Betting System

[aajreyno]

Hey guys. This is my first post. I have been gambling for about 5 years and I have been losing money for about the same amount of time. I am not a compulsive gambler, but I have probably lost around $3000 in 5 years. While that is not too much money in terms of per year, it is $3000 less than I have now.

In those 5 years, I have accumulated numerous articles, betting theories, systems, anything I can get my hands on to help me become a better gambler. Each bankroll that has been lost just pissed me off that much more.

Well....getting to the point, I have been working on the development of a new betting system and would like your input on the results so far.

Since January 24th, 2010, I have followed almost every home college basketball team that was listed anywhere from pick' em to -4.5.

I thought to myself, gee, in a close game, the home team usually wins; I wonder what would happen if I bought 3 points for the home team, no matter the line or what time it posed. There are several more stipulations to my system, but its pretty simple for the most part.

As of February 19th, my system was 98-50-4. The same games ATS went 86-64-2.

Pretty good, huh? I am still not sold because I have only followed 152 games, but if this keeps up, I could be on to something.

Any thoughts? They tell me its not possible for there to be a system with a 65% success rate in college basketball. Jim Barnes told me himself. Does that mean away teams start winning more games? Because if they don't, the more I research I do towards my system, the higher the success rate will go.

I am getting ready to graduate from college. I am 26 years old, and have been to enough college basketball games to know that the atmosphere around the court MOST CERTAINLY plays a small part in the outcome of a basketball game. Using this to your advantage could be very profitable.

[warriorfan707]

Welcome to the forum, and best of luck. Don't let anyone tell you 65% is impossible. It certainly is possible. 98-50 is impressive, I hope it continues.

[IrishTim]

It all depends on how much you're paying for the 3 points. Laying -170 is one thing, laying -230 for the same 3 points is an entirely different game. Secondly, it's probably not the best idea to buy the points near pick. And you may want to consider a larger sample size before you are paying off two debts, your college tuition and local bookie.

Warriorfan, 65% is possible if you're laying -170. In fact the break-even point at -170 is 63%, so if you plan on making money then 65% is where you need to be. But 65% at -110 spreads/totals is not possible for any meaningful sample size.

[LT Profits]

98-50 is LOSING MONEY at most places when buyng 3 points! It is only profitable at those places that charge only -170.

[Johnny 55]

Buying the points is costing you massive money and your system will lead you nowhere, have a nice day.

[LT Profits]

Buying the points is costing you massive money and your system will lead you nowhere, have a nice day.

Not necessarily true at shops that charge -170 to buy 3 points in certain subsets.

[Jericholic]

As of February 19th, my system was 98-50-4. The same games ATS went 86-64-2.

Granted it's a small sample size, but 86-64-2 ATS without buying points is nothing to sneeze at.

[andywend]

Any system that recommends buying multiple points is WORTHLESS.

If the system can somehow show a profit buying points, then you'll make an even larger profit playing the selections WITHOUT buying the points.

[LT Profits]

Granted it's a small sample size, but 86-64-2 ATS without buying points is nothing to sneeze at.

That just means it was a good month for small home favorites, those things run in cycles.

[aajreyno]

Awesome feedback. I bet on Sportsbook.com and every bet I place is listed at -170. I do not flat bet these games, 65% at -170 isnt that great. I think the ATS was doing better profit-wise anyway.

What I do is set up a three round "chase" system, three rounds per day. On Saturday's, I pick a spread at noon, a spread at 4 and a spread at 8. I don't just pick out of a hat either or guess, the games used are ones I think I have some kind of "edge" During the week I only bet 1 or 2 games per day due to few games on board. When I started this system, I had a meaningless 115 dollars on my books (still learning).

At $113.95 using -170 lines 3 rounds, I was allowed to win $5.64

(Example with $114 bankroll)

$10.37 pays $6.10
$28.00 pays $16.47
$75.60 pays $44.47


At $119.59 using -170 lines 3 rounds, I was allowed to win $5.92

I am now at 223.15 using -170 lines 3 rounds and I am allowed to win $12.15

My basic theory is that I DO REALIZE that it is possible to lose 3 games in a row in college or professional ANYTHING, but on any given day I find it hard to believe that the home team will drop three games in a row against equal at best competition when I am using the filters that I am.

