What's the key to betting in the nba

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  • swisher33
    Restricted User
    • 11-01-09
    • 275

    #1
    What's the key to betting in the nba
    Are totals or spread easier to bet on?
  • frankbettor
    SBR Hustler
    • 02-12-10
    • 70

    #2
    none of it is easy. it depends on whether or not you have an advantage in selecting winning picks for sides or totals. there is no magic formula--both are extremely profitable. I can tell you this...if you do your homework and use some common sense the cash will show up in spades. good luck man!
    Comment
    • Peep
      SBR MVP
      • 06-23-08
      • 2295

      #3
      Originally posted by frankbettor
      none of it is easy. it depends on whether or not you have an advantage in selecting winning picks for sides or totals. there is no magic formula--both are extremely profitable. I can tell you this...if you do your homework and use some common sense the cash will show up in spades. good luck man!
      Yeah, whatever he said.

      I don't know how these dumb books stay in business!
      Comment
      • Wrecktangle
        SBR MVP
        • 03-01-09
        • 1524

        #4
        For me, totals are easier early in the season (1st two months). Sides are more consistent throughout the year but easier in 1st two months, tougher in the next two, and finish the year tougher than the 1st two, but easier than the 2nd two.
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        • 20Four7
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 04-08-07
          • 6703

          #5
          I can do totals as well as flipping a coin. When I do a kelly analysis of my betting on sides it says I should bet 1K when I do totals it says I should be 65 dollars..... you figure it out.
          Comment
          • egr99
            SBR Sharp
            • 07-26-09
            • 310

            #6
            Originally posted by Wrecktangle
            For me, totals are easier early in the season (1st two months). Sides are more consistent throughout the year but easier in 1st two months, tougher in the next two, and finish the year tougher than the 1st two, but easier than the 2nd two.
            Totals seem super sharp after 6-8 weeks.
            Comment
            • BigdaddyQH
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 07-13-09
              • 19530

              #7
              It all depends on who is calling the game. Some refs call a very tight game, allowing for more free throws. Others call a very loose game, allowing for less free throws. That is the secret when it comes to wagering totals in NBA Hoops. As far as sides go, I have no idea. Find out who has the fix in, I guess. Now let me take a wild stab at this. You guys think that since one ref got caught shading games, and was convicted, all is well with the NBA Ref's, right? That is why I never wager on NBA games.
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              • durito
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 07-03-06
                • 13173

                #8
                Which bet has the lower limits?
                Comment
                • JohnAnthony
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 04-30-09
                  • 5110

                  #9
                  Originally posted by durito
                  Which bet has the lower limits?
                  Hmmm, why does it matter durito? enlighten me once more.
                  "I have never seen a wild thing feel sorry for itself. A little bird will fall dead, frozen from a bough, without ever having felt sorry for itself."

                  - D.H. Lawrence
                  Comment
                  • wesleysnipes
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 06-28-09
                    • 465

                    #10
                    Know your shit
                    Comment
                    • TGoat
                      Restricted User
                      • 08-07-09
                      • 612

                      #11
                      Originally posted by swisher33
                      Are totals or spread easier to bet on?
                      Sides.

                      Here's why in my opinion. Suppose a game is coming up and you project team A to score 110 points and team Y to score 120 points. Team Y is a -2 point favorite and the total is something like 225.

                      You would bet Team Y -2 and over 225.

                      Now if the game ends up 100-90, 105-95, 110-100, 115-105, you win the side in all cases but lose all the totals. The ten point margin of victory was there in every example, just as you projected, but they all went under.

                      If you're any good at handicapping and projecting outcomes, then you'll have a lot more ways to hit the sides than the totals.

                      Originally, I thought totals were easier, but after looking at hundreds and hundreds of games I came to the realization that it's very hard to predict whether a certain game is going to be high scoring or low scoring. Sometimes they just shoot the lights out and other times they can't buy a basket. Or, conversely, one team shoots lights out and the other team throws up nothing but bricks.

