1. #1
    SBR Drew
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    Definition Of A Correlated Parlay

    A correlated parlay consists of two or more individual wagers accumulated onto one bet where the odds of one of the wagers will increase if another wager ends up winning. An intuitive example of a correlated parlay is taking a team to cover the spread for the first half of a game and taking the same team to cover the spread for the entire game. You can see why these two individual wagers are correlated if a team covers the spread during the first half of a game, its more likely that the same team will also cover the spread for the entire game.

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  2. #2
    KVB
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    Books have been wising up to these parlays over the years and bettng software and interfaces automatically disallow many obvious correlated parlays.

    It's risk managment but one way to mitigate the risk for a book, other than not allowing the parlay altogether, is to allow the bet, but charge an appropriate amount of vig to offset the long term numbers.

    Heritage is a book that has a proposition builder where you can customize player props and even parlay them once you've done so.

    It sounds like a bettors dream until we see that the payouts are shortened, by an extreme.

    For example, I made a Lonzo Ball OVER assits with Zion Williamson OVER in points two pick parlay. Few books that offer these props would allow you to parlay them together, I believe. Each bet had it's own price with an inflated vig, of course, but then when combined for the parlay, instead of getting what would have been about a +1.13 payout, the parlay actually paid -130.

    Lonzo came through, but Zion was a couple of point shy.

    From a commission standpoint, the good news is that the bet didn't win, so I actually didn't have to pay the extreme vig and get paid shortened odds, I just lost my bet. Had I won, I would have been paid less then a normal parlay, thereby costing me vigorish.

    But I suppose anything back is better than nothing back.

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  3. #3
    Bsims
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Drew View Post
    An intuitive example of a correlated parlay is taking a team to cover the spread for the first half of a game and taking the same team to cover the spread for the entire game. You can see why these two individual wagers are correlated – if a team covers the spread during the first half of a game, it’s more likely that the same team will also cover the spread for the entire game.
    About a decade ago there was a book that actually offered this particular parlay. Really cleaned up in football until the book wised up.

  4. #4
    SBR Drew
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    MLB almost here ...great time for high scoring teams and overs...like NYY/Over xxx total. MLB has value because a high scoring team can go over the total on their own.

    Ex:
    NYY -200
    TOR 10.5


    Final NYY 11-2 ...

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  5. #5
    TommieGunshot
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    Only correlation is if they are also the road team. Otherwise they could be up 10-0 and not get to bat in the bottom of the ninth and the game goes under because of that. Only has to happen a few times per year to kill profits.
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  6. #6
    Metanoia2020
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    When two events are likely to happen together, in soccer when a fav wins, it's also very probable that the game will go over 2.5 goals. When there's a draw or a dog wins, it's more probable that the game goes under 2.5 goals. If you can parlay both events together you got yourself a correlated parlay.

  7. #7
    ekrazee33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bsims View Post
    About a decade ago there was a book that actually offered this particular parlay. Really cleaned up in football until the book wised up.
    Playerstime ?

  8. #8
    Metanoia2020
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    Quote Originally Posted by Metanoia2020 View Post
    When two events are likely to happen together, in soccer when a fav wins, it's also very probable that the game will go over 2.5 goals. When there's a draw or a dog wins, it's more probable that the game goes under 2.5 goals. If you can parlay both events together you got yourself a correlated parlay.
    At user trytrytry, i can't answer your pm until i have at least 40 posts, so i'll answer here, most euro bookies will allow you to parlay moneyline and totals.

  9. #9
    Bsims
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    Quote Originally Posted by ekrazee33 View Post
    Playerstime ?
    My recollection is that it was Carib. But they wised up after a few weeks and closed the loophole.

  10. #10
    trytrytry
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    Quote Originally Posted by Metanoia2020 View Post
    At user trytrytry, i can't answer your pm until i have at least 40 posts, so i'll answer here, most euro bookies will allow you to parlay moneyline and totals.
    i would not think a money line and a total would be anything problematic to offer, maybe you can find some as people said big favorite and over slight co relation? I dont know.
    did you say down below the tie DRAW and total also in euro books that seems risky for them.
    so many soccer end up 0-0 or 1-1 !
    not so many 2-2

  11. #11
    BeatTheJerk
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