Reverse Line Movement

[SolidDala]

When a team has least 60% backed by public and line is still moved in that teams favor for at least 1 point differs from opening till closing line, this is a big warning sign to back the other team or no play right?

Have heard and read that its +54% in the long run, complete BS or something worth looking up in the past and future?

thespread.com has public numbers for upcoming games, but is there a site for games 1 year ago if I want to look more into this? Or should I skip the backtesting focusing on this a strong guideline when shopping around in the nick of time?

[suicidekings]

worth being aware of, as RLM typically means something is up. However, it's far from being a system in itself. The big thing is to read the lines near closing rather than earlier in the day. Lines can do some funny things but then close completely normally. Also, JM games will affect this as well.

[TW]

IMO thoose percentages are a bunch of BS, how are we to know they are accurate.

[runnershane14]

IMO thoose percentages are a bunch of BS, how are we to know they are accurate.

I agree there! I am convinced betting percentages are bogus every where.

[DeluxeLiner]

Even if you believe betting percentages are bogus. If the "scariest" line you have seen in a while is moving in a direction that makes it "more scary", it might be a good idea to bet it.

[DeluxeLiner]

For example (hypothetically) The Saints are playing at the Rams and the Rams opened as a 4 point dog and now they are a 3 point dog. At this point in time this would be RLM most likely if there aren't glaring injuries or something freakish going on. The gut and the "square" in you would want to hammer the Saints.

[Yi]

Interesting Idea

[BigdaddyQH]

Here is how easy it is to pad those numbers. I am a wiseguy and I want to control the numbers in a game between, say Chicago and Detroit. If I want Chicago, I send out a bunch of Mickey Mouse wagers on Detroit. Maybe 20 wagers at $10.00 per wager. I make one huge wager on Chicago. Since the numbers refer to the number of wagers ONLY made on a certain team, and not the amount being wagered, I have manipulated that stat.

One other thing to be wary of. There is no way to validate these numbers. Offshore books can post anything they like to try and equal their action out. Remember offshore books are small operations for the most part, and can not easily spread their action out amongst other books, like Vegas can.

RLM is something tolook at, but certainly is not a major factor in handicapping. If what you say is true, and this is +54%, that is hardly worth your time now, is it?

[donjuan]

Here is how easy it is to pad those numbers. I am a wiseguy and I want to control the numbers in a game between, say Chicago and Detroit. If I want Chicago, I send out a bunch of Mickey Mouse wagers on Detroit. Maybe 20 wagers at $10.00 per wager. I make one huge wager on Chicago. Since the numbers refer to the number of wagers ONLY made on a certain team, and not the amount being wagered, I have manipulated that stat.

This is comedy gold.

[SolidDala]

Can't back the number up since it is just something I picked up on the net. Like most things out there, there's no way to know for sure nor is there no way to check the funds on each side of spread, just the numbers of wager, witch your example showed Bigdaddy.

[BigdaddyQH]

This is comedy gold.

And I suppose that you know better? Let's hear it big mouth. You amateurs are all alike. You think you know it all, but in reality, you know nothing. O.K. Mr. Smartass, let's hear your version.

[donjuan]

And I suppose that you know better? Let's hear it big mouth. You amateurs are all alike. You think you know it all, but in reality, you know nothing. O.K. Mr. Smartass, let's hear your version.

You think 20 wagers would actually manipulate those stats in a meaningful way. Please keep posting; it's helping keep my hangover at bay.

[Cheese1976]

When I want to know what side and to what extent the public is betting I simply go to the Consensus page at covers.com. It provides an up to the minute tally and percentage of all picks in their contests (sides/totals) - the "All Players" category is a pretty decent barometer.

[skrtelfan]

And I suppose that you know better? Let's hear it big mouth. You amateurs are all alike. You think you know it all, but in reality, you know nothing. O.K. Mr. Smartass, let's hear your version.

Actually, I'd think the guy who thinks $1 million wagered by a "syndicate" in a football season is a big deal, and the guy who thinks Mirage and Caesar's Palace are among the "big boys" of Las Vegas sportsbooks is the amateur. Not to mention the person who has to assert in every single post "I'm a big professional syndicate player!"

If I had to guess, you're probably a cab driver who drives around a guy who bets somewhat large NFL wagers and in your mind, that makes you part of the "syndicate."