                      What ends up happening, is that more often than not the predicted side will come out as expected, but the total will be up for grabs.
                      Last edited by TGoat; 02-13-10, 07:49 AM.
                      Comment
                      • Reload
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 03-23-08
                        • 12249

                        #12
                        Sides have gone better for me. Totals are likely more profitable for most as long as you manage money well and spread out risk over lots of games.
                        Comment
                        • Ruifgalmeida
                          SBR MVP
                          • 04-23-08
                          • 2024

                          #13
                          I am not and expert in nba, but i think bookies undervalue the dogs and overvalue the favorites.
                          Comment
                          • DoubleEM
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 09-15-09
                            • 241

                            #14
                            Originally posted by JohnAnthony
                            Hmmm, why does it matter durito? enlighten me once more.
                            If a book has lower limits in a certain market, it feels there is more risk in accepting bets in that market. So, in the book's eyes, that market is easier to beat.
                            Comment
                            • mihaita666
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 09-13-09
                              • 8596

                              #15
                              the key is watch as many teams as possible, and fade the public on straight bets
                              Soccer record (2010) : 244-160-24
                              2010-2011 season (soccer) :
                              144-95-11
                              NBA Record (2010-2011 season) :
                              17-12-1


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                              • bostonbruins
                                SBR MVP
                                • 04-02-08
                                • 3272

                                #16
                                be a ref, those guys clean up
                                Comment
                                • roasthawg
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-09-07
                                  • 2990

                                  #17
                                  I do about the same on each... like others have said I do my most damage early in the season.
                                  Comment
                                  • suicidekings
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 03-23-09
                                    • 9962

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by durito
                                    Which bet has the lower limits?
                                    Originally posted by TGoat
                                    Originally, I thought totals were easier, but after looking at hundreds and hundreds of games I came to the realization that it's very hard to predict whether a certain game is going to be high scoring or low scoring. Sometimes they just shoot the lights out and other times they can't buy a basket. Or, conversely, one team shoots lights out and the other team throws up nothing but bricks.
                                    Durito basically gave the key to which the books think are easier to beat. Some totals are extremely predictable and some aren't.
                                    Comment
                                    • gwiz
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-09-10
                                      • 1790

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by TGoat
                                      Sides.

                                      Here's why in my opinion. Suppose a game is coming up and you project team A to score 110 points and team Y to score 120 points. Team Y is a -2 point favorite and the total is something like 225.

                                      You would bet Team Y -2 and over 225.

                                      Now if the game ends up 100-90, 105-95, 110-100, 115-105, you win the side in all cases but lose all the totals. The ten point margin of victory was there in every example, just as you projected, but they all went under.

                                      If you're any good at handicapping and projecting outcomes, then you'll have a lot more ways to hit the sides than the totals.

                                      Originally, I thought totals were easier, but after looking at hundreds and hundreds of games I came to the realization that it's very hard to predict whether a certain game is going to be high scoring or low scoring. Sometimes they just shoot the lights out and other times they can't buy a basket. Or, conversely, one team shoots lights out and the other team throws up nothing but bricks.

                                      What ends up happening, is that more often than not the predicted side will come out as expected, but the total will be up for grabs.
                                      predicting how a team will shoot is near impossible as every shot is a micromillisecond reaction

                                      much better to predict who will play defense IMO
                                      Comment
                                      • gwiz
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-09-10
                                        • 1790

                                        #20
                                        by predicting the defense it gives an idea of who will likely be shooting lower percentage shots which by definition gives the other side an edge

                                        it is like playing a safety in pool as opposed to going for a hard shot only to miss and be unsure of how easy a shot your opponent will get
                                        Comment
                                        • TGoat
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 08-07-09
                                          • 612

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by gwiz
                                          by predicting the defense it gives an idea of who will likely be shooting lower percentage shots which by definition gives the other side an edge
                                          It's my experience observing many games, that the bad teams are taking a lot of low percentage shots. If they're hitting, however, like Golden State is prone to do, then it's lights out.

                                          Bad teams just can't or are unwilling to score in the paint. It seems like every time they try they throw up a brick, an air ball, turn the ball over, or miss a lay-up.

                                          So they go back to the outside shot.
                                          Comment
                                          • louis.ana
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 02-09-09
                                            • 359

                                            #22
                                            Totals are tough to predict, depends on the tempo of the game.. which one will not know until the game has started. Do the teams come out playing aggressively? Are they answering each other shots? Is everyone healthy or not partied out from last night?

                                            Sides work better for me, at least you are dealing with who is the better team and how much better they are or not.
                                            Comment
                                            • LT Profits
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 10-27-06
                                              • 90963

                                              #23
                                              The answer is virtually always the same regardless of what sport you are asking about:

                                              Totals are almost always easier to beat than sides.
                                              Comment
                                              • mrbigballs
                                                SBR Rookie
                                                • 02-10-10
                                                • 25

                                                #24
                                                dude if you have to ask dont bet !! i guess you don't know your S**t if you are asking, well heck i will book your action.........loser
                                                Comment
                                                • daneault23
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 09-08-09
                                                  • 3863

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                  The answer is virtually always the same regardless of what sport you are asking about:

                                                  Totals are almost always easier to beat than sides.
                                                  How do you figure that?
                                                  Comment
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