Is betting 3 % per game, betting 5-10 games per day too much over the long-term?

**Naz18** · 03-21-10, 07:09 PM

I bet around 10 games a day but I use 1% of my bankroll for a unit.

**Sawyer** · 03-21-10, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by wesleysnipes

The less games you play, and the higher percentage you hit- the less money you make. The more games you play, and even if your percentage is lower- mid 50's, you'll make more money.

This is wrong. You'll always make more money if you're selective and have a better winning percentage.

People think you will make more money if you hit %55 over 100 games then %60 over 40 games. This is wrong. Of course, you'll make more money if you can hit %60 over 40 games!

Odds are -110 (1.91) and you're bettin flat.
Risking 100 to win 91.

You play 100 games, hit rate is %55. You play 100$ per game so you risked 10,000. You picked %55 Winners.

55 x 1.91 = 105.05
105.05 - 100 = 5.05

5.05 x 100$ = +505$ Net Profit

You play 40 games and your hit rate is %60. You risked 10,000 above so when you play 50 games with 10k, it makes 250$ per game.

40 Games, 24 Won, 16 Lost.
24 x 1.91 = 45.84
45.84 - 40 = 5.84

5.84 x 250 = +1460$ Net Profit

Selectivity is the key guys. The guy who play less games with better winning percentage will always make more profit on the long haul.

**crownontheground** · 03-21-10, 08:01 PM

I try to not go over 2% if it's a 10 game day

**donjuan** · 03-21-10, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Selectivity is the key guys. The guy who play less games with better winning percentage will always have a better ROI on the long haul.
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I'd rather make more money than have a higher ROI.

**Dark Horse** · 03-22-10, 04:44 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

This is wrong. You'll always make more money if you're selective and have a better winning percentage.

People think you will make more money if you hit %55 over 100 games then %60 over 40 games. This is wrong. Of course, you'll make more money if you can hit %60 over 40 games!

You picked numbers to fit your argument. What about 2000 games at 54%?

**PAULYPOKER** · 03-22-10, 05:14 AM

If you are betting 10 games a day I can't help you cause this is not my style I only bet 1 to 2 games per day if that but have a much higher win rate because I'm very selective on my final choice most of the time I don't have my final decision made until last possible minute so I am able to successfully wager 15% of my bankroll per wager

**Sawyer** · 03-22-10, 05:22 AM

You will have a much better winning percentage if you're playing 2-3 picks/day.
Your winning percentage will be worse if you're playing 10-20 picks/day.

**Sawyer** · 03-22-10, 05:28 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

You picked numbers to fit your argument. What about 2000 games at 54%?

2000 games %54 vs 100 games %60.

Total risked Unit will be 10,000.

100 Games, 60 Win, 40 Lost.
You played 100 Games, since Total Risked Unit is 10,000 you're risking 100$ per game. (100 x 100 = 10,000)

60 x 1.91 = 114.6
114.6 - 100 = 14.6
14.6 x 100$ = +1460

2000 Games, 1080 Win, 920 Lost.
Total Risked Unit should be 10,000 so if you're picking 2000 games, you will place 5$ per game.
1080 x 1.91 = 2062
2062 - 2000 = 62
62 x 5$ = 310$

Conclusion: 310$ vs 1460$, LoL!

**Dark Horse** · 03-22-10, 05:51 AM

You're laughing, so I'm assuming that you're not serious.

**magynuck** · 03-22-10, 08:53 AM

Sawyer you are wrong and dispensing false information and unfortunately some people might believe you. It goes without saying that you will have a better ROI betting less games but as Don pointed out the goal is to make more money. IF you can recognize when you have a +EV situation then you bet it. The more you are able to find the more money you make. Anybody who cannot understand this concept has no future.

Your example with numbers will be added to my repertoire while teaching on how to use numbers to deceive. It did make me laugh out loud though. In the first example you prove that you will make more money betting $250 a game versus $100 and in the 2nd $100 versus $5.

**donjuan** · 03-22-10, 11:51 AM

Sawyer,

Thanks for the good laugh to start my morning. Now do the same thing with the same or similar wager sizes.

**Peep** · 03-22-10, 11:52 AM

It goes without saying that you will have a better ROI betting less games

I have never found that to be true.

It is on some of my stranger bets that look very iffy that I have made the most money (had the highest return on investment). I have found it is usually the case that "if it looks too good to be true" it probably is trap city.

**SparJMU** · 03-24-10, 10:10 AM

I think 3% oer game is a little high. I would recommend betting 1% of your bankroll on most games. Set reasonable expectations for yourself. Betting too much will sink you quick.