What level of statistics do I need to be at to create my first model?

[brettd]

I've recently decided I would like to endevour in creating my first statistical sport model. I've taken out my old business statistics books from university, and am half through the first 600 page book.

I'm just wondering, where do I need to be at in terms of my statistical knowledge, before I can approach creating my first model? What areas do i need to especially focus on, that are most pertinent to the process of modelling?

Thanks in advance.

[MonkeyF0cker]

To create your first model? Not a great deal. To create your first profitable model? A pretty comprehensive understanding.

[Justin7]

If you can use 8th grade algebra, and can run regressions in Excel or zunzun (even if you aren't a stat wiz), you can make money.

[Sinister Cat]

Focus on the regression part Maybe check out Buchdahl, Fixed odds Sports Betting.

[roasthawg]

Minimal knowledge of stats imo... slightly higher knowledge level of computers is required imo. Having a mathematical mind is probably the most important thing.

[JohnAnthony]

If you can use 8th grade algebra, and can run regressions in Excel or zunzun (even if you aren't a stat wiz), you can make money.

Any books/sources you can recommend Justin?

[byronbb]

How about we re-phrase the question and ask "What is the least difficult bet in sports to model"?

[Justin7]

Any books/sources you can recommend Justin?

I'll have a crash course on this in my book.

Just finished the section on WNBA modeling.

[JohnAnthony]

I'll have a crash course on this in my book. Just finished the section on WNBA modeling.

When is it coming out? please offer an e-book version!

[OMGRandyJackson]

Yes I am looking forward to your book as well!

[Justin7]

Probably July.

[JoeVig]

I got a 8th grade education, studied readin and cypherin, and I'm gonna be a double knot spy.

[Peep]

I think you should first consider what your model wants to test for first.

Then chose data accordingly.

[Jaug]

I'll have a crash course on this in my book.

Just finished the section on WNBA modeling.

I will buy that book

OT: Justin, have you been featured on ESPN regarding dr bob? They follow a "professional gambler" that looks just like you in the segment.

http://assets.espn.go.com/ivp/player/player195.swf?mediaId=3066691&n8pe6c=3

[Justin7]

Yes, that's me. And I love that shirt, even though my wife has tried to throw it out several times.

[JVP3122]

Justin, I'm very interested in this book. As roasthawg said was needed, I have a very mathematical mind, I'm working on a PhD in applied math, but not a statistical mind. I'm reading up on prob and stat theory, including Bayesian methods, but I'm wondering how much help this book will be to the average bettor. I'm going to try and write this without sounding disrespectful. I feel like a capper releases his method of capping when the method no longer works, as if the information is available to the general public then the edge to the bettor is lost. My thought process is that if you sell this book on how to create models for the different sports, then a lot of people are going to be creating very similar models and it would take the edge away from the average bettor. I'm wondering if you could comment on this. Don't get me wrong, I'll be the first to buy the book as much of applied math is modeling itself, but not statistical modeling so I'll be very interested to see your methods. As I said, I just worry that as I read your book and work on a model then everyone else who buys the book will be doing the same thing and it will put me in the same position of losing money in my betting.

[Justin7]

Jvp,

the average bettor doesn't want to work. Running a good model is a lot of work. Your average reader will say "Wow, that's neat. I bet I could do it. But that's a lot of work, so I'll just keep doing what I'm doing."

[JVP3122]

Cool, then it sounds like the perfect thing for me. Thanks for the explanation.

[IrishTim]

Cool, then it sounds like the perfect thing for me. Thanks for the explanation.

JVP, from what I've seen through reading Justin's posts and exchanging PMs and e-mails, he isn't going to hold your hand through creating a model (or anything else related in sports betting). He'll answer any questions thoughtfully and concisely and point you in the right direction and tell you when you're headed in the wrong direction, but he isn't going to do it for you.

I may be wrong about the book, but I don't think it'd be J7's style to break it down so that a 2nd grader could understand it. My guess is that he's going to assume a fairly innovative and educated reader and give us the tools to create our own model, but not be so precise that every person who reads it creates the exact same model.

[JVP3122]

I understand exactly what you're saying and I wouldn't expect that. He's worked hard to be good at this and to expect him to just give away stuff to someone that wants to make some quick money is ridiculous. You can understand what my original concern was, though. As I said before, I feel like I have the knowledge that would help me understand the making of the model, it's just that I would have no idea where to start; like I would be weighing the wrong variables more than others. If this book is what I gather from what you're implying, then it's going to be perfect for me.

