I created a model for MLB that is threatening to end the industry.

**HoleWrecker** · 06-05-25, 02:22 PM

Adding Twins -186

**mjsuax13** · 06-05-25, 06:38 PM

Track everything here…

**HoleWrecker** · 06-06-25, 02:51 AM

6-6-2025

Giants +122

**HoleWrecker** · 06-07-25, 03:24 AM

6-7-2025

Astros/Guardians under 7.5 -120 2 Units

**HoleWrecker** · 06-07-25, 09:13 PM

6-8-2025

Phillies/Pirates under 7 -115

**HoleWrecker** · 06-08-25, 12:49 AM

6-8-2025

Phillies/Pirates under 7 -115
Twins -170

**HoleWrecker** · 06-08-25, 08:04 PM

6-9-2025

Reds/Guardians under 8.5 +100

**HoleWrecker** · 06-10-25, 12:42 AM

6-10-2025

Angels -155

**HoleWrecker** · 06-10-25, 03:04 AM

6-10-2025

Angels -155

Giants -225

We don’t normally like laying this kind of juice. In fact, we actively avoid it most of the time. But sometimes, the numbers justify it — and today’s Giants vs Rockies matchup is one of those cases.

The line is sitting around –225, which implies a 69% win probability. That’s steep. But our internal model — which weighs starting pitcher quality, bullpen performance, offensive metrics, and home/road splits — projects the Giants closer to 73% to win. That gives us about a +4% edge over the market, which is significant when all signals align.

Matchup Breakdown:

Starting Pitchers: Kyle Harrison (SF) vs Carson Palmquist (COL).
Harrison’s been solid: 4.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 19 K in 18.2 IP. Palmquist? 8.50 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, high walk rate. Clear mismatch.
Bullpens: Giants pen ranks top 10 in ERA/WHIP; Rockies’ pen is bottom-tier in both.
Offense: SF has consistent producers in Ramos, Chapman, Flores. Colorado is hitting .219 as a team with one real threat (Hunter Goodman).
Trends: Giants are hot — 5 straight wins. Rockies are 6–25 at home this season. Not a typo.

This isn’t a YOLO pick. It’s not a square “better team wins” take. It’s a spot where every edge stacks up: SP, bullpen, offense, team form, home/road trend, and even motivation.

We’ll usually pass on laying –225. But when our model says it should be –270 or worse, we listen.

Final Play: Giants ML (–225)
Let’s cash it.

**HoleWrecker** · 06-11-25, 01:17 AM

6-11-2025

Angels -130

**Chiefs83** · 06-12-25, 01:23 AM

Keep it going nice picks last couple days

**HoleWrecker** · 06-12-25, 11:36 PM

6-13-2025

Mets -159

**HoleWrecker** · 06-13-25, 02:08 PM

6-13-2025

Mets -159

Royals -152

**HoleWrecker** · 06-15-25, 11:21 AM

6-15-2025

Royals -148

**HoleWrecker** · 06-15-25, 11:51 AM

6-15-2025

Giants +1.5

Royals -148

**HoleWrecker** · 06-15-25, 02:05 PM

6-15-2025

Giants +1.5

Royals -148

Dodgers team total under 5 -148

**HoleWrecker** · 06-16-25, 12:37 AM

6-16-2025

Rays -120

**HoleWrecker** · 06-16-25, 02:22 PM

6-16-2025

Rays -120

Mariners -166

Nationals -165

**HoleWrecker** · 06-16-25, 09:31 PM

6-17-2025

Giants -153

**HoleWrecker** · 06-18-25, 02:38 PM

6-18-2025

Blue Jays -110

**HoleWrecker** · 06-19-25, 01:45 AM

6-19-2025

Giants -158

**HoleWrecker** · 06-19-25, 02:00 PM

6-19-2025

Braves/Mets first 5 under 4.5 -115

Giants -168

**HoleWrecker** · 06-20-25, 03:02 PM

6-20-2025

F5 Rays/Tigers under 4.5 -125

**HoleWrecker** · 06-20-25, 05:18 PM

6-20-2025

Giants -120
F5 Rays/Tigers under 4.5 -125

**HoleWrecker** · 06-21-25, 01:30 PM

6-21-2025

Rockies/Dbacks over 12 -110

F5 Angels/Astros under 4 +100

**HoleWrecker** · 06-21-25, 11:43 PM

6-22-2025

Giants -150

**HoleWrecker** · 06-22-25, 02:32 PM

6-22-2025

Giants -150

Dodgers -220

**HoleWrecker** · 06-23-25, 01:18 PM

6-23-2025

Braved F5 -150

**HoleWrecker** · 06-23-25, 08:10 PM

6-23-2025

Braves F5 -150 (win)

Angels +100 Full Game

**HoleWrecker** · 2025-06-24T07:39:37+00:00

Back to back 2-0 days LFG

**HoleWrecker** · 2025-06-24T07:39:58+00:00

6-24-2025

Giants -170

**HoleWrecker** · 2025-06-24T19:05:13+00:00

June 24, 2025

Giants -170
Yankees -153
Phillies/Astros F5 Under 3.5 (+105)

**d2bets** · 2025-06-24T21:18:53+00:00

What's your weighted record? Why are you not tracking?

**HoleWrecker** · 2025-06-25T08:27:04+00:00

Ill post the record tomorrow