[Jaug]

Here is how easy it is to pad those numbers. I am a wiseguy and I want to control the numbers in a game between, say Chicago and Detroit. If I want Chicago, I send out a bunch of Mickey Mouse wagers on Detroit. Maybe 20 wagers at $10.00 per wager. I make one huge wager on Chicago. Since the numbers refer to the number of wagers ONLY made on a certain team, and not the amount being wagered, I have manipulated that stat.

One other thing to be wary of. There is no way to validate these numbers. Offshore books can post anything they like to try and equal their action out. Remember offshore books are small operations for the most part, and can not easily spread their action out amongst other books, like Vegas can.

RLM is something tolook at, but certainly is not a major factor in handicapping. If what you say is true, and this is +54%, that is hardly worth your time now, is it?

You just keep delivering, just when I think you hit the low there you go again

What a player.

[Jaug]

On a serious note, to all of you with conspiracy theories, sportsinsights pay the books for the info. If you ran a book, would you sell the number of bets on each side to an independent site? I would, quite cheap as well, it's free money for my company. Sometimes you need to think outside the box.

[Jaug]

RLM works well for college sports, but get absolutely killed in pro sports. This is tailing it blind. Last season in NBA I think RLM was at best 48% over the season probably even worse. Like every other system you need to cap the individual games and use the RLM as a info.

[gangeriver]

RLM works well for college sports, but get absolutely killed in pro sports. This is tailing it blind. Last season in NBA I think RLM was at best 48% over the season probably even worse. Like every other system you need to cap the individual games and use the RLM as a info.

I agree...it works well for college sports + NHL

meanwhile,
sportinsights.com gives RLM report from Matchbook,betclick,betjamaica,5dimes,bet phoenix,pinnacle...etc....
don't buy.their records are fake.

[70kgman]

I have read that in MLB, betting against teams with 60% or more of the public on them with reverse line movement of at least 10c produces over 100 units a year on average. It was just a random article I stumbled on in a google search so not sure how credible it is.

[Cheese1976]

I have read that in MLB, betting against teams with 60% or more of the public on them with reverse line movement of at least 10c produces over 100 units a year on average. It was just a random article I stumbled on in a google search so not sure how credible it is.

The biggest problem I have is finding an accurate public % - everyone seems to have thier own "go to site" but the numbers seem to vary so much

[aggieshawn]

Sometimes it is best to bookout the others opinions and just bet the facts you know

[Justin7]

Bigdaddy,

Please think carefully before posting anything else in the Think Tank. If you want to post random false crap, please keep it in the Player's Talk.

[smitch124]

I agree...it works well for college sports + NHL

meanwhile,
sportinsights.com gives RLM report from Matchbook,betclick,betjamaica,5dimes,bet phoenix,pinnacle...etc....
don't buy.their records are fake.

Yes they only report the records of plays triggered by the books that happen to have a winning record while ignoring the books with a losing record.

[dodger33]

using sbrodds and playing rlm has been fairly profitable for me over the last 2 months on nba and ncaab

[Cheese1976]

In my opinion sites like vagas insider that are littered with sportsbook ads to begin with, can't be trusted. They post public percentages in the 90's, IMPOSSIBLE with that large of a betting field.

[ForgetWallStreet]

In my opinion sites like vagas insider that are littered with sportsbook ads to begin with, can't be trusted. They post public percentages in the 90's, IMPOSSIBLE with that large of a betting field.

I'm not saying those numbers are right or wrong, but they supposedly come from sportsbook.com, and I would imagine that their clientele, at least on sides, is squarer than average.

[Cheese1976]

I'm not saying those numbers are right or wrong, but they supposedly come from sportsbook.com, and I would imagine that their clientele, at least on sides, is squarer than average.

I hear ya. I just think to post numbers in the 90's is ridiculous unless their idea of the public is a group of ten people who split 9 - 1 on a game. I've been tracking the all players % consensus section on covers all season and the highest number I've seen on a side or a total has been something in the 70's both NBA and NCAAB. I can probably post the spreadsheet if you want it let me know

[70kgman]

I use http://www.pregame.com/EN/main/sport...-spy-insights/ as my consensus source.

[skrtelfan]

I'm not saying those numbers are right or wrong, but they supposedly come from sportsbook.com, and I would imagine that their clientele, at least on sides, is squarer than average.

While I'm sure that's true about the squareness of their clientele, I wouldn't trust anything sportsbook.com told me.