[MrX]

All of the information required for an enterprising and hard-working person to successfully model sports is already out there. A book is nothing but bad news for those who had the ability to figure it out themselves.

[Justin7]

All of the information required for an enterprising and hard-working person to successfully model sports is already out there. A book is nothing but bad news for those who had the ability to figure it out themselves.

I look at how I've made money in the last 8 years of sports betting. It's almost always a new sport, different technique, new method every year. I'm always studying things, and always finding free money.

I think if I lost every tool I already have, it wouldn't set me back much. I don't know if you can teach people to think, but many peoples' lives would be much easier if they could.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I look at how I've made money in the last 8 years of sports betting. It's almost always a new sport, different technique, new method every year. I'm always studying things, and always finding free money.

I think if I lost every tool I already have, it wouldn't set me back much. I don't know if you can teach people to think, but many peoples' lives would be much easier if they could.

When you can convince anyone with half of a brain that higher efficiency is a positive for handicappers, then you MIGHT have an argument. However, you'll NEVER be able to do so. I hope, for your sake, the books will be paying you well for doing them such a huge favor.

[OMGRandyJackson]

Hey Justin, will posters at SBR get a discount on your book lol?

[Patrick McIrish]

Justin, I'm very interested in this book. As roasthawg said was needed, I have a very mathematical mind, I'm working on a PhD in applied math, but not a statistical mind. I'm reading up on prob and stat theory, including Bayesian methods, but I'm wondering how much help this book will be to the average bettor. I'm going to try and write this without sounding disrespectful. I feel like a capper releases his method of capping when the method no longer works, as if the information is available to the general public then the edge to the bettor is lost. My thought process is that if you sell this book on how to create models for the different sports, then a lot of people are going to be creating very similar models and it would take the edge away from the average bettor. I'm wondering if you could comment on this. Don't get me wrong, I'll be the first to buy the book as much of applied math is modeling itself, but not statistical modeling so I'll be very interested to see your methods. As I said, I just worry that as I read your book and work on a model then everyone else who buys the book will be doing the same thing and it will put me in the same position of losing money in my betting.

Valid post and something others are probably thinking as well. I know in the past there are things even posted here that I wish wasn't addressed on a public forum. I don't want to be a prick but it would have been a lot easier if someone had giftwrapped some of this for me. In the "old days" there would have been a lot of crying from a lot of people on some areas of discussion, I think pro's played it closer to the vest than they do today.

[BigdaddyQH]

I look at how I've made money in the last 8 years of sports betting. It's almost always a new sport, different technique, new method every year. I'm always studying things, and always finding free money.

I think if I lost every tool I already have, it wouldn't set me back much. I don't know if you can teach people to think, but many peoples' lives would be much easier if they could.

I agree with that. Last year's model is basically worthless because of the corrections that the books make. To me, sports wagering is very similar to playing poker. The book takes a percentage of the pot, so to speak, just like any poker table does. To me, it is me against the person who is wagering on the other team. My job is to beat him. Not the book. The only difference is when I put myself in a situation to where the odds are greatly in my favor, and that is by middling. Then I am in a position of losing a very small amount of my wager (5%) or winning a very large amount of money (2X a normal win).

When you say "finding free money", you are really saying that you are finding monies that are thrown away by the many losers out there, and nothing more. For every one or two brainiacs who try to find systems that may or may not work, there are hundreds of guys who throw away thousands of dollars on wagers made with their hearts, while they are half drunk. Everyone out there has to be Mr. Macho. What the casinos, books, and successful gamblers have learned to do is to use that against them.

[donjuan]

When you can convince anyone with half of a brain that higher efficiency is a positive for handicappers, then you MIGHT have an argument. However, you'll NEVER be able to do so. I hope, for your sake, the books will be paying you well for doing them such a huge favor.

Definitely not a positive for handicappers. But it is a positive for some areas, with basic strat teasers being a shining example.

[durito]

Definitely not a positive for handicappers. But it is a positive for some areas, with basic strat teasers being a shining example.

Except that shortly no books are going to offer decent teaser odds which is probably a result of this strategy being in published in a book years ago.



Can I not be on post review in the think tank too?

[donjuan]

Except that shortly no books are going to offer decent teaser odds which is probably a result of this strategy being in published in a book years ago.



Can I not be on post review in the think tank too?

Yeah, was referring to market efficiency rather than published info but of course you are correct.

[SparJMU]

Justin, can you give a simple explanation of what you mean by running regressions within excel? I am very familiar with excel but not with regressions.