I created a model for MLB that is threatening to end the industry.

[HoleWrecker]

It started slow but then I made some tweaks to it and now its on fire. Im super excited about this. Its 11-3 on my last 14 MLB plays up around 12 units.

The model is based on advanced statistics, trends and lines. What is extremely encouraging is it picks only a couple games a day and barring negative variance it seems to be spot on, especially on the totals. I'll start posting here so people can see for themselves.

6-5-25

Giants -114
Mets/Dodgers under 9.5 -109
Pirates/Astros under 7.5 +100

[HoleWrecker]

Adding Twins -186

[mjsuax13]

Track everything here…

[HoleWrecker]

6-6-2025

Giants +122

[HoleWrecker]

6-7-2025

Astros/Guardians under 7.5 -120 2 Units

[HoleWrecker]

6-8-2025

Phillies/Pirates under 7 -115

[HoleWrecker]

6-8-2025

Phillies/Pirates under 7 -115
Twins -170

[HoleWrecker]

6-9-2025

Reds/Guardians under 8.5 +100

[HoleWrecker]

6-10-2025

Angels -155

[HoleWrecker]

6-10-2025

Angels -155

Giants -225


We don’t normally like laying this kind of juice. In fact, we actively avoid it most of the time. But sometimes, the numbers justify it — and today’s Giants vs Rockies matchup is one of those cases.

The line is sitting around –225, which implies a 69% win probability. That’s steep. But our internal model — which weighs starting pitcher quality, bullpen performance, offensive metrics, and home/road splits — projects the Giants closer to 73% to win. That gives us about a +4% edge over the market, which is significant when all signals align.

Matchup Breakdown:

• Starting Pitchers: Kyle Harrison (SF) vs Carson Palmquist (COL).
  Harrison’s been solid: 4.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 19 K in 18.2 IP. Palmquist? 8.50 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, high walk rate. Clear mismatch.
• Bullpens: Giants pen ranks top 10 in ERA/WHIP; Rockies’ pen is bottom-tier in both.
• Offense: SF has consistent producers in Ramos, Chapman, Flores. Colorado is hitting .219 as a team with one real threat (Hunter Goodman).
• Trends: Giants are hot — 5 straight wins. Rockies are 6–25 at home this season. Not a typo.

This isn’t a YOLO pick. It’s not a square “better team wins” take. It’s a spot where every edge stacks up: SP, bullpen, offense, team form, home/road trend, and even motivation.

We’ll usually pass on laying –225. But when our model says it should be –270 or worse, we listen.

Final Play: Giants ML (–225)
Let’s cash it.

[HoleWrecker]

6-11-2025

Angels -130

[Chiefs83]

Keep it going nice picks last couple days

[HoleWrecker]

6-13-2025

Mets -159

[HoleWrecker]

6-13-2025

Mets -159

Royals -152

[HoleWrecker]

6-15-2025

Royals -148

[HoleWrecker]

6-15-2025

Giants +1.5

Royals -148

[HoleWrecker]

6-15-2025

Giants +1.5

Royals -148

Dodgers team total under 5 -148