[Dr. Funke]

I've noticed in the streak for the cash game on ESPN many soccer bets involve a pick between a favored team and an underdog, but the underdog wins the bet if they win or draw. I was wondering how you would roughly calculate the percentages. For example, let's say it's TEAM A vs. TEAM B:

TEAM A money line = +115
TEAM B money line = +220
DRAW money line = +220

The bet is TEAM A WIN
-or-
TEAM B WIN or DRAW

I'm a novice and was wondering if there was an easy way to calculate such things, where you could include the vig, for instance.

If the lines are set fairly, in the above example after a cursory glance, +220 would basically have a 33% chance of winning (5 wins out of 15 would be break-even without the vig), and if I crudely add the two +220 bets it would seem to be a 66% chance of either a win or draw by TEAM B?

Thanks.

[Dr. Funke]

I think I answered my own question after reading the Introduction to Betting Lines and Percentages post, which was quite helpful.

TEAM A +115
TEAM B +220
DRAW +220

TEAM A zero-vig implied probability:
100/(100+115) = 46.51%

TEAM B zero-vig implied probability:
100/(100+220) = 31.25%

DRAW zero-vig implied probability:
100/(100+220) = 31.25%

Total of implied zero-vig probabilities:
46.51% + 31.25% + 31.25% = 109.01%

TEAM A implied line set probability:
46.51% / 109.01% = 42.67%

TEAM B implied line set probability:
31.25% / 109.01% = 28.67%

DRAW implied line set probability:
31.25% / 109.01% = 28.67%

TEAM A implied line set probability = 42.67%
TEAM B or DRAW implied line set probability = 28.67% + 28.67% = 57.34%