Moneyline System? Does this work?

[jolmscheid]

HI all. I am new to this forum and I really enjoy reading what everyone has to offer. I would really appreciate some help on this....

My thoughts are finding a couple plays (favorites) per day that I am pretty confident will win at the point spread (-10 or under) and then betting on that moneyline. Even though the line may be at -300 or over, I would play the moneyline and then snowball my profits for 2-3 games in a row and then start over again? I mean, if I am really confident that the Cavs. can cover at -7 for example, wouldn't it be smart to bet them on the moneyline just in case the Cavs. only win by like 4?

I figure that if I can find a couple strong plays that I am confident at the point spread each day, and then bet the moneyline so as to make the bet even more strong. I know that the odds are steep, but if I snowball the winnings into 2-3 plays in a row, wouldn't it be a profitable system?

Please help...Thanks!!!

[Z_Wipf]

The Rockets were -340 last night and lost. It wouldn't work in the long run because there are so many upsets and you would need to win 3-4 bets just to get even money back and one loss sets you back another 4 games to make up for it.

[JoeVig]

Why would you need to start over again? In case you....lose?

All those little wins are going to feel like chump change when you lose a -700 game. It happens.

[statnerds]

you also should ensure your getting value on your ML, not just betting it to avoid laying points. assign a value to your perceived edge or a probability of that team winning outright, and then use the SBR odds converter to change that implied probability into a fair value number on the ML and decide if the ML is fair, has value or has zero value for you.

a pro i speak with on occasion said as long as value is there, a ML can never be too high. GL

[Ruifgalmeida]

why bet a -300 line , you will better of playng the spread or parlay with another favorite.

[LT Profits]

There are times when the ML has more value, and times when the spread has more value. To determine which is which, use the converter here at SBR:

http://www.sbrforum.com//Betting+Tools/Spread+ML+Converter.aspx

If the value is equal on both, I personally prefer playing the spread and paying less juice, but I can't criticize anyone for taking the ML in the same situation. If one or the other has an edge according to the converter though, there should be no debate.

[jolmscheid]

How about finding a couple good ML values and parlaying a couple of them together? Say parlaying two heavy favorites that have good value and string a couple parlays together and then start a new string? I don't know...if one could win a 2-3 parlays in a row betting heavy favorites, can't profits be made? Thanks for all your help everyone.

[jolmscheid]

Example here guys...today Wisconsin is a -12 favorite over Northwestern...the ML is currently at -900 and the SBR converter says that a college basketball game with a spread of -12 would convert to well over -1000....so would Wisconsin be an example of a good ML play to maybe parlay with another?

[Power Play]

wisconsin would have to go win 9-0 or 18-1 this situation for you to win ONE unit at -900(i think that's very unlikely to happen). unless you know of a fix i would not play any ml over -200.

[LT Profits]

Example here guys...today Wisconsin is a -12 favorite over Northwestern...the ML is currently at -900 and the SBR converter says that a college basketball game with a spread of -12 would convert to well over -1000....so would Wisconsin be an example of a good ML play to maybe parlay with another?

Correct, in CBB, -900 is eqiuivalent to -10.5 +103, which is better than -12

[Power Play]

don't get me wrong there may be value in SOME big favorites but from my experience playing them are generally not the way to go. it is not conducive to my way of handicapping so i avoid them entirely.

[jolmscheid]

I gotcha...I was just thinking that maybe I could parlay them together and get profits...but over the long it prolly won't work huh?

[Power Play]

many people like parley but generally (especially for inexperience betters) they end up giving up too much juice. it works to vegas's favor usually that's why they offer it. straight bet at dime line (-105/-105) or better is the way to go. develop your own system/sources/handicapping method.

[phans3]

a ev- bet will stay a ev- bet however you bet it

so will this system work? sure if the bets you pick are ev+ it will otherwise it won't work

[skrtelfan]

That moneyline converter must rely on excessively small samples because there are some examples there that simply can't be correct. According to that ML converter, an NFL favorite of -7 -110 is the equivalent of ML -371. You'll lose your shirt taking ML -360 instead of -7 -110.