Does knowing how a team is ATS matter?

**suicidekings** · 03-01-10, 02:40 AM

If you're talking about the ATS stats available everywhere listing results for teams dating back years, then you're correct. Many casual bettors make decisions based on these "trends" because they look very appealing. Statistics are only valuable if they're representative of the current team's performance.

As for knowing which teams are good ATS, this information is extremely valuable. If you think past game info is not valuable, then how do you think spreads and totals are set initially?

**Mr. Peepers** · 03-01-10, 02:58 AM

I think past info is very important like you said! I just question for example when you say for example Duke is 9-1 ATS in last 10 games....Wouldnt books take that into consideration knowing that people would look at that and figure Duke would cover regardless of the spread thus causing books to have duke give up more pts then what realistically they should be giving up...right?

**Masu485** · 03-01-10, 03:05 AM

i think good teams are often told by their coaches to win and cover the spread as a type of motivation.

but i also swear, this NBA season, just look at a team's L10 ATS Home/Away, and take the better record or the two teams. This is hitting at like 80% this season. I have no idea why.

**djiddish98** · 03-01-10, 08:12 AM

My opinion is - If the books are giving you this information, it's not going to help you in the long run.

**phans3** · 03-01-10, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by djiddish98

My opinion is - If the books are giving you this information, it's not going to help you in the long run.

yep, i agree

the only way ats stats could have an edge would be if a publics favorite is 9-1 ats
so most of the puplic money will be bet on this team and the money of the trendfollowers will be also bet on this team which might move the line to a point where fading this team might become ev+?

any thought on this approach?

**bookie** · 03-01-10, 01:26 PM

The way I look at it is this. A skewed recent ATS record tells me that the market has been overvaluing or undervaluing the team. There is no necessary conclusion from that fact. It could mean that the market hasn't recognized the team has integrated new players, or that the proverbial light bulb has gone on in a key players head--or that there's been addition by subtraction.

Or it could mean that the team is being valued on a collective mind set that can't believe what is happening.

Either way, the "trend" sets up a case to be investigated, and acted on according to one's handicapping judgment.

Or, of course, the trend could mean nothing--especially if it contains a bunch of short covers. So again, trends set up handicapping problems, they don't solve them.

**suicidekings** · 03-01-10, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by Mr. Peepers

I think past info is very important like you said! I just question for example when you say for example Duke is 9-1 ATS in last 10 games....Wouldnt books take that into consideration knowing that people would look at that and figure Duke would cover regardless of the spread thus causing books to have duke give up more pts then what realistically they should be giving up...right?

I think an ideal situation for the books for any team or sport is for that team to be as close to 50/50 ATS and O/U by the end of the season as possible. Some teams get away from them and overperform, giving them elevated ATS records. From their perspective, those games are over and done with. The thing that the books don't want to happen is for a team that has gone over in 8 of their last 10 games to continue going over consistently. The fact that most of these stats will eventually revert to the mean is the most predictable trend in sports.

I love the first 2-3 weeks of the NBA season because all the teams are extremely variable and the books can't keep up. Later in the season there's really only a few teams in transition at any one time, making it easier to keep the lines tight.

**bozeman** · 03-04-10, 05:09 AM

Well guys I totally agree that the bookies care about 50/50 money streams more than about who'll win. ATS record to me doesn't matter, as of my experience the best way to beat the spread is finding off-statistic factors that influence the outcome of the game itself. Players don't care about the lines, neither do coaches. But if there's a football game and the wind is over 20 m/s, or a key player got a micro-injury before the game, that is something that can hit any line, and the +10 underdog can win. I used to be a rated chess player, and when that seldom chess money line appears, the only thing that matters to me is the opening they will play. If it's 80% predictable, to outcome is 90% predictable, in some of the openings like Dutch defense Stone Wall, Caro-Cann, English, that's a draw.
So I think successful cappers concentrate on real factors, but not on stats mostly. The example to me was Dwayne Bryant in football this season, though he sucks in basketball deriving his plays mostly of stats which doesn't bring him over 50-60%.

**Wrecktangle** · 03-04-10, 09:39 AM

If you are a modeler, I see the ATS record as important. For example, in totals my sim tends to under evaluate running teams like PHO, and I'll see that in the ATS teams records so I have an adjustment for it, or just drop the game.

Might just be due to the fact that I'm still learning the totals game, tho.

**BigdaddyQH** · 03-04-10, 11:36 AM

ATS records, both against opponents and in a current season are just one part of the equation. Here is how wining streaks ATS broke down last year in the NFL. There were 33 streaks where a team either won or lost 3 games ATS, 12 streaks at 4 games, 9 streaks at 5 games, and 7 streaks at 6 or more games. Every team in the NFL had at least one 3 games streak ATS, be it a winning or losing streak. Cleveland had a 3 game losing streak, followed by a 3 game winning streak, followed by a 3 game losing streak, followed by a 7 game winning streak. The previous year, they had a 4 game winning streak and a 6 game losing streak. In 2007 they had a 3 game winning streak, and a 6 game winning streak. IN '06 it was a 3 game losing streak, and a 4 game losing streak.

Obviously Cleveland is a team that has a history of streaks. They get red hot or ice cold ATS for several games at a time. Those are numerous, and fall into the catagory of angles and trends. Example: Cleveland is 12-2 ATS after games against Cincinnati. There are hundreds of these angles and trends, and they often butt heads. Example: Chicago is 6-0 as a non-con favorite of 10 or less points. Chicago is 1-3 in their last 4 against Cincinnati. Chicago end up a 1 point favorite. Something has to give. In this case, it was Chicago.

So ATS results, both past and present certainly have a place in 'capping. The trick is to assign the proper weight and value to this type of information. Remember, when capping, you do not have to take into consideration what Joe Pub is going to think or do. You just have to come up with a line based upon the many factors involving the two teams in question. This is just a few of those many factors. LVSC has to consider what Joe Pub will do, and the difference between your line and theirs is going to determine which team to wager on.

**Wrecktangle** · 03-05-10, 04:48 AM

The big problem in NFL is that, as opposed to NBA for example, with such a short season and high league variability from season to season (2009 & 2005 come to mind), team ATS scores don't help me much in my techniques.