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Pregame vs. 2nd Half Lines
Hi,
Is an edge still an edge for say a college basketball pregame line versus a college basketball 2nd half line?
Furthermore, does having the same/similar mathematical edge over the market hold more weight or have more merit for a pregame college basketball game versus a 2nd half college basketball game?
Would love to hear everyone's thoughts on this.
Thanks,
TK
It's an interesting topic - say the line is 225 in the NBA (not necessarily in College basketball) and you got 240 at halftime due to high scoring, so do you have an edge because the original line was 225 and now it's 240?
I am not sure, sometimes it would go under 240 (and maybe even over 225) but many times this strategy fails ... would you martingale this strategy?
The 2nd half lines are going to be much softer. You have to define what pregame line. Do you mean the open the night before? or the line 5 minutes before game time?
Thanks for the reply. I meant like 5 minutes before a game starts. Sorry I should have been more specific there. So does that mean the higher the limits for a market, the more merit an edge will have when you're beating the line? Since the limits are lower for halftime lines and live lines for college basketball/NBA as opposed to a pregame line (shortly before the line closes) for college basketball/NBA, does having the same edge/closing line value for that pregame line hold more merit over a +EV mathematical edge that have in college basketball/NBA for a halftime line or live line? Do the limits matter and do pregame lines hold more weight when you have a +EV mathematical edge or as long as you have that edge, it shouldn't matter over the long-term as long as you are +EV? I'm not talking about some small niche market for limits, but for the four North American sports.Originally Posted by Waterstpub87
Thanks,
TK
This good question to think about, but it's difficult to answer.
I read your question as "since limits are larger pregame, the markets are more efficient, therefore a 2% edge is more concrete, rather than a 2% edge on a second half line where less money has been traded"
I would agree with this sentiment, but I wouldn't put much effort towards it. If you are beating the close, you will win long term. Your individual game edge will vary more.
Focus on making good bets and getting an edge. You should be good no matter which market.
Thank you so much for your input, it is greatly appreciated. I do alot of live-betting and 2nd half betting or live-betting at halftime so I was just curious to hear what others thought. At the end of the day(s) and long-term, if you're beating the closing line and getting +EV that's what it's all about no matter if it's pregame/1st half/2nd half or live betting.
2nd half only if your watching the games pal
From my experience all have to do is beat the line chief.
I agree with this statement.
Mine is a more theorical type idea. Imagine that there is a perfect line in the universe. The market get closer to that through price discovery (moving the line as bets are made). With a pregame line, you get close to that, as there is a long time of price discovery.
With 2nd half bets, less price discovery, less closer to the theoretical perfect line.
I don't think this would make much a difference, if your beating you'll win. Till I see evidence otherwise.
BTCL is a big time MYTH and BS.
How many of you have become Millionaire following it so far, I wanna know.
Live betting and 2nd Half betting is all COIN TOSS having 50-50 chances at all time and is a losing preposition in the long run.
Never Ever bet LIVE BETTING, it's for the suckers..
Have a system and believe in your numbers if you are sure and know your TRUE EDGE.
I will strengthen my point with an example..
Philippines Governor cup today .
Meralco Bolt is underdog with +3.5..
Favorite San Miguel Beerman -3.5 is a fake line and no matter how hard you wanna beat it at closure or otherwise during live bet or 2nd half, you just can't win.. period..
Betting Meralco Bolt +3.5..
Game could still lose due to bad variance but that's the right side you should be on..
I hope i have conveyed my message enough.
Second half lines tend to be much sharper than pregame. The books get half the game to adjust the line. Their analytics are much sharper than yours otherwise they would not be in business.
You are so wrong I'm embarrassed for you. If I showed you my accounts you'd realize you are wrong.
WHOSE 2nd half lines? You and others talk like there is one market like stock prices, or something. Ain't the case.
How about if one of my books has the total at 67 and the other has 69.5. Are they both 50/50?
Tell me you don't understand math without telling me you don't understand math.
