line that has +EV and betting it with the kelly criterion rather than just doing the arb. Sometimes you will lose, but in the long run it will be more profitable. I couldn't find that thread of Ganchrow so I posted this question again to ensure the logic is correct. Also, in my case it will be better to just play naked at paddy since this will look less suspicious and paddy may not find out about their problem.Comment -
Paddys live betting is in absolute shambles. God knows what plank sets their live betting odds.Comment -
noober you fall into the 2nd category. A few things to add, though:
- they have no idea what you are betting at pinnacle, so that doesn't factor in
- again, if you don't arb out of fear then you make no money, and the worst that can happen if you get tossed is you make only a little money. So you might as well go for it
- Ganchrow is right that in terms of EV, you want to play it naked, but depending on your bet size you may not feel comfortable "letting it all hang out", so that in some sense is a matter of taste
Good luck.
-mathyComment -
I am also concerned about them finding about their bug in the software (maybe be not a bug, but all other bookies are handling that situation in a different way). If I do arbs, the probability of them finding out is much bigger. Why? Because if I have 1k at paddy and 1k at pinny i will be betting 1k at paddy each time, which will look suspicious. But if I play naked I will have 2k at paddy and given a 5% positive ev and 50% chance of winning Kelly tells me to bet $90. This probably won't attract much attention and should bring me more money long term.Comment -
If I am missing something in this scenario, I am seriously asking for someone to clarify it for me because based on many previous threads I just don't understand how some posters use and/or calculate +EV.
Without accounting for the the possibility of getting tossed, you are almost always better off arbing than letting one side ride. What is the Kelly % when there is a guaranteed profit? In the example above, the $90 wager has an EV of +$4.50. Unless you were giving up almost the entire 5% edge in the arb, the ability to essentially use your entire bankroll for the arb times the smaller edge will produce a much greater profit than $4.50.
What am I missing, if anything, that most seem to agree that it is better to only wager on the "supposed" +EV side?
Joe.Comment -
noober,
If there were no transaction cost, you would be correct. Always arb to flatten your growth. If you are hedging at Pinnacle, there is a fee to hedge. On a 10-cent line, you are paying about a 1.2% commission on your hedge bet.
Your limits at Paddy Power really matter. If your max bet at Paddy is very very small relative to your bankroll, you wouldn't bother hedging at Pinnacle. If on the other hand, their max bet is 10% of your bankroll and you have only a 5% edge, it would make sense to bet the max and hedge out.Comment -
Thanks. Makes sense.Comment -
I'd agree you're mising limits.
i am limited ad PP onto funny amounts like 16 EUR, sometimes 4.8 EUR or even 1.17 EUR, and i didnt even ever arb there.Comment -
Somebody explained to me this way and I think it makes sense: If you find arb opportunity with pinny and we assume pinny is so sharp that all their sides are +ev to them no matter which side you pick. So if you bet into pinny line, you lose ev value. Therefore naked bets at other books are more profitable long term.Comment -
wow - guess i just stumbled into some serious arbing dudes.
guys i've always been good with the maths and i have the time and the drive.... but i've only been looking into this 4 a short time.
1/ can u make decent money
2/ where should i be reading
3/ do u use a service and which 1 can u recommend
any help is most greatly appreciated
thanksComment
