Multiple Shops... Same Plays... Different Winning %

[egr99]

Strange situation... I've been generating plays using a set formula (or whatever you want to call it)... Been doing well since I tested with prior data and put it live.

I have been putting in the plays with a couple different locals (4) who use different PPH shops, always trying to get the better line. Over the course of a couple hundred (300+) plays so far, I been beating the closing line approx 70-80% of the time across all the shops. I do put slightly more plays in 1 local account because of the reduced -105 juice but they move quick. They pretty much clone PINNYs lines in most cases.

Now, the situation which I find a little strange is my winning pct is pretty much the same across all the accounts EXCEPT one. Now, I am pretty much always beating this shop and getting the better number AND laying -110. My winning percentage at this shop is way below the average of the other 3 shops. I am beating them by 0.5-1pt on average on NBA 2H Total plays and 1-2 pts on CBB/NBA Totals.

I know a couple hundred plays is probably not a large enough sample and it may be a short term trend. Is it possible however the shop I am betting into is much sharper than the others ? They do follow the screen though, and in general are a tad slower on moves and shade the favorites/overs by a half pt here and there.

Should I take this shops lean/position into account when making my plays?


egr99

[Justin7]

It is very possible.

Why are their lines different on some games? Can you discern a pattern? Are they taking something into account that you are not?

[egr99]

Well, from what I've seen they are a very conservative shop. They ALWAYS shade the favorites/overs on the ML in sports like MLB/NHL 5c-10c, very conservative on pt buying with higher juice. They don't allow buying -3 to -2.5 in the NFL for instance. Teasers and parlay juice/odds are just horrible with very small caps on the parlay payouts etc...

They are definatly good to have for betting DOGs (ATS&ML)/UNDERs etc... Get alot of free half pts on NBA/NCAAB... But like I said my winning pct % is much lower than average...

Example on a CBB side, say I can get +5.5 -105 (or -110) across the other shops but with them its +6 -110. I look at the Half pt calculator here and it shows +6 -118.9, so I am guessing in *this situation* I am better putting in my play at +6 -110... Correct? This is mostly the type of plays I put with them, I obviously try and keep as many of my plays at the -105 for obvious reason when the lines are identical.

I do not think its because my DOG/UNDER plays aren't as good, because when i do the overall winning pct % of all the plays including the other shops it averages out in the range I believe I should be hitting.

egr99

[Dunder]

Shaded lines are one explanation, particularly if the book in question is renowned for offering sharp lines (like Pinny). If this is the case then some investigation and adjustments might be needed.

If, however, the book simply has a tendency shades lines towards favourites (like SIA or Bodog) then coincidence is a far more likely explaination. By all means look for patterns but in all likelihood you will turn it round just by continuing to beat closers.

Speaking for myself, I got absolutely hammered playing at BetPhoenix. I did nothing wrong and it came at a time when I did fairly well overall but for whatever reason I was hitting at a rate of below 40% of wagers placed at BP. That was also a very small sample.

[egr99]

Dunder, thats what im thinking. They dont offer reduced juice, thats my other out, but they seem to follow a combination of Pinny / CRIS and hang wichever is more shaded towards the fav/over with always a flat -110.

I am pretty confident as you said that beating the closer even on them will eventually turn around. The sample size is definatly too small.



egr99

[Peep]

So call me stupid.

I can't see why you are worried about any of this if you are generating your own plays. If you are originating, I would think that just playing the best number available at what ever shop has the best number would work best. Let them worry about what you are going to bet, and keep working on fine tuning your model rather than worry about some coked up bookmakers rational for moving a number.