line movement question

[70kgman]

Lets say I have a totals system/strategy/whatever, and the line ends up moving in the same direction I am taking roughly 75%-80% of the time, meaning I can get value 75%-80% of the time by wagering on the opening overnight line as soon as they are released.

Would you view the consistent direction of the line movement as proof that the system has substance? Or completely irreverent other than the extra point or two turning a loss (on closing line) into a win maybe once every 25 games or so?

[LT Profits]

It is a great sign that what you are doing is valid. It should be everyone's goal to beat the closing line consistently. If you really beat closers 75% of the time, I am jealous.

[roasthawg]

Obviously there's value there... you could scalp out and turn a profit if you wanted. If you've checked it vs the closing line then I'd assume you've checked it's results in terms of win/losses as well.

[70kgman]

Obviously there's value there... you could scalp out and turn a profit if you wanted. If you've checked it vs the closing line then I'd assume you've checked it's results in terms of win/losses as well.

I have been playing it all season. Currently it is hitting at 59.50% rate over a sample size of 148 games. Was consistently hitting right around the 63%-68% mark all season long but the percentage just recently took a big hit when it lost 8 of 9 games between March 5th and March 9th. Still working on filters for next season to make it stronger. I have played it for NBA only. It possibly could be used for NCAAB as well. There is some math involved and there are just way too many college games for me to be able to find time to do.

I just updated the line movement stats I have been keeping as well (haven't updated in 3 or 4 weeks), the 75%-80% is no longer accurate, the line movement trend has not been as strong as it was earlier in the season, but is still at about 70% movement in the same direction on the season, which is still good.

[roasthawg]

I have been playing it all season. Currently it is hitting at 59.50% rate over a sample size of 148 games. Was consistently hitting right around the 63%-68% mark all season long but the percentage just recently took a big hit when it lost 8 of 9 games between March 5th and March 9th. Still working on filters for next season to make it stronger. I have played it for NBA only. It possibly could be used for NCAAB as well. There is some math involved and there are just way too many college games for me to be able to find time to do.

I just updated the line movement stats I have been keeping as well (haven't updated in 3 or 4 weeks), the 75%-80% is no longer accurate, the line movement trend has not been as strong as it was earlier in the season, but is still at about 70% movement in the same direction on the season, which is still good.

Well so far so good... I'd keep playing it!

[jolmscheid]

70kgman...any way you could enlighten us on kind of what you do? I am very interested...thanks!

[SparJMU]

70kgman, I have some very solid ideas for anyone who can predict line movement in the 70% range. I made some very nice ROI in the NFL season with sides and line movements.

PM me if you are interested.