1. 02-10-23 10:54 PM #36
    Nate rasta
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    Kvb is on a different level.hes the guru.bless up
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  2. 02-10-23 11:16 PM #37
    texhooper
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    Ah ok KVB, I was looking at your more recent exchange with d2.
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  3. 02-11-23 08:51 AM #38
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nate rasta View Post
    Kvb is on a different level.hes the guru.bless up
    his math is off in post #23 and then he repeats it

    no way in heck is -4 (-105) exactly half the expected loss of -3.5 (-110)... as d2bets points out, the -3.5 (-110) is better
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  4. 02-11-23 08:55 AM #39
    milwaukee mike
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    ok so there is a 5% push rate on the -4

    10 pushes out of 200... win 95 lose 95

    at -4 (-105)... that's a loss of 997.50 and wins of 950.00, so overall loss on $100 bets of 47.50

    at -3.5 (-110)... that's 95 losses of 1045.00 and 105 wins of 1050.00, so overall win of 5.00
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  5. 02-11-23 11:04 AM #40
    KVB
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    Yeah Mike, I assumed the sport of football and a push rate of 5% on the 4.

    The point was to show a formula for EV so the OP would be able to compare

    I'd say we beat that horse pretty good in this thread...lol.
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  6. 02-11-23 12:10 PM #41
    pavyracer
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    99% of gamblers at SBR can't do 3rd grade math.
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  7. 02-11-23 02:10 PM #42
    DownEastAaron
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Why all the discussion? Any basketball line I'll take -3.5-110 over -4-105. Doesn't matter what you capped the game at. This is not a difficult decision.
    I am interested in the underlying math. Just because somebody tells me to take -3.5/-110 vs -4/-105 doesn't convince me as to why. How many times as a parent have you told your children to do something "because I said so"? The child will do it blindly and not know any better as a result.
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  8. 02-11-23 02:30 PM #43
    semibluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by Covering the # View Post
    I rarely make any single bets to make less than the bet itself. Especially if it's a bet giving away points, whether it's -3 or -10. Your best long term gain and avoiding the vig is to find a correlating play within that game based on why you are on that side of the number. For example, if you like the under in the Super Bowl, you will expect and need turnovers. You can bet the under and a fumble lost at +160 as a parlay, instead of just betting the under at -110 or whatever. It's best to use your noggin once in awhile and eliminate unnecessary juice.
    20 years ago, maybe even 10 years ago most of my bets were in the -300 to -400 range and the +300 to +400 range, IE looking for -300 or +400 purely to exploit UK books unwillingness to move to US style odds. If the market was mostly +300 with some +350 i'd look for the odd book that still posted +400. I can see a difference between a 20% and a 25% chance, and the same with 75% and 80%. Like many I struggle to consistently cap accurately to a 1 or 1.5% range.
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  9. 02-11-23 08:18 PM #44
    newton0038
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    DO remember the bookies do not have a crystal ball. The line is an implied suggestion. Rely on the math especially live totals but never go against your gut. If conflicted...PASS
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  10. 02-12-23 04:07 PM #45
    Barrakuda
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    To answer the OP's question, a half point in basketball (except for 1 vs. 1.5) is worth about 9 cents for a side. And about 5 cents for a total.

    For other sports, it's best to do a trial at Unabated and plug in some line comparisons.
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