My NBA Totals experiment/system worksheet
Concistancy Risk Factor:
Green=Lowest=1-8
Blue=low=8-13
Orange=High=13-20
Red=Highest=20-any#
Abbreviations:
+-=Plus or Minus/#color=tolerance risk factor
ave=average
comb=combined
combM=combined miiddle
mid-ave=middle average= total score middle average in last 5 games
MTave=middle&true average combined
rf=always means both risk factor&room for
*rfe=room for error=Team total consistency risk factor
rfem=room for error middle=combined middle average risk factor
rfet=room for error true=combined true average risk factor
rfete=room for error total estimated= - sign= leaning to under of the Tps-est./+sign leaning to over of Tps-est./#color=rf
tad=true average difference=1-8-13-20
Tps-est.=Total predicted score estimated-sign leaning to under/+sign leaning to over of Tps-est./#color=rfe
true ave=True average
comb.M=combined middle=+-#rfem
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Risks involved having a bearing factor on the Total outcome in order most to least
except for rfete number it goes as explained
1.rfete#=+or-#color=most likely to happen and+or-#color least likely to happen
1.tad
2.rfet
3.rfem
4.*rfe
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OT=overtime chance factor=high 1-2-3-4 low
=over as my prediction
=under as my prediction
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NBA schedule for Monday2/1/10-----------------------------
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Boston at Washington 7:00 PM
Boston last five games totals-Washington last five games totals
Sun,1/31 Lakers L 89-90 179----Sat,1/30Knicks W 106-96 202
Fri,1/29@Atlanta L 91-100 191-Fri,1/29@NewJerW 81-79 160
Thu,1/28@ Orlando L 94-96190-Tue,1/26Lakers L 103-115 218
Mon,1/25 ClippersW 95-89184--Sun,1/24 Clippers L 78-92 170
*Fri,1/22 Portland W 98-95 OT*---Fri,1/22 Miami L 88-112 200
Wed,1/20@Detroit L 86-92178-----------------------------------
Bostons-mid-ave.184+-6.5*rfe-----Wash.-mid-ave189+-29*rfe
Bostons-true-ave.184.5 ----------Wash.-true-ave 190-tad5.5
Bos./wash.-comb.MTave.=187+-3 rfet-- comb.M+-17.8 rfem
Head to Head: most recent
Thu, Dec 10 Boston at Washington104-102 L194½act. 206
(*indicates overtime which will not be used in this experiment)
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Boston at Washington7:00 PM
Tps-est.=196.5-9.5rfete-OT3 Actual opening line= 190
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Milwaukee at Miami7:30 PM
Milwaukee last five games totals-Miami last five games totals
Sat,1/30Miami W95-84-179---Sat,1/30@MilwaukL 84-95 -179
Wed,1/27 PhilaW 91-88-179----Fri,1/29@DetroitW 92-65 -157
Tue,1/26@DallasL107-108-209-Wed,1/27@ToronL103-111214
Sat,1/23MinnesoW 127-94-221-Mon,1/25ClevelanL91-92 -183
Fri,1/22@Toronto L 96-101-197-Sat,1/23SacramW115-84-199
Milw-mid-ave.200+-21rfe--------Mia-mid-ave.1851/2+-28.5rfe
Milw-true-ave.197----------------Mia-true-ave.186.5-tad10.5
Mil/Mia..-comb.MTave.=192.25+-7.7 rfet-comb.M=+-24.5rfem
Head to Head:Most recent:
Sat,1/30MiamiatMilwaukee 84-95 - L190Under act.179
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Milwaukee at Miami7:30 PM
Total-est.=185.6-6.6rfete-OT4 Actual opening line=1891/2
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Phoenix at New Orleans 8:00 PM
*Phoenixlast five games total*NewOrleanslast five games totals
Thu,1/28DallasW112-106-218Wed,1/27@GoldStW123-110233
Mon,1/25@UtahL115-124-239Mon,1/25@PortW98-97 -195
Sat,1/23GoldStW112-103-215Fri,1/22@MinnesotaW96-94-190