Not trying to be a jerk, trying to convert you because you seem like a decent dude who's trying.
Do you know what the REAL NUMBER should be for this game based on your calculation and edge? If you know then you will judge books number ,be it 67 or 69.5 , based on your calculated number basis which you are placing your bet.
In your example, if your calculated number is 75 (let's say), 67 or 69.5 will be the right number to play Over, of course there are lots of other parameters you will check before you are satisfied to play that over bet.
Problem with most bettors worldwide is they are always REASONING OUT why a line is placed where its placed without calculating their own numbers and hence never win long term.
Based on your previous messages in my threads, I know I can never convince you on this BTCL and Live betting and I won't even try any further.. I am happy for you if you are winning and I appreciate all the motivation you have pumped into me earlier and even now with your last message... Cheers and GL for rest of the season Mate..
Meralco Bolt won 100-85.
All I know is 67 and 69.5 can't both be 50/50. One or both of them is +EV. If the calculated number if 75 then the calculations are off because the market is never that wrong. I don't care if it ends up being 75, that was not the number.
If your capping shows a number off by 7 or 8 points or whatever, then your capping is flawed.
Think about it, if you cap and then only bet games off by 7 or 8 points or whatever, then if you are correct in your capping you need to be winning > 65% long term. You're not, right? Then your capping is flawed. Period and math.
If you are saying numbers can never be off by 7-8 then I have no further comments on that. I wish you knew how far bookies go and fool around with bettors with their numbers.. wish you knew..
Why go very far, today's CBB Auburn game, my TRUE NUMBER is 145.6, Line is 138.5.. This is so NORMAL and happens all the time.
Play OVER and cash ( not always OVER automatically but based on some other factors too)..
Likewise, Ohio state Line is off by 5.5.. Play Under 133.5 in this one and cash.. Again nothing guaranteed..
Talking about winning >65%, I would rather not comment at this stage..
Ok you say their 'analytics are much sharper than yours' but what if you're not just beating "their" line but the whole markets line at halftime with the book that's number is off. Doesn't that count for anything?
Bingo. Those who are not in the trenches don't understand it.
I agree with 95% of what Gil Alexander on VSIN has to say. Don't listen to him everyday, but the main thing is I DISAGREE with him is when he says something like this.....and I'm paraphrasing:
"Closing line value and five dollars will get you a bagel and a cup of coffee."
So untrue.
IN LARGE VOLUME, beating the closing line will make you a +EV player.
It's easy to look at an individual play, or heck, even a season of 200 + NFL football games which FAIL to offer any CLV.
If you are betting into the "softest" number consistently vs. the number the sharp books put out, you will not lose sports gambling long term.
Look at slate of full slate of college basketball Saturdays, including 2nd halves (or in-game)....do you know how many of those games land right around the closing number? A handful. Maybe two handfuls. Betting into the soft number will turn a bad losing day into a medium losing day, a medium losing day into a small losing day, a small losing day into a small winning day, and a medium winning day into a great winning day.
Now repeat and rinse everyday, every week, every year.
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Coolguy, I thought you were better than this. Still hope you do well, but educate yourself. We're here for you, ask away.
I had 76ers -2.5. Closed at 4 or so. Was it a 50/50 at tipoff?
A bagel and a coup of coffee costs like 8 bucks these days. If you make dozens of bets a day, hundreds a week, a thousand a month and then thousand a year, all of those 8 bucks will add up.
All you really want is a 5% return, meaning for every 100 you wager you win 5. That's it. Now multiply that times as much as possible. 5 in 100 doesn't sound exciting, does it? But how about 1 million in 20 million? That does. Small Edge + Volume = Glory.
Sharp, as usual, from you. And you don't even 'cap!
Don't listen to this advice...it couldn't be more wrong.
Thanks everyone for the very informative contributions to my thread. I enjoyed reading everyone's replies. I always like to hear other peoples thoughts/opinions in this space.
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