1. #1
    a4u2fear's Avatar SBR PRO
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    nfl team totals

    if an NFL teams wins total is over 8 -140 under 8 +125

    how could you assume what the odds would be for 7.5, or 8.5, or 7 or 9 etc?

  2. #2
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
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    In a way, there is no single answer, but I'll try to direct you to one.

    I think you will need push rates and what is relevant to obtain those rates would be debated even among the most professional of bettors.

    If you can find a book that offers pull down menus and odds at other season win Totals, then one of those pros did the work for you already.

    So the first question, can you find a book offering season win totals with pull down menus to buy games?

    But moving on from that, the next question would depend on the mathematical method you used to determine what a team's win Total should be.

    If you're using Poisson you are going to get errors too great to be considered accurate for NFL season win futures.

    For a binomial distribution problem, try changing your expected wins and recalculating. The probability of an individual win can be fudged or you can go game by game, exposing yourself to many unknowns.

    The good news is that many books will stop with a fudged Poisson result, giving you the chance to identify and exploit a bet.

    In the end, use binomial distribution to calculate the fair price and then you can change any probability, or expected result to get the further calculation.

    It really matters whether you chose to correctly use binomial distribution or the fudge factor you can't avoid in this situation with Poisson.

    Poisson tends to underestimate events here and will give you a push rate that I believe will be smaller than the binomial distribution will conclude...almost always.

    Good Luck

  3. #3
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
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    I may have over simplified the problem and I think you know about Poisson and binomial distribution use. I would think you would already have tried to just change a variable: expected game wins or the probability of it.

    I certainly think there could be room for more discussion on this topic and how we get our conclusions. This is good question and a much more difficult one considering the limited number of trials with only 16 NFL games.

  4. #4
    Life-Style Arbitrage
    Waterstpub87's Avatar SBR PRO
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    Problem with using standard distributions is that you don't have uniform probabilities, as KVB said with the poisson errors.

    If you have percentages with each game, you can easily create a distribution with a monte carlo (running a simulation)

    Set up an excel sheet the following way:

    In column A in rows 4-19, write each win probability for each of the 16 games
    In B 4-19, write = rand(), you can drag and it will populate
    In c4, write =IF(A4>B4,1,0), and drag 19
    in row d4, =SUM(C4:C19)

    In H1 Write total
    In I1 write whatever the offered team total is
    J1, Over, J2, Under
    In K1, =COUNTIF(K6:K10004,">8")/(COUNTIF(K6:K10004,">8")+(COUNTIF(K6:K10004,"<8")))
    In K2, =1-K1
    In L1, =IF(K1>0.5,K1/(1-K1)*-1,(1-K1)/(K1*1))
    In L2, =IF(K2>0.5,K2/(1-K2)*-1,(1-K2)/(K2*1))

    You've written about vba before, so I don't think you need instructions on how to put code into excel:

    Here is the code that will run 10,000 simulations (Takes my computer around a minute, you can add a zero to run 100,000 if you want more precise numbers:

    Sub runsim()

    Application.Calculation = xlCalculateManual

    Dim counter As Integer
    counter = 1
    Do While counter < 10000
    Cells(counter + 5, "K").Value = Range("D4").Value
    counter = counter + 1

    Application.Calculation = xlCalculationAutomatic
    End Sub

    You will then have a distribution, by changing the number next to total, you can measure the change on money line, shown in column L
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: KVB
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  5. #5

  6. #6
    leovegas's Avatar SBR PRO
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    thanks you evo
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  7. #7
    a4u2fear's Avatar SBR PRO
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    thanks everyone for the replies.....so let me see here, I like SBR's prop calculator excel tool

    If i'm analyzing Arizona. My book has them at 8.5 wins -110 (this was prior to the season)

    Using team total points that my book posts (they give a range of over say 300 points or under 350, also give an inbetween)

    Using those total season points, I came up with a line of over 10 wins +170, and under 8 wins of +175

    using the calculator:

    8.5 -110, equivalent is u8.4 o8.6 (this is the book line)

    my lines (I know this isn't perfect, as if I have ov 10 +170, un 10 would be like -200)
    10 +170, equiv to u10.5 o9.5 (choose this if i want to play over because this was calc using the over season points total)
    8 +175, equiv to u8.55 o7.5 (choose this if i want to play under bc this was calc using under season points total)

    so I have o9.5 versus 8.6
    or u8.55 versus 8.4

    I would play the over here

    Any thoughts?

  8. #8
    a4u2fear's Avatar SBR PRO
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    I think, this is pretty slick. This is only my second year using this. It went 10-4-1 last year. and I posted who I took this year, I did not have SBR calculator before I made either year's selections.

    Here is the link to this year's picks and has a link to last year's picks