Fri,1/22ChicagoL104-115-219Wed,1/20MempW113-111 -224
Wed,1/20NewJerW118-94-212Mon,1/18San Ant.L 90-97 -187
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*Tue, Jan 26&Sun, Jan 31 were both OT games thus have a potential bearing factor for over
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*Sat,Jan23Fri,Jan29Sat,Jan30were OT games thus have a potential bearing factor for over
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Phoe-mid-ave.225.5+-13.5rfe--NewOr-mid ave.210+-23rfe
Phoe-true-ave.220.6------------NewOr-true-ave205.8-tad15
phoe/new.comb.MTave.=215.5+-10rfet-- comb.M=+-24.5 rfem
Head to Head:Most recent:
Thu,Nov.19 @ New Orleans L 103-110 L215und.-act.213
Wed, Nov 11 New Orleans W 124-104 L217½0ver-act.228
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Phoenix at New Orleans 8:00 PM 5 of last 15 games were OT
Total-est.=220.5+4rfete-OT2 Actual opening line=2101/2
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LA Lakers at Memphis 8:00 PM
LA Lakers-last five games totals/Memphis-last five games totals
Sun,1/31@BostonW90-89 -179-Fri,1/29@San AntL97-104-201
Fri,1/29@Phila W 99-91-190-Wed,1/27@Detroit W 99-93 -192
Wed,1/27@IndiW118-96-214-Mon,1/25 Orlando W99-94 -193
Tue,1/26@WashW115-103-218-Fri,1/22Okla City W86-84 -170
Sun,1/24@ToroL105-106-211-Wed,1/20@NewOrL111-113-224
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*, Jan 30 was an OT game for mepmhis thus having a potential bearing factor for the over
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LA-mid-ave.198.5+-19.5rfe--Memphis-mid ave.197+-27rfe
LA-true-ave.202.4------------Memphis-true-ave196-tad6.4
La/Memp.-comb.MTave=198.5+4-2.5rfet-- comb.M=+-23 rfem
Head to Head:Most recent:
Fri, Nov 6 Memphis W 114-98 -212
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LA Lakers at Memphis 8:00 PM
Total-est.=205+7rfete-OT3 Actual opening line=207
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Sacramento at Denver9:00 PM
Sacram.-last five games totals/Denver-last five games totals
Sat,1/30Charlot.L96-103-199-Sun,1/31@San AntW103-89-192
Fri,1/29@UtahL94-101-195-Fri,1/29@OklaCity L 84-101 -185
Tue,1/26Gold StW99-96-195-Wed,1/27@Hou. W 97-92 -189
Sat,1/23@MiamiL84-115-199-Mon,1/25CharlotW104-93 -197
Fri,1/22@OrlandoL84-100-184-Thu,1/21LA ClipW105-85 -190
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*, Jan 23 was an OT game for denver thus having a potential bearing factor for the over
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Sac-mid-ave.191.5+-7.5rfe--Denver-mid ave.191+-6 rfe
Sac-true-ave.194.5------------Denver-true-ave190.5-tad4
sac./den-comb.MTave.=192+2.5 -1rfet-- comb.M=+-6.75 rfem
Head to Head:Most recent:
01/09/2010-Sat.DEN-100-SAC-102-213-Under-act.202
12/28/2009-Mon-DEN-101-SAC-106-212-Under-act.207
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Sacramento at Denver9:00 PM
Total-est.=198.5+6rfete-OT3 Actual opening line=2101/2
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Dallas at Utah9:00 PM
Dallas.-last five games totals/-Utah-last five games totals
Thu,1/28@PhoeL106-112-218-Fri,1/29 Sac.W101-94 -195
Tue,1/26 MilwaW108-107-215-Wed,1/27@ Port.W106-95 -201
Sun,1/24@NY KnW128-78-206-Mon,1/25 Phoe.W124-115 -239
Fri, 1/22 @ Phila L 81-92-173-Sat,1/23 NewJer.W 116-83 -199
Wed,1/20@ WashW 94-93-187-Wed,1/20@SanAW105-98-203
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*, Jan 30 was an OT game for dallas thus having a potential bearing factor for the over