If these were just point spreads, I have heard of professionals losing 10, 15, even 20 straight games. They are not. -110 and -170 are light and dark, especially playing equal competition at home.


I look at it as flipping an unfair coin three times. I call heads each time. The coin is weighted in heads favor at about a 65/35 clip. How long is it going to take before tails comes up three times?

To the guy who mentioned sample size, if I had a bigger one with the same results, I would invest much more than a couple hundred bucks.

[aajreyno]

response

Any "devil's advocate" help on my system would be great.

Any pointers on locating my home picks?

[Pacifica]

No matter how you look at it there is still a small probabilty of losing three in a row, which will but you back to square one, in fact this system bears a striking resemblence to a well known one already sold on the net!!

Good luck anyway, and I wish you all the best.

[HedgeHog]

If you're hitting at a 65% clip by buying points, you have a 4.2875% chance of busting--about once in 22 attempts with your three bet chase method.

[mminkovski]

Buying 3 points at college games makes sense but don't chase so aggressively. Try something like Labby system or any "softer" money management.

[Justin7]

In conference play, 6 half-points are probably worth more than 60 cents.

That part is good. The rest - blindly playing a subset (which happened to do well) will probably not win going forward.

[thebestthereis]

i like your thinking but if you find the ATS record as good or even slightly less better %-wise in the long run you will be better off. very few books offer 3 points at -170, but every book in the world offers straight. utilizing 10 outs that you can either find a better line t or even reduced juice is the way to go....good luck!

[durito]

You only went from 57.33% to 66.22% by buying 3pts

You need to assume those spreads will hit 50% ATS going forward. If that's the case and those 3pts increase your win % the same you will soon be broke again.

[mintybetmachine]

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/streak+calculator.aspx

Enter 1000 in box 1
Enter 3 in box 2
Enter 35 in box 3
Click calculate
Result is the chances of you losing it all.

Enjoy.

[aajreyno]

Again, amazing information guys, glad I posted this thread.

I will be careful with the bets I put in from here on out.
Again, message me or email me at aajreyno@hotmail.com. As corny as this may sound, I'd like to build a network, one at a time

[SparJMU]

Honest Feedback:

This system will not work over time. If you are playing the games straight, whether buying the points or just betting the spread, you will go on hot and cold streaks and probably end up around even.

But really listen closely to the next sentence because it is ABSOLUTE FACT. If you keep up with that chase system you are going to lose all your money. I do not want you to lose all your money. Please do not go forward with a doubling down chase, you will go broke and there are no set of cuircumstances that will prove otherwise.

[aajreyno]

Again, amazing information guys, glad I posted this thread.

I will be careful with the bets I put in from here on out.
Again, message me or email me at aajreyno@hotmail.com. As corny as this may sound, I'd like to build a network, one at a time

[robert_wrath]

Statistically speaking, your record has proven a decent results, however tally up the total amount which your laying odds and cross reference it to the amount of money warned on games won. Unfortunately it adds up to a loss in the long run. Your win percentage is significantly higher than your loss record at what cost?

[JoeVig]

I'm with Durito here. If the ATS falls back to 50/50, you are probably losing money.

Best of luck to you, however.

[HedgeHog]

The chase system, aka martingale, is one of the worst money management systems. Your method may hit 96% per three-bet chase but even 96% FT shooters miss now again. When this does happen, and it will, it'll be devastating to your bankroll. Stick with mainly straight betting and use Kelly or % of bankroll for MM.

[thebestthereis]

i use some chase systems here and there and they have always worked for me. granted i have only used them for the past couple years or so, but at some point it may catch up to me. it may be in two and half weeks, 29 years, or after i die but it will happen just like every human will die. no matter how high you count, if you go in reverse you will always hit zero coming back no matter what. if you look up the word babble in the dictionary i am there