1. #1
    Gaze73
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    Tracking results for each day separately

    Is there any logic to it? I made a summary of my bets since Nov 1 and noticed that 2/3rds of my profits gets lost on Saturdays, otherwise 5/7 days are in steady profit. It's gotten so bad that I already called it yesterday morning that it's going to be a terrible day and I couldn't be more right. I think I'm on to something. Eliminate your bad days and get rich!

  2. #2
    rustie
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    WTF , I think your"on" something too, "eliminate your bad days and get rich" , why didn't anyone else ever think of that !!!!!

  3. #3
    rustie
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    Sorry but your just making this too easy LOL

  4. #4
    InTheRed
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    Stop betting College Football

  5. #5
    semibluff
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    If you look at more events you'll spend less lime on each and you'll make more mistakes. Maybe you have other distractions on Saturdays. Maybe you're betting on certain sports that you're not so good at, and those sports take place on Saturdays. Just some possibilities. Further analysis would help.

  6. #6
    Gaze73
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    Since 12/5 until today I had only 3 losing days and guess what, 2 of them were saturdays. 6/8 saturdays since I'm tracking are in a loss now, 3 of which were heavy losses. My BR would be twice as big if I had skipped those saturdays.

    I'm sure it's not me because there isn't really room for error with my models. When the numbers line up I bet. There's only 2 explanations: 1. It's just bad variance clumped in one day or 2. My models don't work in the saturday's leagues. Every soccer league is different. I bet mostly on dogs but in some leagues most favs win. If the market was efficient then favs would win equally often in all leagues.

  7. #7
    CIS
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    Since 12/5 until today I had only 3 losing days and guess what, 2 of them were saturdays. 6/8 saturdays since I'm tracking are in a loss now, 3 of which were heavy losses. My BR would be twice as big if I had skipped those saturdays.

    I'm sure it's not me because there isn't really room for error with my models. When the numbers line up I bet. There's only 2 explanations: 1. It's just bad variance clumped in one day or 2. My models don't work in the saturday's leagues. Every soccer league is different. I bet mostly on dogs but in some leagues most favs win. If the market was efficient then favs would win equally often in all leagues.

    Unless you follow tipsters and only bet their selections then it is certainly because of you. Probably the case here is that your models/strategy does not work as well in saturdays as it works in other weekdays. I used to bet according to certain model myself few years ago and weekends had also the most mixed results. The results would be ofc much different if chasing the volume so in conclusion, weekends good for volume betting and not so good for picking the winners etc. Ofc i do not know your strategy so can be wrong.

  8. #8
    SportsbetTracker
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    One of the possibilities is that Saturday events would tend to bring more action overall, therefore lines tighten, creating lesser handicapping advantages. Check line movement histories for these games to determine this, particularly if you follow typical sharps for that venue.

    While ignoring Saturdays might be tempting, you can first just adjust your bet strengths. For instance, if you have a 10-point system like I do, and your average Saturday bet strength is 7, reduce it to 4 or even 3. This way it cuts your losses if you are still losing, while not totally taking you out of play so you can still analyze results.

    This of course is in addition to the other answers given here, which simplifies to finding all common denominators of your bets. However, I'm not so sure that you will find any significant causation to your correlated results, and I would probably submit you need a more historical dataset before actually determining that Saturdays are always going to create a loss. TBH, if such a determination could be made, I'd be thrilled beyond belief and become a millionaire within a couple of years just by mirroring my own bets with the opposite play.

  9. #9
    lleytian3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    Since 12/5 until today I had only 3 losing days and guess what, 2 of them were saturdays. 6/8 saturdays since I'm tracking are in a loss now, 3 of which were heavy losses. My BR would be twice as big if I had skipped those saturdays.

    I'm sure it's not me because there isn't really room for error with my models. When the numbers line up I bet. There's only 2 explanations: 1. It's just bad variance clumped in one day or 2. My models don't work in the saturday's leagues. Every soccer league is different. I bet mostly on dogs but in some leagues most favs win. If the market was efficient then favs would win equally often in all leagues.
    Before I get into your Saturday conspiracy theory, let me first clarify your last sentence that if that markets were efficient favs and dogs would win equally. So that is not correct, if the market were efficient you would have as much winning days as losing days therefore you wouldn't have any profit. The reason why you have so much winning days is because the market is not efficient and you are finding those edges to create value. Or you just could be on a great win streak.

    So on to your Saturday losing streak it is just basic math. think about it this way, if I flipped a coin 8 times and 6 times it turns out heads, would you bet the tails if I offered you +110? Think about your the explanation for your answer as opposed to just answering it. Hope this helps and good luck.

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