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Dallas-mid-ave.195.5+-22.5rfe--Utah-mid ave.217+-22 rfe
Dallas-true-ave.200------------Utah-true-ave207.5-tad7.5
Dal/utah-comb.MTave.=205+12-9.5rfet-- comb.M=+-22rfem
Head to Head:Most recent:
01/09/2010-Sat-UTA-111-DAL-93-195-Over-act.204
11/03/2009-Tue-UTA-85-DAL-96-202½-Under-act.181
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Dallas at Utah9:00 PM
Total-est.=199+6rfete-OT3 Actual opening line=1991/2
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Charlotte at Portland10:00 PM
Charlot-last five games totals/Port.-last five games totals
Sat,1/30@ Sac.W103-96-199-Fri,1/29@Hou.L100-104 -204
Fri,1/29@GoldSt.W121-110-231-Wed,1/27UtahL95-106 -201
Mon,1/25@DenverL93-104-195-Mon,1/25NewOrL97-98 -195
Fri,1/22@Atlanta L 89-103-192-Sat,1/23@Det.W 97-93-190
Mon,1/18 Sac. W 105-103-208-Wed,1/20@Phila.W98-90-188
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*, Jan 26&23 was OT games for Charlotte thus having a potential bearing factor for the over
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*, Jan 30&22 was OT games for Portland thus having a potential bearing factor for the over
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Charlot-mid-ave.211.5+-19.5rfe--Port.-mid ave.196+-8 rfe
Charlot-true-ave.205------------Port.-true-ave195.5-tad10.5
Char/Port-comb.MTave.=202+8.5-6.5rfet-comb.M=+-11.5rfem
Head to Head:Most recent:
11/14/2009-Sat-POR-80-CHR-74-171-Under-act.154
01/28/2009-Wed-CHR-74-POR-88 162
01/17/2009-Sat-POR-97-CHR-102 overtime
03/29/2008-Sat-CHR-93-POR-85 178
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Charlotte at Portland10:00 PM
Total-est.=183.5+12rfete-OT1 Actual opening line=1891/2
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Green=Lowest=1-8
Blue=low=8-13
Orange=High=13-20
Red=Highest=20-any#
Abbreviations:
+-=Plus or Minus/#color=tolerance risk factor
ave=average
comb=combined
combM=combined miiddle
mid-ave=middle average= total score middle average in last 5 games
MTave=middle&true average combined
rf=always means both risk factor&room for
*rfe=room for error=Team total consistency risk factor
rfem=room for error middle=combined middle average risk factor
rfet=room for error true=combined true average risk factor
rfete=room for error total estimated= - sign= leaning to under of the Tps-est./+sign leaning to over of Tps-est./#color=rf
tad=true average difference=1-8-13-20
Tps-est.=Total predicted score estimated-sign leaning to under/+sign leaning to over of Tps-est./#color=rfe
true ave=True average
comb.M=combined middle=+-#rfem
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Risks involved having a bearing factor on the Total outcome in order most to least
except for rfete number it goes as explained
1.rfete#=+or-#color=most likely to happen and+or-#color least likely to happen
1.tad
2.rfet
3.rfem
4.*rfe
---------------------------------------------------------------------
OT=overtime chance factor=high 1-2-3-4 low
=over as my prediction =under as my prediction---------------------------------------------------------------------
NBA schedule for Monday2/1/10-----------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Boston at Washington 7:00 PM
Boston last five games totals-Washington last five games totals
Sun,1/31 Lakers L 89-90 179----Sat,1/30Knicks W 106-96 202
Fri,1/29@Atlanta L 91-100 191-Fri,1/29@NewJerW 81-79 160
Thu,1/28@ Orlando L 94-96190-Tue,1/26Lakers L 103-115 218
