Formula for Season Wins - MLB

[SBR Drew]

Does anyone play MLB Season wins using a formula say within a Division? Idea is say AL West:

Houston Astros - MLB Regular Season Wins
Wed 10/28		26021 HOU regular season wins over 94½		-105
1:00PM		26022 HOU regular season wins under 94½		-115

Los Angeles Angels - MLB Regular Season Wins
Wed 10/28		26025 LAA regular season wins over 85½		-110
1:00PM		26026 LAA regular season wins under 85½		-110

Oakland Athletics - MLB Regular Season Wins
Wed 10/28		26039 OAK regular season wins over 89½		+100
1:00PM		26040 OAK regular season wins under 89½		-120

Seattle Mariners - MLB Regular Season Wins
Wed 10/28		26049 SEA regular season wins over 67½		-120
1:00PM		26050 SEA regular season wins under 67½		+100

Texas Rangers - MLB Regular Season Wins
Wed 10/28		26055 TEX regular season wins over 79½		-110
1:00PM		26056 TEX regular season wins under 79½		-110

Here we have the 5 teams in the Division. Out of the 162 games for the regular season, roughly a little less than half of the games are within your division. In general, you play 24 divisional series, 20 inter-divisional series, 8 inter-league series, Series could be 2, 3, or 4 games.

Knowing this is there a formula/strategy where you can wager on these 5 teams only Over or Under Season Wins and find an edge? I believe somewhere there could be an edge doing this.

[dlowilly]

I don't understand why you think there would be an edge here

Seems like since they do play eachother relatively more than non divisional opponents, and in all those games someone has to lose and someone has to win, betting all over or under would be decidedly -ev.

[Stallion]

Houston UNDER because they got caught cheating??

[Barrakuda]

No edge to be had. The same sims used by books and sharp bettors that came up with season win totals projections can project division win odds.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i read that book "trading bases" that wasn't that much about baseball betting. but definitely had some good stuff about baseball win totals

two steps,

1) good/bad play vs. runs

2) runs vs. wins.

and the 3rd non-quant step would be how the team will play differently than last year...... cole going to yanks, washington 3rd baseman to LAA etc.

anyway, #2 runs to wins. look up "pythagorean theorem predicting win rate"

last year the pecota had a crazy prediction for cubs........ i'm guessing that was based on aging starting pitchers.

Pythagorean winning percentage is a formula developed by renowned statistician Bill James. The concept strives to determine the number of games that a team *should* have won -- based its total number of runs scored versus its number of runs allowed -- in an effort to better forecast that team's future outlook.
The initial formula for pythagorean winning percentage was as follows: (runs scored ^ 2) / [(runs scored ^ 2) + (runs allowed ^ 2)] That formula proved more predictive than basic winning percentage when trying to predict a team's future performance, although in the years since pythagorean winning percentage was popularized, other analysts have attempted to find an even more accurate formula.
Baseball-Reference.com, for instance, uses 1.83 as its exponent of choice -- a modification that has successfully narrowed the formula's margin of error.

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-s...ing-percentage

[gojetsgomoxies]

basically on step 1/2, you are looking for teams whose runs scored/allowed were inconsistent with their performance stats batting/pitching. and then run differential vs. wins......... combo of 2 in same direction. or one of the two being very large.

i need to go further......... is the 1.83 the exponent for all 3 components (2 of the components are the same basic number)?

[gojetsgomoxies]

i believe those win totals aggregate to +9 wins over 50% win rate for those teams. of course, seattle brings that down from a much bigger number.

i am thinking if you add up all the nba win totals, it might not aggregate to 50% winning percent, as it should. not sure about baseball

[hehfest]

I can see betting these on the NFL season which is short, and even then you can get screwed by a week 1 injury to a major player. Think Kluber and Cleveland last year. If a team loses its top pitcher, or a guy like Trout for the whole season are they going to get the OVER? I like betting these if you are convinced, but such a long season in baseball ya know.

[SBR Drew]

Thanks for the feedback.. looking at an edge possible for upcoming MLB season with these win totals.

[TommieGunshot]

There are definitely advantages to be found betting season win totals. I find them the same way I do for any other bets. Study the market and shop around. Projecting a team runs scored and runs allowed can definitely give you a huge edge -- provided you can do it with more confidence than the books/market

[gojetsgomoxies]

nice thing about season totals is i bet there's a ton of fandom and/or square action on totals (i'd be thinking more NBA than baseball)

and in the NFL, there were team totals way different (higher? cleveland in particular?) than previous season wins. basketball would have that too with stars moving so much

cleveland in nfl was more close losses, one year maturation, myles garrett draft, obj pick up and of course it didn't work that well betting. i might have mixed up and combined 2 seasons of cleveland.

[gojetsgomoxies]

hypothetical comment,

if you knew for sure that detroit tigers are going to be 25 wins better than last season (they won 47 games... 25 win improvement is huge but 15 might be doable)..

anyway, wouldn't you be better to just bet games individually?...... turn over your money...... there might be issues of timing of improvement, but it shouldn't matter. you get big positive win surprise at some point in season.

[Bsims]

nice thing about season totals

The bad thing about season totals is that your money is tied up for a long period of time.

[SBR Drew]

Spring training coming up soon.. any opinions on Houston O/U?

[cobra_king]

Spring training coming up soon.. any opinions on Houston O/U?

As a baseball fan I want Houston to win about 4 games this year, but as a bettor, my projections have them going over their posted total of 94.5. with there being value in the over at anything up to -125.

[gojetsgomoxies]

will altuve be suspended at some point?..... commish taking mega-heat on this.

[cobra_king]

will altuve be suspended at some point?..... commish taking mega-heat on this.

I don't see it happening. I don't believe Manfred will go back on his agreement with the players for immunity. All bets are off however if new evidence surfaces (i.e. buzzers), but as it stands now, Alutve will be playing the season i believe.