[Bsims]

I have a question that I'm going to try to answer, but can't seem to get my ageing and deteriorating brain around how to answer. I am interested in betting on a team to win, but don't want to lose if they tie. The obvious wager is to take them on a draw no bet (DNB) wager. For instance today you can take Tottenham DNB vs D Zagreb at -257 (D Zagreb DNB is +197).

But there is another alternative. You can wager Tottenham on the 3-way wager at -112 and make a second wager on the draw +268. The second wager would be a smaller amount designed to cover th 3-way wager if a draw occurs. Both wagers would be winners if Tottenham wins, push if there is a draw, and lose if D Zagreb wins (+309 on 3-way).

Which would be the better wager with these specific odds? And is a generalized answer?

[semibluff]

A 3rd way would be to bet Spurs+½ on handicap. As ever, there won't be a 1-option-is-always-best solution to what you want. You'll need to cap the game 3-ways yourself to determine what is the best value. Generally the overall market's, (choice of multiple betting sites), 3-way line is posted at a lower overall book price than the 2-way handicap or DNB options. That sounds counter-intuitive but it is what it is. Examining the overall book price of the options available will most often highlight what is NOT value and what should be avoided.I have no history with Betnow so I don't recommend them but historically they work to the industry's lowest 3-way line percentage. Generally they're around 102% whilst others are around 105%. Good luck with your individual solution.

[jw]

Which would be the better wager with these specific odds? And is a generalized answer?

Had to convert to decimal for my head to work it out ...
So I think ....

-257 = 1.39 in decimal
So $100 @ 1.39 - returns 39 profit if you do the draw no bet.

For the two bets :

-112 = 1.89
268 = 3.68

$27.18 @ 3.68 returns the 100
$72.82 @ 1.89 = 37.63 profit


So draw no bet comes out slightly better.

[Bsims]

As I pursued this a bit farther, it becomes more of a complex question as semibluff pointed out. The best option depends on the probability of each of the 3 outcomes. In this example, I used average lines from many books. Using the average of the 3-way lines, we can compute the probability of the outcomes as Tottenham 51.67%, Draw 25.64%, and D Zagreb 22.68%. (I won't bother showing the math, it can all be done on a spreadsheet.)

With these probabilities, the expected return for Tottenham on a 3-way bet is $0.9437. A Tottenham DNB should return $0.9440. Semibluff pointed out a 3rd possible bet, Tottenham +0.5 on the Asian handicap. It's expected return is $0.9436. There ar actually two other options, the double chance (Tottenham or Draw) and allocating a portion of the bet to Tottenham and another portion to the draw outcome. I didn't look at the odds for these last 2 options. Of the first 3, the Draw No Bet was slightly better (as jw surmised). This of course depended on the specific probability of the 3 outcomes.

For each of the 3 optional wagers, I added a table in the spreadsheet varying the probabilities of a Tottenham win from 48-57% and a draw from 24-28%. The break even point for the 3-way was 54+ (regardless of the draw probabilities). The DNB and Asian handicap wager break evens were dependent on the draw probabilities. Comparing the 2-dimensional arrays for each of the 3 options led me to the conclusion that it this case, the DNB was the best overall choice.

My conclusion is that I need a program to download all the wager options from as many books as possible to identify the optimum wager. I'll add that to my project list. So many things to do and so little time left.

[danmam]

Semibluff, thanks a bunch for the helpful information! I always knew that which option was correct (for both 3-way ML bets, as well as Asian handicaps or totals) depended on your own handicapping of the game (and how probable you view each outcome), but good to know as a rule of thumb which options in general have a higher hold than others. It's become my viewpoint (and is almost certainly true) that any time you're buying points from the book, you're losing value, as the book I'm sure has detailed, updated valuations of push/win rates for each sport/league/market, and isn't going to price points at a loss to the book. And betting 3-way ML vs DNB vs double chance is, in my view, going from the default spread of -0.5, to PK, to +0.5 respectively. It makes intuitive sense that buying those half-points on the spread will in general come at a loss to the bettor. Good to hear that confirmed.