Futures?

[byronbb]

Was looking at MLB futures season W totals. If I find numbers off at square book vs Pinny is it good to hit them? A season is a LONG time and maybe people are traded get injured etc so is there value here or is it a crap shoot? What's a good bet-size for a future?

[Justin7]

How much is it off?

[byronbb]

Pinny vs Square Line
Arizona Dbacks U 82.5 -140 vs U 82.5 +110
Cubs U 82 -113 vs U 82.5 +120
Seattle U 83.5 +100 vs U 83.5 +120
LAA U 82.5 +128 vs U 84.5 +102 ??

[ljump12]

Bet Cubs over 82 which should be around -107? and then bet Cubs Under 82.5 (+120) at square book... Max it out.

Unless I'm thinking of it wrong, that seems like easy guaranteed money.

[dwaechte]

First off, season win totals and all season long props are a fairly minor market with pretty low efficiency, even at Pinny. So you can't exactly take the Pinny line as the "fair" line as you would for a regular season game, even though it is Pinny. That being said, it's almost certainly still closer to the fair line than the smaller rec book, so your strategy still makes sense.

The bigger question is whether it's worth it to you to tie up your money for that long. What type of bettor are you? What type of returns could you achieve with that money by betting it throughout those 6 months? What type of premium do you want for that long term risk? These are the things that will decide whether it's advantageous for you or not.

If you're a rec bettor, taking advantage of these with significant amounts can be a fun way to root through the season.... instead of taking time to make bets every day and probably not finding much that's +EV, you can simply root for the outcomes of your season long prop while knowing you made a +EV investment.

[NY Playa]

i hate w/l futures, onlu play team futures at 40-1 or more. they make playoffs its great value

[byronbb]

If you're a rec bettor, taking advantage of these with significant amounts can be a fun way to root through the season.... instead of taking time to make bets every day and probably not finding much that's +EV, you can simply root for the outcomes of your season long prop while knowing you made a +EV investment.

I'm a rec bettor that plays +EV lines. I understand the concern with typing up money but I flat bet and make like maybe 10 bets a day max say on a big college FB weekend or something, so tying up money has never been a concern. I don't dabble in arbitrage yet as my roll is small and it seems the frictional costs of moving $$ around online might negate profitability.