New college foots and hoops "system"

[thebestthereis]

heard this on a radio show recently, but didn't look back too far. said it was hitting over 60% last 100 times or so. not too bad and the rationale made total sense. nothing is perfect.

you bet against a ranked team (opposite team is unranked) in the 1st half of the game. now the ranked team needs to have won at least 3 in a row for it to be a play. it doesn't matter if they are on the road or at home.

the rationale is that the ranked team has gotten "fat n happy" while the unranked is very/more motivated and hungry to be playing the ranked team so they tend to come out flat. playing the 1st half is a bonus plus a lot of times the ranked (better) team turns it up in the 2nd half and ends up pulling away. how many times do they stick it up your butt in the end with meaningless free throws to cover?

last example was v.tech last night vs duke, and tonight you would play oklahoma over kansas (1st half)

good luck!!!!

[Peregrine Stoop]

datamining

[Justin7]

I've seen write-ups on "fat and happy". I'm pretty sure this has been a bust the last two years.

[SparJMU]

The rationale is there, but someone with a database would need to backtrack a few years to justify playing it.

[MrX]

You need to be careful with any system that calls for making a bet regardless of price and seems rational. This is doubly true if the system has been made public. You have no way to know if this line of reasoning is being accounted for by the line.

I'd have much more hope for a system that calls for making a bet regardless of price if, on the surface, that bet seemed irrational to the average person.

[thebestthereis]

the good thing about backtracking is that finding the 1st half line is easier cause you an estimate half (sometimes higher) the game line, wouldn't know where to get these lines from the past (1st half/2nd half). as far as blindly betting these games you are in a way but you are also betting with the line value in most cases. i am not a believer in handicapping a line or spread like a mad-man...the oddsmaker did that already. a team will cover if they are going to cover in most cases due to many factors besides a spread. anyway, taking the team in this system almost always has the value because they are not ranked and the public bets the ranked and favored team in most cases. the teams you are betting against will almost certainly be getting the square action. i willing to bet this system is profitable (long term) and i am not looking for a get rich quick scheme or 98% system win rate.

[chase1]

This is interesting. Does anyone have a good site that will show their rankings as well as the 1st half line together. I use scoresandodds for a lot of my research and they show archived 1st half lines but no rankings to go with it.

[sycoogtit]

"

[thebestthereis]

it was over 60% the last 94 from a radio show i listen too often, no bullshit i know that he is telling the truth. i think he said 57-37 or something like that.

[thebestthereis]

This is interesting. Does anyone have a good site that will show their rankings as well as the 1st half line together. I use scoresandodds for a lot of my research and they show archived 1st half lines but no rankings to go with it.

ESPN website has the rankings for each team during each week of the season, both hoops and foots. you just have to go back and forth from scoresandodds to check.

[chase1]

Yeah thats what I figured I would have to do. I was hoping there was an easier less time consuming way. Thanks. 60% is great I will run some numbers and see how it looks long term when I get the time.

[sycoogtit]

I came up with 68-80 (46%) since Dec 1 '09. February is 24-26 (48%) so far.

[thebestthereis]

really i didn't track, something not right

[sycoogtit]

Could be. I'll double check my code.

[thebestthereis]

I came up with 68-80 (46%) since Dec 1 '09. February is 24-26 (48%) so far.

when you backtracked you made sure the ranked team had won at least 3 straight before the game? it isn't just ranked vs unranked. last night gonzaga, wisconsin, and vanderbilt (bet against) were not plays for example but tulsa and south carolina (1-1) were.

[Dark Horse]

Do you have any idea how far the books are ahead of approaches like this?

[thebestthereis]

yes i do, they have every angle covered in every situation in every game every night every day of the year.

[sycoogtit]

when you backtracked you made sure the ranked team had won at least 3 straight before the game? it isn't just ranked vs unranked. last night gonzaga, wisconsin, and vanderbilt (bet against) were not plays for example but tulsa and south carolina (1-1) were.

Right. I went back and noticed I missed a couple games, but it didn't affect (effect?) change the winning percentage very much.