MLB h2h reg season wins question

[Jaug]

OK so I was thinking about a h2h most regular season wins prop. The side i'm interested in is Tampa bay > LA angels. TB seems to have a OU on reg season wins of about 89.5, while LA angels has it around 84. So what price can I lay with tampa to get more reg season wins than LAA? (draw is push).

I was thinking around -150 theoretically?

[byronbb]

Well I plunked it into Poisson Calculator with 2 variables and got:
Odds of Percentage Money Line
A = B 2.7785% +3,499.03
A > B 64.7880% -183.99
A < B 32.4335% +208.32
A ≥ B 67.5665% -208.32
A ≤ B 35.2120% +183.99
Seems close. No idea if this is applicable however.

[Jaug]

Well I plunked it into Poisson Calculator with 2 variables and got:
Odds of Percentage Money Line
A = B 2.7785% +3,499.03
A > B 64.7880% -183.99
A < B 32.4335% +208.32
A ≥ B 67.5665% -208.32
A ≤ B 35.2120% +183.99
Seems close. No idea if this is applicable however.

What standard deviation did you use? I was thinking Gaussian distribution with a SD of 5 games. That would mean that 84% of seasons played the teams were held within 10 games of their OU lines. Seems reasonable?

[Jaug]

That gets me this value:

P(TB under 84 wins) = 13.5%

I guess you might even be able to lay -180 or -200 on TB > LAA reg season wins?

[jessetopolski]

prob

[MonkeyF0cker]

I was thinking Gaussian distribution with a SD of 5 games. Seems reasonable?

No. It seems completely arbitrary and it is.

[MonkeyF0cker]

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