Thanks to everyone who helped my question in this thread: http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...-line-mls.html
Now I have another one. Everyone here knows that you get an edge by beating the closing line. Exactly how do you know (in percentage) how much you beat it be?
Say you bet the Bears -2.5 vs. the Vikings and it closes at -3.5. According to the HPC, the 3 has push probability of 9.79%. So you're ahead of the market by 9.79%. Now do you subtract -4.55% (your edge on a bet at -110) from 9.79% to give you an EV of +5.24%? Or do you subtract 2.4% (because you need to hit 52.4% to break even) from the push probabilities you beat?
Now I have another one. Everyone here knows that you get an edge by beating the closing line. Exactly how do you know (in percentage) how much you beat it be?
Say you bet the Bears -2.5 vs. the Vikings and it closes at -3.5. According to the HPC, the 3 has push probability of 9.79%. So you're ahead of the market by 9.79%. Now do you subtract -4.55% (your edge on a bet at -110) from 9.79% to give you an EV of +5.24%? Or do you subtract 2.4% (because you need to hit 52.4% to break even) from the push probabilities you beat?