Mon,1/25 ClippersW 95-89184--Sun,1/24 Clippers L 78-92 170
*Fri,1/22 Portland W 98-95 OT*---Fri,1/22 Miami L 88-112 200
Wed,1/20@Detroit L 86-92178-----------------------------------
Bostons-mid-ave.184+-6.5*rfe-----Wash.-mid-ave189+-29*rfe
Bostons-true-ave.184.5 ----------Wash.-true-ave 190-tad5.5
Bos./wash.-comb.MTave.=187+-3 rfet-- comb.M+-17.8 rfem
Head to Head: most recent
Thu, Dec 10 Boston at Washington104-102 L194½act. 206
(*indicates overtime which will not be used in this experiment)
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Boston at Washington7:00 PM
Tps-est.=196.5-9.5rfete-OT3 Actual opening line= 190
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Milwaukee at Miami7:30 PM
Milwaukee last five games totals-Miami last five games totals
Sat,1/30Miami W95-84-179---Sat,1/30@MilwaukL 84-95 -179
Wed,1/27 PhilaW 91-88-179----Fri,1/29@DetroitW 92-65 -157
Tue,1/26@DallasL107-108-209-Wed,1/27@ToronL103-111214
Sat,1/23MinnesoW 127-94-221-Mon,1/25ClevelanL91-92 -183
Fri,1/22@Toronto L 96-101-197-Sat,1/23SacramW115-84-199
Milw-mid-ave.200+-21rfe--------Mia-mid-ave.1851/2+-28.5rfe
Milw-true-ave.197----------------Mia-true-ave.186.5-tad10.5
Mil/Mia..-comb.MTave.=192.25+-7.7 rfet-comb.M=+-24.5rfem
Head to Head:Most recent:
Sat,1/30MiamiatMilwaukee 84-95 - L190Under act.179
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Milwaukee at Miami7:30 PM
Total-est.=185.6-6.6rfete-OT4 Actual opening line=1891/2
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Phoenix at New Orleans 8:00 PM
*Phoenixlast five games total*NewOrleanslast five games totals
Thu,1/28DallasW112-106-218Wed,1/27@GoldStW123-110233
Mon,1/25@UtahL115-124-239Mon,1/25@PortW98-97 -195
Sat,1/23GoldStW112-103-215Fri,1/22@MinnesotaW96-94-190
Fri,1/22ChicagoL104-115-219Wed,1/20MempW113-111 -224
Wed,1/20NewJerW118-94-212Mon,1/18San Ant.L 90-97 -187
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*Tue, Jan 26&Sun, Jan 31 were both OT games thus have a potential bearing factor for over
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*Sat,Jan23Fri,Jan29Sat,Jan30were OT games thus have a potential bearing factor for over
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Phoe-mid-ave.225.5+-13.5rfe--NewOr-mid ave.210+-23rfe
Phoe-true-ave.220.6------------NewOr-true-ave205.8-tad15
phoe/new.comb.MTave.=215.5+-10rfet-- comb.M=+-24.5 rfem
Head to Head:Most recent:
Thu,Nov.19 @ New Orleans L 103-110 L215und.-act.213
Wed, Nov 11 New Orleans W 124-104 L217½0ver-act.228
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Phoenix at New Orleans 8:00 PM 5 of last 15 games were OT
Total-est.=220.5+4rfete-OT2 Actual opening line=2101/2
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LA Lakers at Memphis 8:00 PM
LA Lakers-last five games totals/Memphis-last five games totals
Sun,1/31@BostonW90-89 -179-Fri,1/29@San AntL97-104-201
Fri,1/29@Phila W 99-91-190-Wed,1/27@Detroit W 99-93 -192
Wed,1/27@IndiW118-96-214-Mon,1/25 Orlando W99-94 -193
Tue,1/26@WashW115-103-218-Fri,1/22Okla City W86-84 -170
Sun,1/24@ToroL105-106-211-Wed,1/20@NewOrL111-113-224
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*, Jan 30 was an OT game for mepmhis thus having a potential bearing factor for the over
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LA-mid-ave.198.5+-19.5rfe--Memphis-mid ave.197+-27rfe
LA-true-ave.202.4------------Memphis-true-ave196-tad6.4
La/Memp.-comb.MTave=198.5+4-2.5rfet-- comb.M=+-23 rfem
Head to Head:Most recent:
Fri, Nov 6 Memphis W 114-98 -212
