Parlay betting strategies to lower variance?

[dontbethrifty]

Hey guys,

Here's the criteria:
-You MUST parlay two single bets to make a wager
-You have four different bets, lets say with 12%,10%,8% and 5% edges.

How would you pair these choices to best maximize your returns while keeping variance as low as possible? consider we would like to wager all 4 options in one way or another.

I've considered doing what I'll call 'spider bets' where you take the 4 different legs and make a total of 6 bets. Aka: you are betting every option with every option.
example: instead of making 2 capped bets with 12%/10% and 8%/5%, you bet the 12% option with 10%,8% and 5% at 1/3rd unit betting sizes.

other options would be simply doing 2 pairs of bets from the bet options.


thoughts? other options?

thanks

[semibluff]

I suspect the more you combine your bets the more variance you'll see in betting returns. The safest solution is probably to only make single bets and use Kelly Criterion.

...but as a former bookie i'm inclined to tell you to say the hell with it. Stick them in a Lucky 15 and have done with.

[semibluff]

Slightly more seriously if you have to bet doubles and upwards then try to minimise your risk by sticking to doubles rather than trebles and accumulators. The less likely bets are to win the more likely you are to have a long string of losing bets that seriously damages your bankroll.

[dontbethrifty]

I agree semibluff^
I always stick to 2 team parlays to lower variance. But please keep in mind, this is an instance where you HAVE to parlay but there is still plenty of value to be had.

[semibluff]

I agree semibluff^
I always stick to 2 team parlays to lower variance. But please keep in mind, this is an instance where you HAVE to parlay but there is still plenty of value to be had.

It sounds like the question is do you stick to 1 parley bet with your 2 best edge % options or do you split the money over all 6 2-option parlays. If you objective is to minimise risk i'd split the stakes over the 6 2-option parlays. I'd recommend working out the odds of each parlay winning along with each parlay's edge and using Kelly to determine the stakes.
Be careful with your bankroll management. The longer the odds of a bet winning the more chance you have of having a long string of losers, even if the projected profit rate is high.

[fate-choice]

How do you calculating edge? And what do you mean by that. 3 weeks in a row my 7-10 pick plays all off by one? Still trying to fix that.