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LA Lakers at Memphis 8:00 PM
Total-est.=205+7rfete-OT3 Actual opening line=207
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Sacramento at Denver9:00 PM
Sacram.-last five games totals/Denver-last five games totals
Sat,1/30Charlot.L96-103-199-Sun,1/31@San AntW103-89-192
Fri,1/29@UtahL94-101-195-Fri,1/29@OklaCity L 84-101 -185
Tue,1/26Gold StW99-96-195-Wed,1/27@Hou. W 97-92 -189
Sat,1/23@MiamiL84-115-199-Mon,1/25CharlotW104-93 -197
Fri,1/22@OrlandoL84-100-184-Thu,1/21LA ClipW105-85 -190
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*, Jan 23 was an OT game for denver thus having a potential bearing factor for the over
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Sac-mid-ave.191.5+-7.5rfe--Denver-mid ave.191+-6 rfe
Sac-true-ave.194.5------------Denver-true-ave190.5-tad4
sac./den-comb.MTave.=192+2.5 -1rfet-- comb.M=+-6.75 rfem
Head to Head:Most recent:
01/09/2010-Sat.DEN-100-SAC-102-213-Under-act.202
12/28/2009-Mon-DEN-101-SAC-106-212-Under-act.207
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Sacramento at Denver9:00 PM
Total-est.=198.5+6rfete-OT3 Actual opening line=2101/2
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Dallas at Utah9:00 PM
Dallas.-last five games totals/-Utah-last five games totals
Thu,1/28@PhoeL106-112-218-Fri,1/29 Sac.W101-94 -195
Tue,1/26 MilwaW108-107-215-Wed,1/27@ Port.W106-95 -201
Sun,1/24@NY KnW128-78-206-Mon,1/25 Phoe.W124-115 -239
Fri, 1/22 @ Phila L 81-92-173-Sat,1/23 NewJer.W 116-83 -199
Wed,1/20@ WashW 94-93-187-Wed,1/20@SanAW105-98-203
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*, Jan 30 was an OT game for dallas thus having a potential bearing factor for the over
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Dallas-mid-ave.195.5+-22.5rfe--Utah-mid ave.217+-22 rfe
Dallas-true-ave.200------------Utah-true-ave207.5-tad7.5
Dal/utah-comb.MTave.=205+12-9.5rfet-- comb.M=+-22rfem
Head to Head:Most recent:
01/09/2010-Sat-UTA-111-DAL-93-195-Over-act.204
11/03/2009-Tue-UTA-85-DAL-96-202½-Under-act.181
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Dallas at Utah9:00 PM
Total-est.=199+6rfete-OT3 Actual opening line=1991/2
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Charlotte at Portland10:00 PM
Charlot-last five games totals/Port.-last five games totals
Sat,1/30@ Sac.W103-96-199-Fri,1/29@Hou.L100-104 -204
Fri,1/29@GoldSt.W121-110-231-Wed,1/27UtahL95-106 -201
Mon,1/25@DenverL93-104-195-Mon,1/25NewOrL97-98 -195
Fri,1/22@Atlanta L 89-103-192-Sat,1/23@Det.W 97-93-190
Mon,1/18 Sac. W 105-103-208-Wed,1/20@Phila.W98-90-188
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*, Jan 26&23 was OT games for Charlotte thus having a potential bearing factor for the over
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*, Jan 30&22 was OT games for Portland thus having a potential bearing factor for the over
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Charlot-mid-ave.211.5+-19.5rfe--Port.-mid ave.196+-8 rfe
Charlot-true-ave.205------------Port.-true-ave195.5-tad10.5
Char/Port-comb.MTave.=202+8.5-6.5rfet-comb.M=+-11.5rfem
Head to Head:Most recent:
11/14/2009-Sat-POR-80-CHR-74-171-Under-act.154
01/28/2009-Wed-CHR-74-POR-88 162
01/17/2009-Sat-POR-97-CHR-102 overtime
03/29/2008-Sat-CHR-93-POR-85 178
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Charlotte at Portland10:00 PM
Total-est.=183.5+12rfete-OT1 Actual opening line=1891/2
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